Re: inverse correlation
In many countries over the summer case rates and, hence, mortality rates fell, as they are doing again. This is largely down to people being outside more where the rate of infection is much lower. But when looking at the global mortality rate, ie. of the population as a whole and not of those infected, you have to take vulnerability into account and many of those who died in the first half of 2020 would most likely have died at some point in the year – most likely in the cold and flu season in the autumn and winter. The deaths were, in a sense, brought forward by a couple of months. If this sounds callous it's not meant to be: this is just an observation of well-established data. We all die at some point and respiratory diseases are one of the main causes, especially of those with pre-existing conditions where it doesn't take much to overwhelm the body. My sympathy is with everyone who has had a bereavement as a result of the pandemic.
What we're now seeing is possibly the inverse, with the precautions (restrictions but also vaccinations) taken to reduce the spread of COVID-19 also suppressing the flu. We should at some point expect a return to the mean, though for the UK at least that might not be this year. And, unfortunately, I expect all politicians to go back on their word regarding funding for public health just as soon as it becomes politically expedient to do so: nurses and care workers will continue to be paid below average, funding for research will be cut, etc.