Re: The real surprise
To me the surprises are:
1. How static over time the overall market split reported by Statcounter between Windows, MacOS and Linux OS's has been.
2. How much Statcounter differs from LanSweeper and Statista on there assessment of W11 market penetration.
3. The growth in W11 has been at the expense of W10 installations, which would indicate people are running XP, 7 & 8 for a reason.
Given Apple's business model and the way they sell and obsolete MacBooks, I suspect they will have problems rapidly increasing their market share, because they are unable to leverage third-party production and sales networks or the installed base of Intel PC's. Their decision to EoL MacOS on Intel would seem to indicate they have no interest in challenging Microsoft's market dominance.
Obviously, Linux's market share is slowly growing (just under 2.5% according to Statcounter), so potential opportunity for something to light the blue touch paper, however, I suspect whatever that something is will come from-out-of-field...