Re: Never extrapolate a curve close to a turning point
While your point 1. does make sense, I'm afraid I can only partially agree with point 2. and point 3. And by partially, I actually mean "not agree much at all".
First, your example about employees not being able to create mobile apps? Well, I don't think that has much relevance in the long term. We are talking about a new and emerging technology, which has been around for much shorter period of time than the rest of the industry. You choose to extrapolate from that? Are you sure the mobile app development market will look the same in 5-10 years time - and it will be just as inaccessible as it is now to people with lesser technical skills? I'm not sure at all. Not if you look back at what the history of computing has to teach us.
Secondly - your point 3 about the increasing complexity of IT - in a sense, it would be nice if that was the case - if the complexity of IT would bring more of the work into the hands of specialists. While it is true that there are plenty of fields in IT where one has to truly know one's stuff to make it - you neglect to take into account the fact that while IT has increased in complexity nonetheless over the years - a lot of that complexity has been moved deeper and deeper into the bowels of the beast - away from users and power users. IT has been on a path to "democracy" so to speak pretty much since its inception. Where are the "specialists" in long coats reigning over the data room - as gods supreme? Do you still require an engineer (or a team of them) to install a printer or a scanner for you? No - and the reason is because a lot of this technology has been simplified at the interface level sufficiently for even average users to handle it themselves - even if they don't understand what is under the hood/bonnet. And things are continuing relentlessly in that direction.
As to your web design example - I'm not sure where you've been the last 5-10 years - but you've obviously never heard of WordPress, or any of the other frameworks/templates based tools. Yes - you could say that people who don't know proper web design will end up with insecure Wordpress installations, or that a template based website is not a substitute for a proper, professional version. And that just installing a Wordpress site doesn't make one a web designer. And you would be right. But did we have tools available in '99 for an average user to get an interactive, database driven, dynamic content website up and going without advanced knowledge? Ten years ago anybody would have been shocked if they were shown a Wordpress website from today (specially one with a tasteful theme) and be told that somebody with virtually no webdesign expertise has put it together.
For good or for worse - that's where the world is going. Not back to the good old days when technical experts were scarce and paid in gold. Yes - like in any industry - true experts will still be able to command wages above their peers and be in demand no matter where the industry is going - within reason. The rest is just daydreaming. And I am working in this industry, and I am and will be affected by it every day - but that's just the way it is.