Re: uk recruiters
I think the 2008 recession ended in 2009, but then double dipped in 2011, which is when unemployment peaked. The country has had positive growth since 2013 and continuously declining unemployment figures since 2011. But possibly we're involved in a practical example of the difference between the formal technical definition of a recession and the average economic wellbeing, rendering the issue moot?
I'm also aware that:
* the pound has dropped substantially versus the dollar during the uncertainty about Brexit; and
* several large companies have sworn they'll leave the UK if the UK leaves the EU.
I therefore believe that if we left the UK then:
* the uncertainty would increase — who are we going to be able to agree new trade deals with, what will they say and when? — and therefore the pound would likely drop further; and
* at least some of those companies probably mean it.
Therefore I stand by my assessment that a Brexit would lead to a[nother] painful recession.
I'd have dared imagined that the split was:
* Leavers: the pain would be a temporary market reaction that would last only until Britain had re-established its links with the world, at which point it could become stronger because all applicable regulations and decisions would consider the needs of the UK only; versus
* Remainers: the pain would be part of a market correction that revalued the UK according to its worth if not part of a larger trade bloc; the UK would subsequently remain weakened because it would not be a member of any group with the soft power and negotiating weight to get good deals for it. Furthermore, 50% of trade is with the EU and the EU would likely seek to punish the UK for its departure as a symbolic gesture, therefore ties to the mainland would be negatively affected for at least a generation.
... not so much that anybody really thinks that leaving wouldn't cause at least immediate pain.