@Windrose... Yes and No
Definitely a fairly well thought out and intelligent post.
But I do have to disagree with a couple of points...
"(c) The US would have to come up with a charge against him, complete with proof, of a crime which is ALSO a crime in Sweden - that'd get tricky, since Sweden have very good protections for publishers of material. Could be done tho; espionage would be one. But since it's reasonably clear he's NOT a spy (spies don't publish the information online, normally .... ) that's political maneouvering.
(d) The Swedish Court would have to determine whether there was a political component to the *US* request - which, uh, we all agree there would be. If there is one, they can't legally extradite.
(e) The Swedish Government would have to, according to EU law, ask the *UK* Government whether it is ok to extradite him to the US. Then the *UK* needs to say yes - and, presumably, the UK would not do so if THEY thought it had gone political-shaped."
-=-
First, Assnage is Australian not a UK citizen.Nor is he a Swedish citizen. IANAL, but AFAIK, citizenship plays a crucial role in the laws affecting Assnage. (Why do you think he was trying so hard to get Swedish citizenship?)
Second...
In the US, if the Grand Jury determines that there is enough evidence against Assnage, the US will formally charge him. They will then make a claim for extradition. Regardless if he is in the UK or in Sweden.
At the time of this post, no official charges have been filed (AFAIK), so everything is hypothetical. Assuming that Assnage will face charges of treason, if charged as such, he'd probably stand a better chance of fighting the extradition in Sweden than he would in the UK. Even though he's not a UK citizen, he is Australian and I think he's got some protections as a citizen of the commonwealth. But unlike Sweden, UK is a member of NATO. So what trumps what in a court of law? I don't know but I'd imagine that a charge of espionage would be reason enough for Assnage to get extradited.
If Assnage is in Sweden, the Swedes don't have to talk to the UK about extradition to the US.
The question is if Sweden wants to create an international incident over Assnage. Also in light of the recent terrorist attacks in Sweden, see:
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/europe/101212/suicide-bombing-sweden-stockholm-terrorist-attack
I don't think that Sweden will fight hard against an extradition.
Neither will the UK where unlike McKinnon, espionage is a more serious crime than criminal trespass...
As to your comment about a 'political motivation'... since the leaks span both a Democrat and a Republican party president/white house, one could reasonably argue that his extradition is not politically motivated.
I'm sure that within 5 years, there will be a movie made about Assnage and this whole Wikileaks thing.