Re: Relics of the Space Age
Elledan,
I'm a bit young for the original space age. But as I started reading into my brother's sci-fi collection in my early teens (in the mid-80s), and then started building my own, it was becoming painfully obvious that I'd missed the boat. Books written in the early 70s by Niven and Pournelle were talking about developments in spaceflight dated in the 90s, a decade that was rapidly approaching and yet we were still in the era of space shuttles being new and the Soviets flying to Salyut 7 (and then Mir) on trusty old Soyuz workhorses.
At 13, the year 2000 seemed like a lifetime away, even though it wasn't even 15 years. It was deeply disappointing. As an adult I came to accept it, that human spaceflight had stalled, and to take more of an interest in the new science we were gathering and the increasing sophistication of our various space probes. Which was fine, but not as cool as flying around in spaceships - and allowing me to dream of maybe being able to afford a trip up there myself.
But now technology is accelerating again like it was in the 60s. There's lot of new and exciting stuff happening in human spaceflight, and all the great science. But this looks like it might be more sustainable too. Relying just on government is a risk, because priorities can suddenly change - or they can just run out of cash. The same can happen with the private sector of course - Bezos might get bored and take his money elsewhere, leaving the promise of Blue Origin unfulfilled. But Musk has turned SpaceX into something that's commercially viable - so even if he loses interest, it ought to have a chance of keeping going. And it has developed capabilities that mean the price of getting to space dropping incredibly low - such that spacecraft might genuinely become a mass-produced item. Which will do incredible things to cost, and therefore make more things possible, bringing in more money and creating a virtuous circle.
I guess one downside is the risk. Even if we can reduce it, spaceflight is still incredibly dangerous (a similar risk to climbing Everest) - and as you do more of it, you increase the number of times you're rolling the dice until accidents become inevitable. It's one thing risking death to test a new ship or in pursuit of national prestige or for science or progress in spaceflight. It's a lot less attractive when that's just for the increased production of zero-gravity crysal widgets to make somebody's computer just a little bit faster. But I'm still pretty optimistic. Here's hoping for avoiding the disappointment that an earlier generation had to go through.