* Posts by I ain't Spartacus

10158 publicly visible posts • joined 18 Jun 2009

Elon Musk to step down as Twitter CEO: Help us pick his replacement

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Re: I nominate...

What about poor George?

But if we're going for someone to be Elon's puppet, I suggest a joint CEO-ship between Statler and Waldorf.

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Re: Clarkson?

He also punched Piers Morgan at an awards show. Sadly I don't think it was filmed though. But does prove he's not all bad...

US Air Force signs $344m deal for hypersonic Mayhem aircraft

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Re: Expendable

Drones are more expendable than aircraft. They're generally cheaper, and don't have a pilot.

Some drones are so cheap you only expect to use them a couple of times each, and don't mind when you lose one, you just unwrap one of the spares. Both sides in Ukraine are going online and buying up vast numbers of $500 drones that are either shot down or lost due to electronic warfare. They average about 4 days, acccording to the Ukranian MoD.

Some drones are expensive and very re-useable but still expendable. Take something like the Predator. Designed to loiter at medium height over the batttlefield for literaly hours giving intel to your ground troops and with the ability to launch a couple of Hellfire missiles. Now these are expensive, but anything hanging around over the enemy for that long is asking to get shot down eventually. Ukraine's (cheaper) Turkish-supplied Bayraktar donres fall into this category. They try to minimise risk, but they've also been used on missions where the operators knew they'd lose the drone. Like the Predator this mainly does recce, but has small missiles it can fire.

Then you've got the drone that can also be a missile. The Iranian Shahed that Russia has bought about a thousand of and has been chucking at Ukraine's power system. It can land, and do recce. But I don't think it has missiles. However it can carry a small warhead. You just don't get the drone back if you use it in that mode. I guess, because it can also be re-usable for recce, it becomes an expendable drone.

This is going to be a big purchasing dilemma for ministries of defence around the world. The cheap drones die in huge numbers, but are very useful. Something better, that can resist electronic warfare would be good - so the enemy can't so easily choose to blind an area of your front line. But those might not be all that much more survivable, and will certainly be much more expensive. So do you want very cheap and good enough some of the time, or quite expensive and better, but fewer in number?

Then you've got the really expensive stuff like Predator, which costs as much as a small aircraft but is possibly only survivable in counter-insurgency warfare. Or something almost as big and almost as capable but much cheaper like Bayraktar or the bit less good Iranian Shahed.

A lot is happening in this space, and a lot of money is getting spent. And now everyone's panicking about building anti-drone defences - which is then going to lead to further changes in drone technology.

Devil's lettuce: Toxic weed harvested with baby spinach causing delirium in Australia

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It's a conspiracy!

It's either militant vegetarians trying to entice the kids to eat their veg - or the Bacon Defence League trying to put people off the evils of salad.

Eurozone plans to formalize passenger data, improve security

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Re: Border, what border?

Sounds like a stealthy partial rollback of Schengen to me

There have already been several, not stealthy, partial roll-backs of Schengen - taken as emergency measures and never reversed. But Schengen still soldiers on - and I suspect is too popular and useful to ever kill, even if there will always be exceptions.

My Belgian ID card, for example, wasn't a valid travel document within the Schengen zone because I was a UK citizen, so still required my passport. I never looked into what would happen if I'd been a citizen of a different Schengen country living in Belgium. I supect the same, although in that case I'd have obviously been able to travel on my own country's ID card. I'm guessing that didn't work for the UK because we didn't have any ID card to use.

This sytem is going to cover intra-Schengen flights, but you need to remember that Schengen is supposed to be a border free zone inside, which means that extra empasis is supposed to then be put on guarding the external borders of the zone. So that each country is responsible for every member's border security. That's the excuse that Austria and the Netherlands gave for vetoing Romania's entry into the Schengen scheme last week.

Server broke because it was invisibly designed to break

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Megaphone

Re: The Interlock and Health and Safety

If I can't carry a tray on stairs, then how am I to get my cup of tea from the kettle in the office kichen (ground floor) to my desk on the second?

I warn you, there are serious health and safety implications here! If you stop me from getting my tea, you are likely to require immediate medical attention.

China reportedly bars export of homebrew Loongson chips to Russia – and everywhere else

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RUSI have done some interesting tear-downs of Russian kit recovered in Ukraine. And they're absolutely full of Western chips. GPS chips, Inertial guidance chips, little attitude sensors on silicon. I think the average modern Russian cruise missile has something like 15-20 different chips sourced from the US and Western Europe. Some of these are quite specialised, and therefore relatively easy to control the supply of. Because only a limited number of customers need them. So if a new customer comes along, wanting lots, then it ought to raise an alarm.

I'm sure lots of this stuff can be done with generalised chips, which are going to be easier to get hold of, but that means they're going to need to be physically bigger, need more power, give off more heat and need speicalist programming (and therefore testing) by the Russians. So while they can be replaced, it's probably not as easy as you think - and may require major re-designs to the weapon. Re-designing a weapon means you need a new spare parts supply chain, and you have to re-train the maintenance staff. This is one of the legitimate reasons that military stuff is often not using state-of-the-art components and yet still costs more.

Non-experts always look at the specs and the size of the bangs. And miss out stuff like maintenance, compatibility and shelf-life, when talking about weapons systems.

However, stuff I'm reading, from military experts who know way more than me, suggests that Russia's production lines are still grinding out their various flavours of missiles. Often only a handful a month, so way less than they're using up, but it does seem likely that they've either been surprisingly quick at finding ways round sanctions, or they were just sensible and bought stockpiles of the chips they needed. Supposedly Russia is only producing somethine like 12 Kalibr cruise missiles a month, for example. How hard/expensive could it be to have say 3 years of stock of any hard to get components on hand?

On the other hand, they source their tanks' thermal sights from France. Seemingly even after weapons sales sanctions were imposed in 2014. Thanks France! I'm sure they've got a few in stock there too, but they aren't going to be getting a replacement for that. That's a technology they might have to buy in from China (if China will sell) or go back to much worse older tech - and suffer a significant battlefield disadvantage. I don't know how long it would take to develop domestically - it was a significant NATO advantage 30 years ago, but I'm guessing modern tech makes it easier and cheaper to achieve.

Of course re-designing weapons is less of a problem during a war. There's less paperwork and more urgency. Plus rules on testing will tend to get relaxed. Especially if you've got no choice. Where testing can often end up being, "try it on the battlefield and then make a new version once we've found out what all the problems are."

Voice assistants failed because they serve their makers more than they help users

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Re: "... they serve their makers more than they help users"

My point was not that they may in fact provide not provide a service -- it was that this is not the middle man's primary motivation.

That's how relationships work in any society larger than a small town. Once it's not possible to know everybody, or even at least know every family group, then our relationships have to change. Because altruism is much less likely to happen at a scale where nobody knows everybody.

We pay our doctors and surgeons quite well. It has been shown from changes to the British pension system in recent years, that they will withdraw their labour at a certain point if not paid enough. Basically a lot of older consultants were making enough to work part time rather than full time, and a lot were stuffing huge amounts into their pensions because of the lovely tax advantage. When that loophole was closed a bunch of them suddenly switched to part time working. I'm sure that most doctors have a vocation, but it's also a job, and they'll mostly stop doing it if not paid.

The same is even more true for Amazon. There's not much vocation in retail. Unless it's your dream to run a cupcake shop or something...

This idea that profit is somehow bad, or dirty, is stupid. We incentivise people to do stuff we want them to do by paying them. Someone has to be a traffic warden, or it would be impossible to drive through town centres because of all the parked cars. Someone has to teach kids, though again there are more people who actually want to do that, somebody has to stack the shelves in our supermarkets. They all want paying.

I've not been ripped off because someone has got paid to do stuff I want. And the point is, if I don't want it then I probably won't pay. So they actually have to give me a benefit in order to get my money. Unless they're the government, and can threaten to lock me up if I don't pay my taxes...

Now Google, don't charge for search. But the only way they can harvest all the personal data from Android is to make it roughly as good as the competition, because people acutally pay for their phones. And the same is true for stuff like Alexa. They're trying to get people to pay for a gadget, which means that gadget has got to provide some value. If they want to stay a middle man, they've got to satisfy their customers.

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Re: Unexpected input..... to the human

Mast1,

There is an upside to the current explosion of tech gadgets. Stuff that was expensive is now ubiquitous. 15 years ago you could buy a smartphone sized unit that was a screen with camera attached to magnify text for users with very poor eyesight. They were £800 each. Nowadays you can do the same with a £50 smartphone.

The difference is the expensive device also had the camera on a little wheeled pod with a light, so you could run it over a page without moving the screen. And had software to change the colours to improve contrast - though the magnifier app on my phone has that software. Fifteen years ago I didn't buy that magnifier, because it wasn't worth it, and I had various much cheaper hand magnifying glasses - nowadays my smartphone isn't quite as good at the job, but is also effectively free because I'd have had one anyway. I don't know if you can still buy the low vision aid kit - given it's being competed with by something that's cheap but mostly good enough.

If your Mum found the voice assistant helpful the answer is to get her one activated by a button. So it only talks to her when she expects it. But I don't know if Alexa devices could be made to only work that way. Siri can be, on an iPhone - Google Assistant could also be set up to respond if the button was pressed. But that presumes she could find a convenient way to use the phone.

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Re: Don't know.

Speech isn't a great interface. It's fine for simple on-off commands. But then we don't have much home automation. Also what's the point of telling the washing machine or dishwasher to turn on by voice, when you're already standing right next to it to press the button, having just loaded it. Plus you need to select which program to use (probably only 1 of 2 of the 30 on offer...)

Asking Alexa for the weather is dead easy. But what about the answer? If you're in LA the answer might be hot and blue skies all day plus peak temperature. But if you're in Britain you need to know that it will rain this morning and be sunny this afternoon, with a chance of showers, and a tiny chance of snow overnight. That's much easier to see as a little graph. So you could buy the Amazon Alexa Show (or whatever it's now called) which is a home speaker with a little screen. But why not just get your phone out.

Again, "Alexa turn on the heating" - easy. Alexa, program the heating to come on at 6am week days, 7am weekends with the thermostat set to 21°. On week days turn it off again at 8, at weekends lower it to 18° after 9 then...

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Re: "... they serve their makers more than they help users"

The idea that a middle man exists for the end user's benefit is patent nonsense.

No it isn't.

Amazon specifically won their massive market share by being very, very good for consumers. They were often a bit cheaper than shops, but not the cheapest prices on the internet. But they beat the shops because you don't have to go out to get your stuff, and they beat the cheaper websites because they had a vast range all in one place and really good customer service.

They've become bigger, and their site more user-hostile in my opinion. Search on the site seems designed to show you lots of stuff you probably didn't want in order to merge the original excellent Amazon giant web store with some sort of ebay/Etsy type thing - but the customer service remains good.

Amazon as a middle man are providing a service to several different sets of clients. Running a web shop at scale isn't that easy, so if you're a manufacturer you may prefer to just concentrate on making stuff. Rather than also doing the messy bits of retail. Customer service is expensive.

It's a bit like the aritcle author's dig at "late capitalism". Who says it's ending anytime soon? Captitalism isn't how the economy works anyway - it's a description of who owns stuff. The economy is a mixed market economy with varying levels of government intervention in different sectors - and so far nothing better has come along.

Perhaps voice assistants have so-far failed because of evil capitalist running-dogs? Or perhaps it's just because voice isn't a very good interface for anything at all complex.

Plus its an integration issue. The makers of the voice kit are all internet companies. But the stuff we want to control is all made by industrial conglomerates - and it takes time for the two to get together and get organised. Which is a similar reason why few of us have home-automation - a lot of the tech has been around for decades - and became very cheap in the last one but that doesn't solve all the practical issues of getting it installed and integrated. Or even just getting people used to the idea.

FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried charged with fraud by just about everyone

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Re: Perspective

elsergiovolador,

Whether there was a scheme generating some profit or not is irrelevant.

Incorrect. A ponzi scheme is a pure fraud, where there's no underlying investment and a few early investors are paid in order to make it look real. If you have a scheme that actually generates profits as well, then it becomes a pyramid scheme or just a normal fraud. A pyramid scheme being where you get the victims to recruit your next victims for you.

The reason that government pensions aren't a ponzi scheme is that the country has an inexhaustible supply of taxpayers. In fact, each group of "investors" in this government "scam" have children who are then the next victims of the scheme. So it can go on for ever. What destroys ponzi and pyramid schemes is that they run out of victims. What makes governments work is that they've got most of the guns and control of an area of land where lots of people live and where lots of economic activity happens, that they can tax.

Now obviously there's a risk, this being a democracy, that the next generation can vote not to pay my pension. The bastards! With their long hair and their terrible music where you can't even hear the words... But there are two things working against that. Firstly, old people tend to vote more than young people, so they're likely to lose if they try. And also, if they vote to get rid of my pension, they're also voting away any hope of getting theirs. And they have to pay mine in order for theirs to happen. Unless we get a really cunning generation of young people who decide to vote to abolish our pensions, then when they get old vote to re-establish the pension scheme so they can get it...

This is also why fiat currencies generally work and crypto coins generally don't. Governments have longevity and the power to force people to pay them tax. Which means they have the ability to make promises of payment far into the future - with a high likelihood that they'll actually make them. Promises that will therefore be believed. The modern British state has a 350 year history of having a national debt which it has never once defaulted on. That gives it quite a good credit history.

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Re: Perspective

Under the pensions act 2008 in the UK your employer is required to deduct money from your salary and put it into a private pension scheme. If you don't have a pension scheme they are required to enroll you in one.

Yes. And if you don't want them to, they are also required by the same law to stop doing it. It is a scheme you are automatically opted in to, but can opt out of, in order to harness people's natural laziness to get them to save.

So no dancing on the head of any pins required. If you don't want it, don't sign up to it.

Also not a ponzi scheme by the way, because private pensions hold actual assets.

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Re: Perspective

You have literally described a Ponzi scheme.

No I haven't.

From the OED: Ponzi Scheme - a form of fraud in which belief in the success of a non-existent enterprise is fostered by the payment of quick returns to the first investors from money invested by later investors.

Origin

named after Charles Ponzi (died 1949), who carried out such a fraud (1919–20).

I don't pay my taxes as an investment. I do it in order to fund the government. And, of course, becuase they can lock me up if I don't. That funding pays for the stuff the government spends today.

So long as there are still people in the country in twenty years time, I hope that I'll get to draw a pension. The system's been working for the last 110 years. I'm forced to hope it'll continue to work for another forty.

But it's not a Ponzi scheme because it's not a fake investment. Ponzi IIRC claimed that he had a scheme to make money from foreign postal orders. And needed investors' money to make it work. There was no such scheme and he just paid a few people out of the next lot of people's money to "prove" it worked, while keeping the rest.

Government pensions work because the state is a continuously existing entity, expected to outlive its individual citizens. Government pensions are also not a scam, because nobody is lying to you about this. Governments openly admit this is how it works all the time.

Private pensions are a genuine investment where I entrust my money to a heavily regulated company, and they take a profit for holding it in various bonds and shares. It has risks, but hopefully in twenty years I'll have a big chunk of cash to spend on my retirement. Plus a governmetn pension to keep me in cat food and Werther's Originals.

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Re: Perspective

elsergiovolador,

You don't understand pensions.

In the UK we pay taxes. National insurance (though not exclusively) is there to cover our pensions. It's not an investment. I've paid national insurance for over thirty years in order to pay the pensions of the people already receiving them. My pension will be covered by younger people, some of them not yet born - if I can manage to survive at least another 18 years... This is how governments cover their spending. We're living longer and having fewer children, so this is being corrected in richer countries by allowing more immigration and raising retirement ages.

We then have private pension schemes. Which we aren't forced to pay into. Which are regulated. They invest on the stock market, but they also have significant holdings of safer bonds. They are heavily regulated. In the UK we now opt people into these schemes by default, in order to nudge them into saving more, but nobody is forced to join.

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Re: Ban on what?

Just occurred to me: what if we simply ban /bailouts?

Banking is useful. OK, stop laughing at the back there!

Banking does several socially useful things. It gives us a relatively safe place to keep our money, rather than under the mattress. It gives us relatively safe ways to move money around, and manage it.

It also allows liquidity transformation. This is the act of turning lots of people's amounts of short-to-medium-term savings into large blocks of long term money that can be loaned-out in the form or mortgages or loans for business investment.

The risk of this is that panics can cause everyone to try and withdraw their savings at once from a bank, and they can't get the mortgages paid back in the few days they have to meet that demand. Hence we have Central Bank guarantees to stop solvent but illiqid banks from going bust, and allow this socially and economically useful business to continue. It's very hard (to impossible) to get economic growth without investment.

In order to be worthy of being trusted with this bail-out facility, our banks need to be heavily regulated and as boring as possible. Lending sensibly and usefully. Leaving the much riskier loans to the financial markets and investors who hopefully better understand the risks, and can cope with the inevitable losses.

America's nuclear fusion 'breakthrough' is super-hot ... yet far from practical

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Happy

The solution to the consumption of too much cheese is to slow down the cheese input rate by alternating it with port input.

Obviously this can have its own downsides if continued for too long.

Christmas planning is currently happening, and I am therefore expending a certain amount of my mental capacity at all times on determining the correct amounts of cheese, port and other (less important) items required to make the festive season go with a oh God, oh God, oh God how do I move from this sofa bang.

Nobody mention Mr Creosote.

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Stop

I must challenge the very premise of your post! It is not possible to have too much cheese!

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Me no expert on fusion.

The British based research you remember was the reactor at Culham. Which I think was the final experiment from the progam. Theirs is an old project to make a scale model (one third scale?) of a big magnetically confined fusion reactor design that might eventually hopefully be used for generating electricity.

They achieved a huge amount of power, but didn't achieve more than was put in. However their unit isn't supposed to. It's part of an international test program. The new reactor to replace it is the ITER reactor, that's been building in France for the last decade or so. The last test at Culham was to test concepts for that. ITER has billions in funding from Japan, USA, Canada and various European countries.

This US experiment is about firing lasers at small capsules of fuel that give you tiny bursts of fusion. I don't know if it would be even feasible to build an electricity generating system round this concept, or if it's more about basic research. But I've been seeing lots of stories from various places about the idea, so it's clearly an area where a lot of research is happening. It has the advantage that you can do your testing at a much smaller scale than having to build a full size fusion plant, without even knowing if it's going to work. I make no pretence to understand the area of fusion research.

US Air Force tests its first fully functional hypersonic missile

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Re: Oh boy

However your horizon is much bigger if you simply put your radar on a big stick. Or even a hilltop.

Air defence destroyers put their radars on masts. Or even this Giraffe lorry-mounted radar link to Wiki - which uses a hydraulic mount to give it a larger horizon.

ChatGPT has mastered the confidence trick, and that's a terrible look for AI

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Re: The AI Kessler Syndrome

Much of the internet is already filled with AI generated bullshit. Or at least bullshit cut & pasted from various sources in order to fool Google into ranking the things it links to higher, or to sell really low quality adverts at the end of articles from sites that ought to know better. Humans probably neve see most of it, so I guess you can rule it out by avoiding pointing your AI at it for training.

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Devil

Re: > This cat is not getting back in the bag.

The problem isn't finding reasons not to buy wolves season tickets. Those are legion. It's finding the bits of the set of reasons to buy Wolves season tickets that doesn't intersect with the set of reasons to require sectioning under the Mental Healt Act...

Italy, Japan, UK to jointly launch sixth-gen fighter jet by 2035

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Re: @Throatwarbler Mangrove - Yay!

anon coward,

If the Russian government didn't want to totally fuck up their economy, society and military - they shouldn't have launched an unprovoked and disastrous war of aggression against their neighbours. But they did. All the other effects you're complaining about stem from that poor decision. Not helped by certain countries in Europe deciding to rely on this same Russian government as a strategic and economic partner (cough! Germany cough!).

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Potemkine,

Developing a parallel program to an already existing European one is a mistake. Italy should know better.

Perhaps Italy have learned from dealing with France before? Typhoon and Tornado were both successful European programs that didn't involve France. So perhaps it's Germany that's got it wrong?

Also of course it was a joint European program that split, with Sweden, Italy and the UK going one way and Germany, France and Spain the other. Though Sweden seem to have dropped out of both now. I'm presuming both sides had good reasons for this.

Obviously some of it is politics and industrial policy. Got to win enough work for "national champions". But there are also military requirements. Like the French want one suitable to fly from their carriers. Everyone else in Europe with carriers is transitioning from Harrier to F35.

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Re: So how many years late

I reckon they'll get the demonstrator flying near enough to the planned 2030.

The idea that the first models will be in service by 2035 seems a bit... Optimistic? Unlikely? Delusional?

On the other hand F35 has been built now - as the first high production rate stealth aircraft. And a lot of the problems with that program are now software related. So if this can be less ambitious with the software - maybe it won't be as horribly delayed?

But the defence-industrial relationship with Japan is also quite new. So there could always be a massive falling-out there, to make things more fun.

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Re: 'Meddling ministers'

cryptopants,

This is why getting Japan on board is such a God-send. One of the big problems with Typhoon is that Germany, Italy and Spain wouldn't spend money on many of the upgrades. Not that our MoD are paragons of virtue or anything, but it's a problem with many European partners. Obviously not helped by the end of the Cold War slowing the whole program down. Eurofighter is a damned good aircraft now, with lots of shiny upgrades to the radars just coming on stream - which ought to have happened 5-10 years ago.

France do spend better on keeping things up to date, but are terrible industrial partners - who've a history of joining European aircraft programs only to bugger-off in a hissy-fit halfway through. Germany and Spain are currently suffering from this in the FCAS program, where Dassault are trying to get them to ponly up half the money in a joint program, while Dassault keep all the IP to themselves. I suspect the project will go ahead for political reasons - but Typhoon and Tornado were the two big European successes - both of which France abandoned halfway through and were taken to success by the UK, Germany and Italy (with Spain also in Typhoon).

Japan do have a habit of spending well on defence. And hopefully, having a partner willing to open their chequebooks for updates will keep our government honest about regular spending on regular updates. If we could persuade Germany to jump ship and join us that would also be great for getting a decent chunk of initial orders. But I think FCAS have recently patched up their differences sufficiently that it'll last another few years - at which point it'll be too late to jump ship and still be a major industrial partner.

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Devil

Re: What I really want to know

It'll be a double bluff. They're name the AI Clippy.

"It looks like you're trying start World War III. Can I help you with that?"

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Re: Old hat?

Jellied Eel,

What in the last 10 months of clusterfuck convinces you that Russia is going to win the war in Ukraine?

I mean it's possible they might win. Wars are uncertain after all. And being able to outlast Ukraine is clearly the thing Russia are trying - after the failure of multiple offensives and destruction of a large part of their peacetime army.

But Ukraine aren't going to run out of ammo, unless the Western powers abandon them. Which, again, is possible but looks unlikely. Ukraine aren't even out of Soviet calibre artillery ammo, because having exhausted their own, and Eastern Europe's stocks there are factories in Poland and elsewhere churning out new shells. Plus countries like Britain have been buying old stock from all sorts of places (like Pakistan) and shipping them in. Not that it looks like either side can keep up previous rates of fire. Even for Ukraine who've now been given NATO calibre artillery, which there are still stocks for, and orders have been placed for more.

The two big worries I think are tank shells, and air defence. I don't know if we can start building Soviet era tank ammo for Ukraine or if the long-term answer will be to re-equip them with Leopard or the US Marine Corps' old Abrams. Leopard would be better (it's lighter) but Germany are a porblem.

Air defence is the opposite problem. We're now equipping Ukraine with NASAMS and IRIS-T which use exisiting air-to-air missiles as ammo, of which NATO has large stocks. But we don't have many launchers to give - and are having to resort to buying new ones and shipping them to Ukraine off the production lines. Which is slow. A stop-gap might be to dump old stuff from storage on them, like Hawk.

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Re: A Quantitative Easing Program in Military Guise?

Your point is taken w.r.t. military preparedness - but not necessarily piloted aircraft. From that battlefield, counter attacking drones and missiles would seem to be the equalizer.

Russia and Ukraine are artillery armies. Russia does have a decently sized well-funded air force as well, but it's not been terribly effective because they've not been able to fly safely over most of the battlefield. Due to failiures in electronic warfare and SEAD/DEAD (suppression / destruction of enemy air defences).

NATO forces are generally much more reliant on air power, and do train for dealing with enemy air defences. Which we'd need as we're not as heavy on artillery as the Russians - though ours is probably more accurate. We also have much better precision weapons for hitting air defences.

Compare the beginning of Desert Storm to Russia's invasion of Ukriane. Both Iraq and Ukraine had large, integrated air defence networks with lots of ex Soviet kit. Though Iraq's was older than Ukraine's but on the other hand it was 30 years ago and so were the coalition weapons. In 1991 we saw a couple of days where something like 1,500 aircraft did almost nothing but attack enemy air defences for 2 days (with the odd strike on command and control nodes). Russia didn't bother with any of that and just invaded with no preparation - which went about as well as you'd expect.

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Re: Control Input / Drone-Response Lagginess

The numerical superiority is supposed to be somewhat solved by the various "loyal wingmen" programs. The idea is that you'll have some manned aircraft to do command and control, and a bunch of drones with them. Although nobody's quite sure of what types.

Plus, modern smart missiles, which are already drones in one sense. Take the Meteor air-to-air missile. It's being updated to have a whole bunch of electronic warfare abilities. It's already got a throttlable motor, so it can be set to cruise along slowly in order to get a longer range, or allow an aircraft to fire two at an opponent, one that goes in at full speed, and one that follows to maybe finish the job. The new version that the UK and Japan are cooperating on will be able to act as an anti-radar missile - so it can be fired at enemy airbourne or ground jammers or radars. But also will be able to do jamming itself, so can act as a decoy for its own aircraft. As well as still being one of the best air-to-air missiles out there.

Or the Spear 3 system, based on the already existing Brimstone missile. Where you can fire say 8 from one Typhoon and tell them to go to a particular gridsquare and kill any artillery pieces they find - and if they can't find any try and kill tanks or surface to air missile systems - or whatever you prioritise from their targe database. Brimstone can already do that (though at shorter ranges), but the next generation ones will be able to talk to each other (swarm) and so share information and effectively act as their own target finders. It's being called a missile, not a drone, but really it's both.

The three big Western projects all involve a large element of drones. From what I've read the Franco-German-Spanish FCAS is perhaps prioritising the drones to fly with current aircraft and the new aircraft itself is supposed to be with us at the end of the next decade. Whereas the British-Italian-Japanese program that also used to be called FCAS (fortunately isn't any more) is trying to get a prototype flying by 2030 - so it can start coming into service in 2035. Both the Japanese and British have been doing design work for the last few years (not sure about Italy) and Sweden seem to have dropped out, but I've seen speculation they're just getting a new bunch of Gripens delievered and so are more interested in the drone side than the new aircraft side at the moment.

I don't think anyone knows what's going to work. So air forces are going to try everything.

TSMC founder says 'globalization is almost dead' as Asian foundry giant expands in US

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Re: The Indian elephant in the room

The problem with India taking over from China is that India has historically been a much harder market to invest in. The government tends to make investing in the economy awkward and bureaucratic, as well as sometimes difficult to get your money out afterwards. Which isn't going to stop people buying goods made in India, but makes it less likely that foreign companies will invest heavily in building up manufacturing there.

However a lot of companies are reassessing their committments in China. But that may just be a blip, and people may bury their heads in the sand and hope for the best. Or there may start to be big moves.

The Chinese government are now starting to insist on board representation and Communist Party cells in local management, which with their legal system means if you invest there you are setting yourself up to end up losing control of that whole subsidiary in future. The Ukraine war and the whole pull-out from Russia has also been instructive.

Nobody (except US and UK intelligence) believed Putin when he talked about Ukraine not being a real country and how it ought to be part of Russia. Right up until he invaded. Xi is saying similar things about Taiwan, while massively investing in the capabilities needed to conquer the place. Maybe we should at least consider believing he means it? In which case we can hopefully do things peacefully to avoid war, by a combination of persuasion and arming Taiwan, so it doesn't look worth it. But if that's Xi's real objective there's likely to be economic consequences that are might seriously effect trade with China. Hence building your entire business on trade with China is starting to look increasingly like a massive gamble with incalculable odds.

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Re: Modern War: Electronics, Electronics, Electronics

Very good homework. Now add the French exploits.

Don't know nuffink about no froggy stuff guv! 'S all Greek to me. I've not read much about WWI in decades, though I keep meaning to. I went to the school of "Lions Led by Donkeys", which I believe is more-or-less bollocks, so ought to read some more modern history about it.

I'm thinking of going on one of those battlefield tours to WWI/II sites in France and/or Germany next year, taking Mum. So that might be an incentive to read up beforehand. There's a cool tour that does guided visits in Northern France and Belgium of battlefields and breweries, so you do one of each a day. Very tempting, but I doubt I can sell that to Mum. Which is a shame, that sounds like real homework.

Also need to see if there's any information out there now about where her Grandad was fighting - I think there's a lot online nowadays. Mum lived at his place after their house got bombed in 1940.

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Re: Modern War: Electronics, Electronics, Electronics

Potemkine,

Not that I go along with the OPs thesis. But I can give you a few examples from WW1 off the top of my head. Radio was new and had interesting effects. Electronic warfare wasn't much of a thing (as far as I've read) but there were serious battlefield effects from either failing to use tech, or using it badly so the other side could exploit it.

The German High Seas Fleet did most of their communications by radio when in port. Rather than using runners or phone lines. Thus the British were able to track that they were in port without recon and when they were planning something (by the increased chatter). Hence Beatty's battlecruiser squadron were mostly in the right place at the right time to foil their plans (when he wasn't being incompetent and fucking everything up). I don't think we broke their naval codes and were reading the actual messages - so it was just traffic analysis.

Conversely the Royal Navy hadn't really got the hang of tactical radio comms yet, and were still using signal flags! Beatty (again) nearly fucked up the battle of Jutland with pisspoor use of radio, but Jellicoe guessed what was going on and got there in time to save him anyway.

The Russian 1914 offensive in Poland vastly outnumbered the Germans. But due to having to split their army due to terrain, and the commanders hating each other, a much smaller German force were able to defeat them in detail. Aided massively by the Russian HQs communicating by radio, without using code. Battles of Tannenberg / Masurian Lakes.

I've not read about it, only seen it mentioned on a documentary on the battle of the Somme, so don't know how long it lasted or how widespread amongst other armies. But the British army in 1916 were using unshielded cables for field telephones in their trench systems. The Germans had a handy box that could pick up the electronic signals transmitted through the soil and so listen into their frontline communications. Trench lines were often very close, plus underground tunnelling under no-man's land.

Oh and the Zimmerman Telegram of course. Britain having cut Germany's telegraph cables, they were forced to use the British cables to send their messages to try and persuade Mexico to invade Texas. Admittedly that was sent via US diplomatic cable (rude!) as President Wilson had allowed the Germans to use US facilities in order to help peace initiatives. But US cables went through the UK too, and we'd broken the German diplomatic ciphers. Then there was just the dilemma of how to tell the US that Germany were planning to invade them, but oh by the way we're reading your diplomatic cables sorry about that old chap. Still trust us! We only want you to join our little war, we've no motive to lie...

North Korea using freelance techies to fund missiles and nukes

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An interesting attitude to raising taxes

North Korea has a history of raising revenue in odd ways. Back in the day there were convincing reports that up a third of the world's fake Viagra was being manufactured in North Korea. I presume it's much cheaper now, so there are generics that people can get hold of instead and less money for Nork nukes.

North Korean embassies are also expected to be self-funded. I don't know if they also have to send cash back to the government, but they have to raise enough money in-country to pay their salaries as well as whatever spying (and sometimes even diplomacy) they have to do for their day jobs.

There was a story a few years ago that they'd managed to attract some Russian rocket scientists - who were involved in Russia's solid fuel ICBMs. If I remember right they were supposedly from the submarine missile program. Which would make their missile program a lot more dangerous - given solid rockets are a lot easier to deploy and launch. Assuming they hadn't been sent by Putin, even for him I'd have thought helping North Korea to better nuclear tech was a bit to chaotic - so I'm guessing people like that are going to want lots of un-traceable hard currency.

US Air Force reveals B-21 Raider stealth bomber that'll fly the unfriendly skies

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Facepalm

Re: B22 incoming...

A single F117 has been shot down and this proves that all stealth aircraft are bollocks! Well apart from the brilliant new Russian and Chinese ones (that have never been in combat) obviously! They're ace!

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Re: Shades of TV detector vans ?

Geez Money,

I get the impression that the F22 is still absolutely head and shoulders over everything in the pure air superiority role. Even the F35.

I wasn't aware that they had problems updating it though.

However I guess a pure air superiority fighter is almost like nuclear weapons, in that you never want to use it. Because if you're forced to use it, you've fucked up and got yourself into a full scale war with a nuclear power with an advanced air force. For everything else, your multirole aircraft are going to be more than good enough. Having it is a nice deterrent though, given the stories you sometimes here from other NATO fighter pilots of doing practice engagements with F22.

Also F22 doesn't have Link 16. Which is one of the things that makes the F35 so useful. Because even a few F35s mixed in with other forces give you a powerful command & control advantage. As well as intel gathering and electronic warfare. I doubt it's close to being as powerful as the US Navy's EF18 Growlers, but does a lot more than the mostly defensive EW pods that NATO's air forces have tended to field.

So I can see why they might feel that F35 is good enough. Particularly if the F35 is so good at working with other planes in the strike package, that also ought to make it work really well as a drone commander. Once we've got semi-autonomous combat drones flying around.

Also once the wankers at Lockheed Martin pull their fingers out so the RAF can get Meteor integrated onto F35 as well. Especially the next version of it, which is going to be able to act as an anti-radiation missile for SEAD/DEAD, but also be an electronic warfare decoy. Added to the extremely long range and throttleable motor it'll be able to play all sorts of silly games. Put Spear 3 on as well, and you've got an aircraft that can do air-to-air or air-to-ground without having to use radar at all. Sneaky-beaky.

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Re: Shades of TV detector vans ?

Jou,

I was talking about a "standard" squadron of 12. But nowadays it could probably be any number. It's the air force equivalent of an army company, which could be anything from 150 infantry down to 10-11 tanks each with a crew of 3.

I think you can get a new F35A for under $80m now - although I say "now", if you pay the cheapest price you probably won't get your first delivery for another 5 years at least. Sales volume has gone up, so price has come down, but waiting times are also up.

I believe that's less than you'd pay for a new Typhoon, Rafale or Gripen - though I think the flight and maintenance costs of F35 might be higher.

But even if they get a bit cheaper, 2 x B21 is going to get you 15-20 F35As. The F35 can only carry a limited payload and remain stealthy, and will need to use tanker aircraft closer to the target, so it's a lot less suitable for some missions. They do carry a lot of bombs a long way and are very stealthy though - but they really are the luxury item of the multi-million dollar shiny military aircraft market.

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Re: Shades of TV detector vans ?

Define cheap enough, I guess.

Volume lowers prices. But the difference between ordering 100 and 150 isn't all that much. Although if you've amortized the cost of the R&D over the first hundred, then that's maybe $50m less on the price of the 101st. Other costs, like tooling, are also already accounted for. But even $600m a pop seems awfully expensive, given that would get you three quarters of a squadron of F35s. Although the operating costs of multiple aircraft are going to be higher than those for just one, even if the B21 has the same issues with coatings the B2 does. But at least the option will exist, while the production lines are open - and ordering a small number of extras can keep those lines open for a while if the production rate isn't too high. I don't know if there's too much regret they didn't make more B2s - but I'm sure the Air Force wish they had a few more F22s.

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Re: How many more manned warplanes will there be?

Ken G,

How many more manned warplanes will there be?

I don't think anybody knows. That's why you hear about stuff being "optionally manned". So you can have it pilotless on very easy, or very dangerous, missions - if that tech pans out. But fly it when you have to. Which might be all the time. Seeing as we don't yet have the capability to fly such complex systems reliably autonomously - and neither do we want to give full firing authority to the computers.

If the enemy can block your communications, for example, then your autopilot is completely on its own, and you can't update mission parameters after its taken off.

One of the things we've learnt about drone-use in Ukraine is that electronic warfare is extemely effective. It's just that it's very patchy. Russia keeps finding that their own EW is screwing up their own systems, just as much as it buggers up Ukraine's. Worse, in the early days of the war they found that their own electronic warfare once turned on, couldn't be turned off. Because unless commanders were physically able to reach the EW units, they couldn't get through to them, to tell them to turn it all off. This speaks to a lack of practice.

Since even NATO rarely train using our full spectrum of EW, I doubt we're sure how we'd fight under those conditions. One thing that's worked when the EW is turned on is to use cheap drones in dumb mode, where they just fly a pre-planned route, and bring back their footage for analysis. Rather than directing artillery strikes live, which is the much sexier footage the Ukrainians like to post online.

Plus an aircraft that's expected to last for 30-40 years is going to undergo a lot of changes in use, due to changes in circumstances.

The next generation of Western fighters are all being designed in tandem with unmanned aircraft. These will fly with them, and act as force-multipliers (and/or sacrificial victims) for the manned fighters. Thus the fighter crew will direct them tactically, but they'll fly themselves. I doubt even these programs know what will come out the other end of them.

The UK-Italian-Swedish (soon to have Japan joining by the looks of it) Tempest is supposed to be flying by 2030 and replacing Typhoon by the middle of that decade. But Tempest is only a part of the FCAS program, which should be include unmanned aircraft.

I get the impression the Franco-German-Spanish FCAS program is prioritising the unmanned stuff first, with the idea that some of it might fly with current jets and then the main aircraft will be their replacement for the Rafale and the Typhoon. That's if the French don't sabotage yet another joint European aircraft project, and the Germans and Spanish don't end up fleeing and joining ours. Although both programs may have some drone tech in service first.

The US future fighter project is doing the same things.

Of course in reality we already have autonomous firing. The Brimstone missile (some of which we've given to Ukraine) can be targetted with lasers or on coordinates. But can also be told to go and hunt in such and such an area until it sees a tank, then kill it. It has a database of enemy combat vehicles, so you can even select it to only kill artillery pieces. At the moment, in the presence of multiple missiles, later fired ones will delay their attack until they see whether previous shots have destroyed their targets, so they don't all hit the same thing. But the next generation will have full swarming capability, where they can communicate with each other in real time.

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Strangely enough, you've got to finish building it, before you can test fly it. And 2023 is less than a month away.

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Re: Shades of TV detector vans ?

Geez Money,

The B1 got used because they had it. But I'm not sure how suitable it was for its eventual role. They're keeping the B52s for the job of carrying unfeasibly large numbers of bombs and being an overhead intelligence asset (with modern comms forward air controllers can actually watch footage from the aircraft above on a tablet so they can designate the correct targets).

The B21 is way more expensive, but also way more capable in a contested environment. But I think the general idea is that you use a few waves of attacks by stealth aircraft to degrade enemy air defences sufficiently that you can then use your other stuff in relative safety. So while I'm sure they'd always like more, even the USAF have limits to their budget.

I think the B1 was on the way out anyway due to age. But Congress get upset if a capability is retired, without being replaced. So why not say this replaces it, when really it's a replacement for the B2?

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Re: Shades of TV detector vans ?

And I wonder if each plane will have big enough fuel tanks to get to (and fly back from) Moscow, Beijing or anywhere else?

The B2s almost exclusively live in the USA and get to their targets by using mid-air refueling. The USA has an awful lot of tanker assets scattered around the world.

I don't know what the range is on internal tanks alone, but modern jets are pretty efficient at high altitudes, and that's where this is probably intented to fly. That is assuming it's still subsonic, like the B2. It's quite a big aircraft, so should have thousands of miles of range. Which is extended yet further, if it's launching missiles with the actual nukes on.

Windows 11 still not winning the OS popularity contest

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Re: OOBE

It tries to push you to make or use a Microsoft-Cloud account, which can still be avoided using "x@x.x" as username and "x" as password so after it failed, and not before, will offer to use a normal local account.

Can you still get it to let you use a local account by turning WiFi off on the computer while you set it up? Alternatively turning off your router or pulling the ethernet cable also worked with Win 10.

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Happy

Re: OOBE

The out-of-the-box experience describes the Schreodinger's-cat's-eye-view of any system. This means that fifty percent of the time you've got a black screen, the cat being dead and therefore unable to see anything. The other half the time the experience is filled with the ineffable joy of survival, added to the excitement of being released from a dark and scary enclosed space containing a poison capsule and a radioactive source. Hence the cat is too high on endorphins to care how poor the actual user experience is.

Meta threatens to stop sharing news in USA to protest publisher payment plan

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The premise of my comment is not incorrect. It's dead on accurate.

The Central Scrutinizer,

Did you even bother to read my post?

but fucking the Internet by demanding link taxes is fundamentally stupid.

This isn't a link tax. It's a fee for using copyright material.

The point for Google and Facebook is they want you to stay on their website, seeing the adverts they post. Not going to the news company's website to see theirs.

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As one of your downvoters I'll try to answer. It's only fair, after all.

Firstly, Google and Facebook aren't just sharing links. They're cutting snippets from articles as well. In a lot of cases with news you don't need more than a couple of sentences summary of a story, unless you're particularly interested. So the premise of your comment is incorrect anyway.

But ignoring the rights and wrongs of this case, society has a problem. If you want to operate a democracy bigger than a city state you need some sort of independent media. If that's going to happen, you need journalists. To get journalists, you have to pay them. Historically this has been done by a mix of subscriptions and using the content to sell advertising. If Google and Facebook manage to break that model by hoovering up all the advertising revenue on the internet - then who's going to pay for journalism? I've heard estimates from recent years that they were capturing over 90% of all the extra online ad spend in the UK for the last few years.

Now admittedly the media were stupid, and gave their content away free online at the beginning, and set expectations - making it harder to sell. But they weren't expecting to lose the advertising war so badly. Also their response to falling revenenues has been to cut quality, rather than to raise prices - because they've felt that would be suicidal in the current market.

But society needs a broad-based and mostly independent media to function properly. Google and Facebook appear to be doing most to fuck that up. Both are monopolies. Both are therefore an easy target to try and keep the current model limping along, rather than trying to solve the problem in other ways.

Yandex signs up Putin ally to help with restructuring

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Re: If we Xed out all US corporate types....

The Russian government chose its economic isolation. And knows exactly what it can do to reverse it.

Admittedly when I say the Russian government, Russia is now basically a dictatorship. It used to be much more complicated than that, but this war represents a disaster for Russians as well as Ukrainians. In that most of the scope for alternative views and alternative centres of power has gone from Russian society. It's Putin that has turned the clock back 50 years, to about the late Brezhnev era - such is the kit that the Russian army are now digging out of their long-term storage sites to send their conscripts to the front in - and soon society will be in about the same poor way. No ideology to believe in, just repression and sullen obedience to force.

How do you solve the problem that is Twitter?

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Re: Unpopular opinion incoming...

Do you, perhaps, have some sort of emotional investment in Twitter that has been somehow trodden on by Musk?

I think a lot of journalists have both a financial and emotional interest in Twitter. It's become a pretty important place for them to get easy quotes for stories.

But it's also become a research tool. For example I came to Twitter to follow the war in Ukraine. The media have got rid of most of their knowledgeable defence correspondents - and a lot of the coverage was poor, superficial or both. Now on Twitter you can find an awful lot of the same, and even more deliberate misinformation as well as plain wishful thinking.

But lots of niche communities have found Twitter a useful way to communicate. Like professional military analysts. And amateur ones too. Some of whom are extremely high quality. Find a few of the right people to follow and suddenly you start to see what they're looking at, then you can explore that and mine it for useful info too. Pretty soon you can be following a lot of people who post a couple of interesting things a day that you might not otherwise have come across.

If everyone just moves to something like Mastodon, I presume it's no huge problem. If those communities fragment, then you've lost access to a very useful research tool. If you've also built up emotional attachments to some of those communities as well - then you're going to be even more annoyed.

A bit like the Millennium Dome got continuously terrible press because on New Year's Eve, when they launched it, they invited al the media editors along and then stranded them on broken trains for an hour or two. It can't have been that bad, as it was the biggest single tourist attraction for the year, and got lots of repeat visitors - but never got positive coverage in the press after that.

Intel offers Irish staff a three-month break from being paid

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Re: re: going after Apple

Apple don’t manufacture. They contract it out. But do often change suppliers. So they’re more of a cause of lay-offs by other people.

Facebook approved 75% of ads threatening US election workers

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Re: Facebook have a moderation team?

I haven't used Facebook in about 5 years, but when I was a user almost all the ads I saw were dodgy in some way. I was only on there for family party invites and photos, so obviously not a valuable user to be targeted by legitimate brands. I provided very little info for them to use.

But when I looked most of the adverts were for obvious scams, like you are the millionth person to see our advert and have won a free iPad. Or they were for "dating" sites to meet unfeasibly attractive Russian girls - presumably for the purposes of obtaining money or a better passport in exchange for the obvious.

As a legitimate advertiser that would put me right off using Facebook. I wouldn't want my expensive brand advertising sat next to that lot. Although I don't recall ever seeing any advertising from any company I recognised, so maybe Facebook do a good job of segregating their good accounts from the bottom-feeder ads, and then just show the really cheap crap ads to the low-value accounts and bots for those vital extra pennies they can make?