back to article Get drinking! Abstinence just as bad for you as getting bladdered

Here’s a bit of good news. If you like alcohol, then keep drinking, and if you don’t, then you should start drinking – in moderation, of course, unless you want to increase your chances of developing dementia. A study published in the British Medical Journal this month shows that the risk of dementia increases for middle-aged …

  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Is correlation causation....?

    Highly dubious study if you ask me - many factors and variables and how can they definitively state that alcohol is the only/key factor?

    1. AMBxx Silver badge
      Pint

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Interesting chart in The Times this morning. Units of alcohol went up to 70 per week. No wonder civil servants get so little done!

    2. Mark 85
      Pint

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      So one shouldn't order a cask of wine just yet? Rats.....

      1. jake Silver badge

        Re: Is correlation causation....?

        Of course one should order a cask of wine! Get your priorities straight, man!

        1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

          Re: Is correlation causation....?

          Of course one should order a cask of wine!

          Well - I have a nice cask of Amontillado down in the cellar - if you'd like to come down and take a taste.

          Ignore all the bricks piled up nearby - I'm doing some... renovations.

    3. Charlie Clark Silver badge
      Facepalm

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Highly dubious study if you ask me

      There is nothing dubious about the study which in its conclusion makes the same point as you do: yes, this is correlation as nearly all long-term studies are.

    4. aks

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Maybe if you read the study you'd find out how.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Is correlation causation....?

        sigh.... and what made you think I didn't?

        Did the study consider in detail the diets of the subjects? What about where they lived? (e.g. one person lives next to a busy dual carriageway with high levels of pollution, another lives outside of London next to fields?).

        The study acknowledges that they gathered information on smokers/non-smokers, but did not take account if they were non-smokers who had stopped.

        What about the type of job? One role may be more stressful than another. etc, etc

        Way too many variables. Like most diet-related studies.

    5. JoshOvki
      Stop

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      > Highly dubious study if you ask me

      Shut up, shut up, shut up! The powers that be might hear you and try to put an end to drinking. Finally we have published evidence it is good for us

      1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

        Re: Is correlation causation....?

        Finally we have published evidence it is good for us

        Indeed. I shot a swift glance at my wife when I saw that article (we've been married long enough that she knew what I meant).

        And then I opened a nice bottle of wine and drank some.

    6. tiggity Silver badge

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Plenty of evidence to show some people drink due to stress.

      Stress is widely regarded as linked to cardiovascular disease

      So they would need to work hard to accurately ascertain the stress levels of people and factor that in.things would need to be accounted for.

      A whole host of other variables to consider.

      You can have a good stab at factoring in various known issues (e.g. obesity, smoking, etc.).

      I would suggest reading the article to see (I CBA as read too many journal articles that are by necessity limited in detailing methodology in these areas as too long for publishers (explanations of what was done would be far longer than the article findings ) - but doubt you will find out much.

      But, who is really that bothered, we all die of something. I have seen horrendous slow, unpleasant drawn out, minimal quality of life, last months of people with cancer, dementia and similar "slow and nasty" diseases of old age & a quick coronary would have saved them a lot of suffering (they were cared for by relatives at home, I'm sure in hospital a greater chance someone might have done an (illegal but compassionate) intervention to terminally relieve their suffering.

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: Is correlation causation....?

        Plenty of evidence to show some people drink due to stress.

        Careful as this could be a conditioned response: it has certainly been demonstrated with smokers that the stress they generally experience is actually a withdrawal sympton. This quickly leads to them associating smoking with coping with stress and, hence, reinforcing the addiction.

        Alcohol, of course, does act differently, including as a muscle relaxant but I'm not convinced this really helps reduce stress over time.

      2. Aladdin Sane

        Re: we all die of something

        Obligatory xkcd.

      3. ZippedyDooDah

        Re: Is correlation causation....?

        "But, who is really that bothered, we all die of something."

        I have also worked with people with dementia. To be precise it was in a care home which specialised in people with dementia.

        Every single employee in the place was of the opinion that if they ever got diagnosed with dementia, that they would somehow arrange to "off" themselves. It's an absolutely dreadful terminal disease. You can "live" with dementia for as long as ten years. Thirty out of thirty two clients were doubly incontinent. It takes a lot of wet wipes to clean up twenty four hours a day.

        So, "But, who is really that bothered, we all die of something." ?

        I am seriously bothered. I should drink more red wine and cut down on the beer. Dementially, errr, dementedly, or, something like that.

    7. Red Bren
      Pint

      Feckin' Puritans

      A talking head on the BBC was at pains to welcome "the link between excess alcohol consumption and dementia." When challenged about the surprising link between abstinance and dementia, he was very keen to stress "There could be many other factors at play"

      I refuse to listen to government health advice that insists that fun=unhealthy.

    8. Azerty

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Exactly. People who do not drink alcohol might avoid alcohol because of health issues explaining a lot of bad scores in statistics for non-drinkers.

    9. Joeyjoejojrshabado

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      Does it state that alcohol is thr key factor? It examines the effect of alcohol, which is one factor

    10. HolySchmoley

      Re: Is correlation causation....?

      "Highly dubious study if you ask me - many factors and variables and how can they definitively state that alcohol is the only/key factor?"

      I heard it on R4 this morning and the scientist they interviewed (the researcher?) did not "definitively state that alcohol is the only/key factor". They gave a very balanced scientific anwser, as you might expect of a scientist.

      I think that the problem might be the conclusion you jumped to about what the study found.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    " a chemical that has been linked to lowering inflammation and preventing blood clots."

    ... or aspirin?

    1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

      " a chemical that has been linked to lowering inflammation and preventing blood clots."

      ... or aspirin?

      Fortunately, wine doesn't burn holes in my stomach lining or cause gut pain and bleeding.

      Unlike asprin.

      (I can tolerate nurofen, but only in combination with something like rabeprazole and taken with milk. Otherwise it's stomach pain and/or bleeding)

  3. frank ly

    One little pill?

    "Previous studies showed that wine could help prevent strokes as it contains resveratrol, ..."

    Maybe we all need to take a resveratol tablet every day, along with the statins, low dose asprin, vitamin and mineral tablets, etc. Does alcohol-free wine have resveratol?

    1. Sampler
      Joke

      Alcohol Free Wine

      Isn't that just juice?

      1. jake Silver badge

        Re: Alcohol Free Wine

        No. Juice is drinkable in a pinch. Alcohol free wine, not so much.

      2. Teiwaz

        Re: Alcohol Free Wine

        Isn't that just juice?

        Used to know a Free Presbyterian who insisted all references in the Bible to wine actually meant fruit juice.

        1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

          Re: Alcohol Free Wine

          all references in the Bible to wine actually meant fruit juice

          "A land flowing with milk and honey, with corn and new wine" seems to sum up all the approrpriate food groups nicely..

    2. MacroRodent

      Re: One little pill?

      I wonder if there is any difference in resveratrol content between wine and the original grape juice? Would making wine concentrate it? If so, maybe think of other ways concentrate it in juice.

      I am nowadays very suspicious of studies attributing health benefits to alcohol itself. It is a know carcinogen, and has ill effects on the liver. Even if it theoretically would have benefits to some part of the body, these would be offset by harm to other parts. (It also has a mighty industry behind it, rather like tobacco used to).

      1. jake Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: One little pill?

        Alcohol, like radiation, is bad for you in high doses, yes. However, in small doses both seem to have beneficial qualities. Many wise folks through the years have noted that moderation in all things is the key to a long and happy life. Looks like they were right.

        To answer your question, the various anti-oxidants are mainly found in the skins, stems, leaves and seeds of grapes, rather than in their pulp. Grape juice makers usually filter these things out as "contaminants" before bottling, as do most white wine makers prior to fermentation. However, red wine ferments on them, and thus gets the full benefit.

        For best health results, chase your dolma with red wine.

        1. elDog

          "For best health results, chase your dolma with red wine."

          I read that as "For best health results, chase your dogma with red wine." Absolutely!

      2. Fading

        Re: One little pill?

        Alcohol is a natural by-product of the digestion process. The human body has evolved methods of dealing with the toxicity of alcohol - such as alcohol dehydrogenase which is more prevalent in males versus females (https://sites.duke.edu/apep/module-1-gender-matters/content/content-gender-differences-in-alcohol-metabolism/) - hence the advice that men and women should have the same number of units is not based on biology.

        It is neither a mutagen nor a promoter and its links to cancer are normally only statistical correlations that frequently have other unhealthy life-style factors associated (heavy drinkers are not known for their healthy eating and exercise plans).

        I am very suspicious of all correlation studies as we all should be.

        1. Korev Silver badge
          Boffin

          Re: One little pill?

          It is neither a mutagen nor a promoter and its links to cancer are normally only statistical correlations that frequently have other unhealthy life-style factors associated (heavy drinkers are not known for their healthy eating and exercise plans).

          Alcohol itself isn't mutagenic, but the first step in its metabolism produces acetaldehyde which is.

          Moreover, tumours love energy and alcohol causes a rapid rise in sugars in the blood.

          1. Fading

            Re: One little pill?

            Acetaldehyde has a half life of 90 seconds in the blood and it's association as a carcinogen (not a mutagen) is not a proven fact. Given as it naturally occurs in coffee, bread and ripe fruit and is widely present elsewhere in nature I take the IARC rating with a pinch of salt - (IARC class 1 in Chinese style salted fish).

            Living can cause cancer - things can go wrong whenever a cell needs to die (through necrosis or apoptosis) as such to fear anything that damages cells as carcinogenic (which the IARC ratings seem to do) is not helpful in any way.

          2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

            Re: One little pill?

            Moreover, tumours love energy and alcohol causes a rapid rise in sugars in the blood.

            I think you've walked straight into the correlation argument there. The counterfactual argument would be to starve people with cancer… except cancer seems to do this anyway.

        2. MacroRodent

          Re: One little pill?

          Alcohol is a natural by-product of the digestion process. The human body has evolved methods of dealing with the toxicity of alcohol

          This is certainly true, and the reason we can drink alcoholic drinks without dying outright, but the digestion produces much smaller amounts of it than drinking. You cannot get drunk by eating non-alcoholic foods!

          Googling the matter, there seems to be a lot of different opinions about how carcinogenic (if at all) alcohol is. This also reminds me of the times the tobacco industry still tried to argue smoking is not so harmful, and promoted studies to confuse the issue.

          I do drink occasionally, but less than I used to, which was not so much even then (less that the British official recommended maximum, which to my eyes looks like borderline alcoholism... cultural difference, I guess).

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: One little pill?

            You think that 14 units per week ( 7 pints ) is borderline alcoholism?

            7 pints is a livener.

            1. Aladdin Sane

              Re: 7 pints is a livener.

              AKA breakfast.

          2. the Jim bloke

            Re: One little pill?

            Alcoholism = Drinking more than your doctor does

            1. skalamanga

              Re: One little pill?

              Drinking more than your doctor "says" he drinks

        3. onefang
          WTF?

          Re: One little pill?

          "Alcohol is a natural by-product of the digestion process."

          Ah, that explains something my doctor once wrote that I have been scratching my head about ever since. In a general report about my health he noted that I don't drink alcohol (which is true), but right next to that said that I should try to drink less alcohol. I've been wondering ever since how to produce alcohol from my body to reach this "less alcohol" goal. Now I know. I guess some carefully timed throwing up is in order.

      3. Mark 85

        Re: One little pill?

        I am nowadays very suspicious of studies attributing health benefits to alcohol itself. It is a know carcinogen, and has ill effects on the liver. Even if it theoretically would have benefits to some part of the body, these would be offset by harm to other parts. (It also has a mighty industry behind it, rather like tobacco used to).

        Two quotes come to mind about this...

        1) "Moderation is for monks".

        2) "No one gets out of this life alive."

        A third one does also, but given the circumstances it was made under, it probably should apply: "Let's go, you want to live forever?:.

        So just maybe, one should just suck the marrow out of life and enjoy it while we can. Death is waiting and takes everyone eventually. So go young, some go old. But they still go. Don't make a bucket list, just do it.

    3. Wellyboot Silver badge
      Pint

      Re: One little pill?

      Years of missed enjoyment to merely move the percentages about a little bit?

      You can rattle with the pills, I'll stick with a glass of the Bo-Jolly, it's only being old and decrepit I'll be missing out on.

      -no wine icon! or head in sand for that matter :)

    4. tony2heads

      Re: One little pill?

      forget the pills- just eat berries and grapes, drink cocoa and red wine.

      Add a few peanuts into the mix for variety

    5. Red Bren
      Unhappy

      Re: One little pill?

      Why not just take it in a readily available form, i.e. A glass of wine?

      I swear if someone discovered a cheap plant extract that if taken daily, would prevent cancer, heart disease and dementia, but its one side effect was to make you high for thirty seconds, the government would refuse to legalise it.

    6. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: One little pill?

      I can attest to all of this, My heart was destroyed by a virus and I am on a waiting list for a transplant. In the meantime, I have a LVAD.

      I get labs drawn EVERY week so I can certainly answer this.

      1) Grape juice does not cut it (and it would have to be Red Grape Juice like from Welches)

      2) The Reservatrol Pill does not cut it - in fact, trying several different brands still did not improve my labs

      3) Adding 4 oz of Red Wine every other day improved my labs by over 500%. In fact, you would not know I had a heart condition as my labs are those of a super healthy person (but the fact I have INR shows I am taking meds)

      I am NOT overweight and was super healthy when the virus attacked my heart. I had NO plaque in the heart when they put in the LVAD. What DID improve the labs was that 4 oz of Red Wine every other day. Up until then, I rarely did drink.

      I still believe natural food is superior to so-called supplements whether it is Reservatrol, Vitamin C, Etc., as I get more than enough Vitamin C through the fruits and veggies I eat daily, Potassium from Bananas and boiled potatoes, etc.

      As an aside - I used to take Potassium supplements - when I stopped those, my Potassium was actually better with no eating habit changes.....

    7. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

      Re: One little pill?

      Maybe we all need to take a resveratol tablet every day

      There's pretty good evidence that the synergy effect (of which resveratol is part) is responsible. In the same way as isolating any purifying active chemicals from herbs often doesn't have the same effect as the herb itself.

      On the upside, at least with an extraced drug, you generally know what the dosage is - unlike herbs where the active compound amounts can vary widely depending on the growing conditions and age of the plant.

  4. Pascal Monett Silver badge
    Pint

    That's what I love about El Reg

    There's regularly some bit of good news why I can have that glass :)

    That is, until the day the science of our bodies has advanced to the point we actually know what we're talking about. Then the news will be final.

    But until then, bottoms up !

  5. Will Godfrey Silver badge
    Happy

    Telling us what we already knew

    Well, that's those of us with half a brain.

    ... Oh!

  6. jemmyww

    General health

    Hasn't it already been established by plenty of other studies that the benefit of alcohol goes away when you take the general health of participants into consideration? I.e. you are more likely to be abstinate if you're already sick or have another complicating factor.

    1. Dr Dan Holdsworth

      Re: General health

      The "Sick quitter" hypothesis has been debunked; teetotallers who quit drinking but are damaged due to alcoholism have been removed from most studies.

      The correlation between moderate alcohol consumption and increased longevity still stands; sick quitters are not relevant.

      Resveratrol seems to have a life-extending effect, but it is a very weak one. More research needs doing on how it achieves this effect, to find something with a greater level of activity.

  7. -tim
    Pint

    Lies, damned lies, or statistics?

    Everyone knows that self reporting numbers tend to be off a bit. Perhaps a Reg hack can go out and do some real investigative reporting. I want them to be out there drinking with some of the people that self report and report just how right or wrong their self reporting is. The Whitehall surveys are where a great deal of the data about "normal drinking" comes from.

  8. Arthur the cat Silver badge
    WTF?

    What?

    the higher risk of dementia for people who abstained from alcohol was only apparent if they didn’t drink wine

    If you're drinking wine you're not abstaining from alcohol.

    1. Prst. V.Jeltz Silver badge

      Re: What?

      Bang on Arthur . The whole article is written in prose so twisted and convoluted as to be unintelligle. Ive decoded most of it, but you are right about that bit. Heres what I managed to glean:

      Paragraph 1

      drink in moderation decreases dementia

      P2

      dementia increases if Too much booze , or none.

      P3

      dementia higher for non drinkers than under 14 units pw drinkers

      P4

      those over 14 units pw ,17% more dementia, and were beer drinkers.

      Then the real mystery paragraph, in full:

      What is slightly odd, however, is that the higher risk of dementia for people who abstained from alcohol was only apparent if they didn’t drink wine. So, if you’re going to drink a bit maybe it’s best to go for wine rather than beer or spirits.

      wtf?

      1. skalamanga

        Re: What?

        So it has to be 'exactly' 14 units per week? If I go tee total for three weeks then throw all 56 units down my gullet on the last Friday night of the month, does that work?

  9. GruntyMcPugh Silver badge

    If we are citing Resveratrol as a possible cause,...

    .. of the delay of dementia, we should really qualify 'wine' as 'Red Wine' as white wine contains very little.

  10. Warm Braw

    Eh?

    the higher risk of dementia for people who abstained from alcohol was only apparent if they didn’t drink wine

    So you can avoid the risk of dementia by persuading yourself that in the absence of abstinence you would otherwise have been a beer drinker?

  11. Dazed and Confused

    Of course wine is good for you

    It's basically grapes, and therefore fruit and therefore 1 of your five a day.

    1. Pen-y-gors

      Re: Of course wine is good for you

      Use it to wash down a large bar of Cadbury's Fruit and Nut choccie (fruit, nuts, cocoa is a vegetable as well, so another 3 of your five) and you're nearly there.

    2. Pedigree-Pete
      Pint

      Re: 1 of your 5 a day..

      Thanks Dazed and Confused. I mostly drink cider (<5%). I'm sure someone will correct me but I'd be amazed if a pint (or 3) of cider didn't contain at least 5 apples. :) PP

      1. jake Silver badge
        Pint

        Re: 1 of your 5 a day..

        Depends on the size of the apple. It takes about 16 pounds of apples to make one US gallon of cider, so call it 2.5 pounds of apples per British pint. Note this is an average, some apples are juicier than others; the above is based on the yield from my Gravensteins with my old cider press. Also note there is some loss during fermentation & bottling, so as always YMMV.

        Cheers!

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    My dad ( 4-8 cans of lager per night ) read that red wine was good for him, so started necking a glass of red in one before commencing the evenings libation.

    I'm not sure if he still does it.

    1. skalamanga

      Wasn't that an Ozzy Osbourne trick? Except he was drinking red wine in pint glasses.

  13. Simon Harris
    Unhappy

    Sobering thought...

    I'm not far off the upper age limit that they considered middle-aged.

    Have to get my mid-life crisis in fast.

  14. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Hardly a representative sample.

    They tested a bunch of civil servants.

    They will have been able to draw little of value from the results, other than that the test subjects will have displayed the same standard of blithering incompetence whether pissed or sober.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Hardly a representative sample.

      They were going to test the politicians - but then the results wouldn't be applicable to humans

  15. MJI Silver badge
    Pint

    Light drinking

    I always feel better when I have had a small amount of drink, stress tends to drop, feel more relaxed.

    I do like red wine as well, so that is more goodness.

    And I do get less stressed than the office hardly ever drink alcohol person, and tons less than Mr energy drinks and coffee.

    Not drinking at all to me is a bit perverse.

  16. tony72
    Pint

    The most important conclusion...

    I consider myself to be a moderate drinker, insofar as I never get drunk; however I drink some wine and spirits daily, and I blast past that 14 units level in a couple of days, never mind a week. So what I found interesting in the paper is not where the minimum risk of dementia is, but the comparison between abstention and the amount I actually drink. Looking at fig.2 in the paper, it seems that the outcome for abstainers is on a par with the outcome for people consuming 40+ units per day, and furthermore that comparison seems to tilt further in favour of the drinkers as age increases.

    So I can slurp my dinner time cab sauv and my whisky nightcap safe in the knowledge that I'm doing as well as someone who doesn't drink at all. At least as far as dementia risk goes; I'm sure my liver might have something to say about this if it could speak.

    1. Richard Wharram

      Re: The most important conclusion...

      40+ units per day?

      I consider myself a bit of a drinker but I am plainly slacking.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The most important conclusion...

        I find that drinking over 40 units one day makes it much harder to drink very much at all the next day.

        1. Aladdin Sane

          Re: The most important conclusion...

          40 units makes me really thirsty the next day.

        2. skalamanga

          Re: The most important conclusion...

          Well, with that attitude!

      2. tony72

        Re: The most important conclusion...

        Oops, I meant per week obviously!

        I swear that that mistake was not caused by drinking, it's a bit early even for me.

        1. Richard Wharram

          Re: The most important conclusion...

          40 units per week is back in near-abstinence territory :(

  17. elgarak1

    Oh goody, they recommend the type of alc I CANNOT drink. I'm a allergic. Wine and champagne contains too much histamine for me to consume safely. Beers are hit and miss, depending on the used yeast – typically, I either like it and am allergic, or I frickin' HATE the stuff, but don't get a reaction.

    The only alcohol I like to consume is vodka or scotch...

    And frankly, the behavioral changes induced by alcohol consumption are rather unpleasant.

  18. intrigid

    Correlation isn't causation

    What is it about this concept that journalists are having so much trouble with? Journalists should stick to their pay grade and leave the scientific reporting to actual scientists.

  19. intrigid

    More likely hypothesis

    Alcohol doesn't prevent dementia. Dietary cholesterol prevents dementia. People who are willing to indulge in alcohol are more likely to be willing to indulge in red meat.

    A causes B and C. C causes D.

    B doesn't cause D or have any connection to it whatsoever, but B and D are correlated, so journalists start reporting "if you want D, consider trying B"

    This is why "correlation isn't causation" needs to be hammered into people's heads nonstop. Even people whose full-time job it is to conduct these studies don't seem to have the foggiest clue what the concept means.

    1. pop_corn

      Re: More likely hypothesis

      Dressing up correlations is "science" really annoys me. Isn't it far more likely that the majority of people don't drink alone (your A), and that drinking alcohol is a social activity (your C), and that being sociable with people prevents dementia (D)?

  20. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    So does this mean I can get my GP to prescribe Wetherspoons vouchers?

  21. Boris the Cockroach Silver badge
    Pint

    The most important

    thing to remember is that even if you follow all the health advice, eat well, drink moderately, do exercise etc etc etc you can still end up in a cardiac ward with the doc waving the angiogram pictures in your face going 'I cant believe you're still alive'

    And in most cases of what I had.. you wont be alive....

    Oh and good luck to the poster with the LVAD

  22. This post has been deleted by its author

  23. HolySchmoley

    What?!?!?

    "What is slightly odd, however, is that the higher risk of dementia for people who abstained from alcohol was only apparent if they didn’t drink wine."

    What?!

    Is that as opposed to people who abstained from alcohol and didn’t drink beer?

    Reminds me of an IBM Share conference in Chicago, circa '79-'80, where an APL session finished with some 'Empty Array' (/empty set) jokes.

    E.g.

    Customer: I'd like a burger with no mustard, please.

    Server: Sorry, we don't have mustard.

    Customer: OK, I'll have one with no ketchup then.

    Memories!

    (It's also where I discovered Bacardi & Coke at the free bar that ran from 6-11 every evening. I was a kid-techie-in-training).

    1. Pedigree-Pete
      Joke

      Re: What?!?!? Duck Joke.

      It involves a bar, a bread obsessed Duck and a none existent nail.

      also a bit like the bar, pint, pork pie and packet of crisps joke. Go figure. PP

  24. jamesisinspain

    Wine is very good for you

    Here in Spain, my local supermarket has a litre of wine for €1.60, or you can have a bottle of alcohol free red wine for €7.99 hmmmm which one shall I choose?

  25. pgeuk

    Ballmer curve?

    Does this mean the XKCD "Ballmer peak" cartoon was more accurate than anticipated?

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