oh for crying in a bloody bucket ...
What is it with people that they think a few high-school science classes during which they day-dreamed about sex and music enables them to second-guess major parts of scientific consensus?
Thousands of scientists have poured tens of thousands of hours into decades of interlocking research that has gone through the normal process of publication in peer-reviewed journals, replication by others, attack by competing findings, and this has slowly bubbled up through the layers of science bodies and panels, to finally emerge as a consensus position at the international level.
Whether it is in fact what nature is actually busy doing is neither here nor there - the point is that no single person, group of people, or even a whole cluster of them can ever hope to come up with a better guess than what the consensus position provides.
Unless one assembles an entirely different cohort also composed of thousands of scientists labouring for tens of thousands of hours over decades also with billions of euros and dollars of funding, one will never arrive at a better guess than the current consensus position.
I wish to hell that this simple and rather self-bloody-evident penny would drop down the slot and hit the bell.
It doesn't matter if you think your favourite filmstar, hooker, evangelist, or medium thinks the consensus is wrong, they simply don't have a snowflakes chance in a blast furnace of being in the same planetary system for coming up with a better guess.
The consensus position, right or wrong as nature would know but isn't telling, is the best and only guess in town - like it, lump it, or shove it up your central orifice - it is the best guess that our species is capable of making, and that's the bloody end of it!