back to article Retail serfs to vanish, all thanks to automation

About 80 per cent of jobs in retail transportation, warehousing and logistics and 63 per cent of jobs in sales are at risk of disappearing, thanks to increasingly capable automated systems. This bleak news – for workers, though not necessarily for employers – comes from Oxford researchers Carl Benedikt Frey, co-director for …

  1. the Jim bloke

    so they are saying

    A current university degree is only good for a job at Macdonalds

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: so they are saying

      The graduate with a Science degree asks, "Why does it work?"

      The graduate with an Engineering degree asks, "How does it work?

      The graduate with an Accounting degree asks, "How much will it cost?"

      The graduate with a Liberal Arts degree asks, "Do you want fries with that?"

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: so they are saying

        The graduate with a Liberal Arts degree

        Are there different kinds of arts degrees?

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: so they are saying

          "Are there different kinds of arts degrees?"

          Yes, fine arts.

      2. joshimitsu

        Re: so they are saying

        the Liberal Arts grad gets a place in management or marketing.

      3. Orv Silver badge

        Re: so they are saying

        It turns out, at least in the US, the majority of people who sign up for liberal arts degrees go on to get a graduate degree in some other field -- business or law, often. And it's perfectly possible to end up at McDonalds with a science degree, I've seen it happen many times.

      4. Lotaresco

        Re: so they are saying

        The Graduate with an BA in History asks, "Why can't you catch all the pervophiles on the Internets? You have the best people who understand the technology, who understand the necessary hashtags to stop this stuff even being put up!"

      5. Maty

        Re: so they are saying

        Actually, the guy with a liberal arts degree asks 'Do I need to hire a science, engineering or accounting graduate for this?'

        A liberal arts degree pays shit only if you go for a job in that discipline. However, people with degrees in medieval poetry might end up running banks and government ministries. A liberal arts degree shows you can think analytically and deal with and in heaps of BS. There's demand for those skills.

    2. katrinab Silver badge

      Re: so they are saying

      The jobs at McDonalds will be to maintain their burger flipping machines.

    3. Chris G

      Re: so they are saying

      I suggest you look up McDonalds Phoenix Arizona, that went robotic around March this year, with o ly 25000 to follow if it's successful.

      Remembering an earlier Reg story, you can't wave an AR15 at a robot to impress it much

      For all the serfs that don't have a decent degree, get used to toiling in the fields and sharing a turnip for Sunday lunch, the degree holders will be able to have a potato with the turnip, PhDs will get a spoonful of gravy too.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: so they are saying

        "[...] PhDs will get a spoonful of gravy too."

        With all the anti-expert rhetoric being spouted by politicians these days - we seem well on the way to a Mao style Cultural Revolution. IIRC Pol Pot did something similar too.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Chris G

        I'm rather offended by that. The turnips around here are rather tastey!

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    There's no 'to' about it

    It's already a 'have'.

    Good wife 'works in retail' as a casual.

    As good as unemployed now.

    Shops B dead.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    time to Tax the Robots

    After all with no one working who will pay the taxes to keep those unemployed alive?

    Then how will all those unemployed people be able to afford to buy all that 'tat' from the likes of Amazon?

    Has Bezos thought about this? Could he be cutting his order supply off just to save a few pennies getting stuff shipped and sent?

    He probably don't care as he'll be retired to his Island in the sun that is staffed entirely by Robots.

    Asimov will be turning in his grave.

    1. JimC

      Re: time to Tax the Robots

      Seems no especial reason why a robot shouldn't pay the tax and national insurance contributions of the worker it replaces.

      1. Charlie Clark Silver badge

        Re: time to Tax the Robots

        Seems no especial reason why a robot shouldn't pay the tax and national insurance contributions of the worker it replaces.

        Ethically you may be right but economically you'd be discouraging productivity improvements and continue to play workers off against robots, which is likely to drive wages down further.

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: time to Tax the Robots

          "Ethically you may be right but economically you'd be discouraging productivity improvements"

          Economically you'd have to tax them or find some other way of shifting the tax base if there isn't income to tax.

      2. Chris G

        Re: time to Tax the Robots

        So are these robots also going to go out and spend their hard earned cash on WD40 and silicon lube like the good little consumers that humans have been up to now?

        The current model of economics is based on consumerism, automation is going to move more money into the pockets of bosses and shareholders, a smaller consumer base who will have to spend like crazy to maintain the economic status quo.

        Of course I could be wrong but I would like to know how else it might work.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: time to Tax the Robots

          How and what are you supposing is taxed on robots in replacement of people? Think about every mechanism every person and machine, factory is a "robot".

          Tax the company. Tax the business. Tax the whatever. Just be careful what and why, for definitions. Else someone could just have 1 employer press "yes/no" to the entire factory to class as "manual" work.

          Wait, I think I saw that tax avoidance scheme... that's why Homer never lost his job! :D https://youtu.be/R_rF4kcqLkI

        2. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: time to Tax the Robots

          "Of course I could be wrong but I would like to know how else it might work."

          There was a sci-fi story a while ago that postulated such an automated society. Only hairdressing remained a human job.

          The essence of the system was a large factory which automatically produced everything - and its waste heat was also recycled. All overseen by one man. Then the position became occupied by a "rebel" who tried various strategies to cause the plant to fail. First overproduction - then letting it fall silent until the stocks were used up.

          Anyone know title and author?

          1. Dan 55 Silver badge

            Re: time to Tax the Robots

            One of these?

      3. Dan 55 Silver badge

        Re: time to Tax the Robots

        Seems no especial reason why a robot shouldn't pay the tax and national insurance contributions of the worker it replaces.

        How do you determine their wages to tax? Will they get free repairs from the state for NI?

    2. 's water music

      Re: time to Tax the Robots

      Then how will all those unemployed people be able to afford to buy all that 'tat' from the likes of Amazon?

      Time to invest in the supply of machine oil, nuts and bolts, fancy battery packs and decals etc

  4. Korev Silver badge
    Unhappy

    Cheap labour

    There's also the depressing reality that in the UK, in some areas automation is being phased out in favour of very cheap labour.

    1. Korev Silver badge

      Re: Cheap labour

      I should clarify that by "depressing reality" I meant the poor wages that some people earn.

    2. rmason

      Re: Cheap labour

      @Korev

      I came here to post just this, so have an upvote.

      It is cheaper to get the (I think Albanian, judging by the football tops of choice) hand car wash guys to wash my car (it's quite a large 'SUV' jobby) than it is to have the premium wash form the local tesco (automated) car-wash.

      That's not because it should be, it's because the poor bastards are willing to do it for whatever pittance they are being chucked by the owner.

  5. Pete 2 Silver badge

    Not all bad

    > 63 per cent of jobs in sales are at risk of disappearing, thanks to increasingly capable automated systems

    However, that will be more than made up for by the rise in demand for call centre operators. People to answer calls complaining that they were sold the wrong thing, that it doesn't do what they thought it should, that it doesn't work with the other gizmos they have or that the instructions are gibberish.

    The problem (well known to owners of HiFi shops since at least the 1980's) is that customers go to "posh" shops to ask about stuff, see it demonstrated, decide which one they like, then bugger off to get it cheaper from a discounter or online outlet.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Not all bad

      However, that will be more than made up for by the rise in demand for call centre operators.

      You jest. I've worked for a big call centre business, and the forward plan is entirely about "moving customers to a digital relationship". In practice this is about making more money by cutting costs, and specifically that the majority of call centres will be closed. You'll be expected to interact by computer, tablet or smartphone, and even if you ring them up, it will all be IVR ("press 6 to continue circling our confusing and unhelpful menus"), recorded and synthesized speech responses.

    2. Chris G

      Re: Not all bad

      Sorry Pete, they won't do that, the call centres will be chatbots with Bombay accents.

    3. rmason

      Re: Not all bad

      It's call "showrooming"

      It'll be the death of the highstreet, and it's something i'm guilty of for almost every purchase that goes above £100.

      I do my research online, head to the shop or shops that stock my top 3 items on the list. Have a poke and feel of them.

      Then, in most cases, it's back to the internet to find the best deal on the one you've settled on.

      The future of the highstreet is basically to function as a warehouse and a showroom for big online entities.

      1. Korev Silver badge

        Re: Not all bad

        A similar thing is hurting cycle shops; there are a number of companies (Canyon, YT etc) bypassing the traditional local bike shop which are able to save the consumer a pretty big chunk of money.

    4. PNGuinn
      WTF?

      Call centres?

      Nah - the sooner they are automated the better. It's already happening.

      Tried ringing the Inland Revenue lately? Piss poor voice recognition software with the intelligence of a re-entrant telephone tree.

      Just wait till someone integrates the two.

      Pro Tip.

      Swearing at the system doesn't work. But confessing nicely to the poor abused human you finally get through to that you've just seriously verbally abused their computer system often makes their day.

      Pro Tip 2.

      Try making animal noises. The computer seems to think it's speaking to someone high up in the IR or the grubbyment, and you get put through to a human.

  6. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Sales.

    Aren't they already robots?

    1. Aladdin Sane

      Re: Sales.

      I believe the correct terminology is "drone".

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Sales.

        I thought it was droid. Sales-droid.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Sales.

          I see we have someone from sales reading el reg.

          Can I be the first to say f*ck off from everyone in IT or related practises?

    2. the Jim bloke

      Re: Sales.

      i quite like the term Peter F Hamilton used in his Nights Dawn trilogy

      "Sellrats"

  7. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Spanner in the works?

    If this stuff is true, what chances we'll see some neo-luddism? Warehouse robots being beaten up by meatbags? People hijacking amazon parcels from couriers? How about a campaign against self service tills? A crow bar as the unexpected item in the bagging area?

    1. Chris G

      Re: Spanner in the works?

      Frank Herbert's Butlerian Jihad comes to mind. Thou shalt not build a machine to do the work of a man/woman.

      On a side note I was wondering the first time I saw the phrase, why would a load of butlers have a religious war?

    2. JimC

      Re: Spanner in the works?

      I for one refuse to use self service tills for exactly that reason.

      1. Aladdin Sane

        Re: Spanner in the works?

        I embrace self service tills.

        This has got me banned from a few shops.

    3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: Spanner in the works?

      "How about a campaign against self service tills?"

      I only use them if I'm buying three items or less* otherwise the probability of it failing to recognise something is too great to be bothered with.

      *For the would-be but ill-guided pedants that signifies a lesser number.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Spanner in the works?

        The last time I was in B&Q all the self-service tills appeared be cards only - no longer any cash facility.

        It is surprising how many suppliers insist on limiting the buyer's options. Wickes DIY online ordering needs a phone number before the order will progress. Fair enough for the driver to give a warning of the imminent delivery - but it will apparently only accept mobile numbers.

        1. EddieD

          Re: Spanner in the works?

          A Wickes tilldroid once asked me for my postcode, mobile number and email address when I was paying 69p cash in a store for a packet of mug hooks.

          I just said, and I was remarkably restrained, by my standards, no.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Spanner in the works?

        three or less items

        three items or fewer

        - grammar is about communication, not rules

        1. Charles 9

          Re: Spanner in the works?

          Who gives a damn? You get the picture anyway: 1, 2, or 3 items. It's just like how "Where you at?" has become a tagline; as you say, it's about communication, and since humans are involved, things change. For exmaple, is it "jail" or "gaol"?

    4. PNGuinn
      Paris Hilton

      A crow bar as the unexpected item in the bagging area?

      Or a crow, Min.

  8. Boris the Cockroach Silver badge
    Facepalm

    Good news

    for the educated among us

    Crap news for those (and theres lots more of them) who aren't educated

    PS... if the vast majority are unemployed, just how are they going to spend money buying tat from robot staffed warehouses?

    1. Teiwaz

      Re: Good news

      Good news

      for the educated among us

      Crap news for those (and theres lots more of them) who aren't educated

      Now there's a short-sighted (and undeservedly smug) outlook.

      Not least that the more 'educated' you are, often means advanced specialisation in one field, but once all the unskilled and semi-skilled work was been moved to parts of the world where the cost of paying humans amounts to less, they'll be turning to the skilled positions.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Good news

        "[...] once all the unskilled and semi-skilled work was been moved to parts of the world where the cost of paying humans amounts to less, they'll be turning to the skilled positions."

        Government minister Priti Patel wants EU immigrant workers replaced by those from the Indian subcontinent. The Indian government is making that part of any post-BREXIT trade deal.

        I don't see those workers coming to pick crops in East Anglian fields.

    2. Orv Silver badge

      Re: Good news

      Educated jobs will take longer to automate, but they're easy to centralize, because most of them don't require person-to-person interaction. (There are exceptions -- medicine is one big one.) We're seeing this in IT right now, with companies letting sysadmins and support people go and contracting out instead. And what is the cloud if not a massive centralizing of server administration?

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Good news ???

      Let's say we made some massive technological improvements, and fully one third the jobs done today by people are done by machines in 2040. Some jobs are created servicing the machines in various ways but obviously a fraction of those they replaced. You may gloat that you're educated and have a job that can't be replaced (which isn't necessarily true, among the jobs that are already being replaced are high education jobs like lawyers, accountants and radiologists) but that's pretty short sighted.

      How does you having a job (or having had a job if you will be retired in 2040) protect you against the societal upheavals that would occur with so many people not only losing their job but having no hope of getting a job? What happens to your tax rate, as they need to be supported lest they revolt? Perhaps you refuse to help support them with your taxes, and you'd be happy to live in some fenced off community with a perimeter patrolled by giant police robots to keep the huddled masses at bay?

      Now obviously this will come slowly, but it is already happening and we're already seeing the first signs of this upheaval (Trump and Boris) and things are going to get harder for those who feel they've got the short end of the stick - i.e. the uneducated or those who are educated but happened to choose the wrong field. They've seized on nutcases the first time around. The next wave of politicians speaking for them will be a lot slicker and not so easy to dismiss.

      1. the Jim bloke
        Terminator

        Re: Good news ???

        This is why one of the first targets for automation needs to be law enforcement / prole suppression.

        If you dont have your ED 209s to keep the great unwashed in line, they WILL be "doing it in the street and frightening the horses."

  9. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    I find it...

    ...quite frightening and I'm not that old. Amazon Go looks like it won't take off for years. Was supposed to be available early 2017 and still not. But the people behind all these ideas don't seem to be thinking about the people they are putting out of work. I also still wonder why we don't get discounts at the self service tills when we're saving the store money. Saving them money from not having to pay someone to man that till. I'm having to do it myself, so surely give me an fing discount. But then I realise if those tills gave a discount, everyone would use them and more people on the normal tills would be out of work.

    It's the same with "the cloud". Being in IT it's quite scary realising the job I have been doing for years is going to be phased out by the cloud. Unless I want to go and work in a data centre somewhere and learn loads more than I'm already required to know. My head will explode. I love IT but it's making me wonder if I need to look elsewhere because automation and the cloud in IT is starting to kill our jobs as well.

    1. spacecadet66

      Re: I find it...

      "I also still wonder why we don't get discounts at the self service tills when we're saving the store money."

      When a business finds a way to cut their costs, they have a choice between two courses of action:

      (a) Pass the savings on to the customer

      (b) Pocket the savings

      Guess which alternative virtually every business since the dawn of time has elected for.

      1. Charles 9

        Re: I find it...

        Because 9 times out of 10, what's the purpose of a purpose? Indeed, of ANY enterprise? To make money for the owner(s). Otherwise, why do it at all? It's simple human condition, really, and it would be hard to envision any way to change that behavior: not even using the law (since being monied, they could just decide to up and move away).

  10. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

    "This shift will contribute to the ongoing decline in urban retail and mall footprints, space likely to be filled by the e-commerce firms looking for warehouse space and distribution nodes in and around densely populated urban areas, provided municipal zoning regulations adapt."

    I doubt it. A well organised warehouse/distribution centre should be able to shift more stuff than the equivalent volume of shopping space. And note the metric is volume, not area. Low rise won't be attractive.

    It should be payback to all those business park landlords who've let their car parks out to parking vultunres when they find they've helped drive away the customers who ultimately paid the rents on the buildings. But I suppose they'll just make more money by developing the redundant space for housing.

  11. steviebuk Silver badge

    I see...

    ...with Amazon Go, everyone is young and pretty. No old people appear to exist according to Amazon. And similarly no disabled people appear to exist so everything is at height. With no one manning the shops, how will disabled people use their automated shops? If no one will be working at them, will everything be cheaper? Will the suppliers agree to take less of a cut due to these discounts? Will it just consist of security to stop people jumping the barrier and stealing everything? Who will the old people talk to when they go to shop if there is no one there? There are still a lot of old people who either don't like new tech or can't afford a mobile phone and contract required to use their store.

    Maybe, just maybe, this will create a revival of old local stores with actual people manning them because not everyone wants Amazon to be able to monitor everything you're buying.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I see...

      "And similarly no disabled people appear to exist so everything is at height. With no one manning the shops, how will disabled people use their automated shops?"

      They'll be encouraged to go online where physical handicaps are less of an issue and they can shop from the privacy of their homes. Unless you need something yesterday, which can be avoided with some planning.

      "Maybe, just maybe, this will create a revival of old local stores with actual people manning them because not everyone wants Amazon to be able to monitor everything you're buying."

      But no one would be able to afford them.

      1. ecofeco Silver badge

        Re: I see...

        But no one would be able to afford them.

        And that's one part of the two part problem of the local store.

        No one can afford the products and the store owners can't afford the rent per sq m/ft because even now, current real estate prices do not favor small enterprise... and rents NEVER go down.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: I see...

          "No one can afford the products and the store owners can't afford the rent per sq m/ft because even now, current real estate prices do not favor small enterprise... and rents NEVER go down."

          Long established family businesses on the high street probably own their property. Business rates would be a concern though.

          Our surviving local store seems to do quite well and employs about half a dozen people. They have carved a niche for lawn mower maintenance and general household small needs like tools, paint, kitchen items, light bulbs etc.

          They are usually cheaper than their only nearby supermarket competition. They display their larger items like garden equipment and furniture in a traditional large-ish area on the pavement outside the shop. At night it is interesting to see them pack it all away into every available space inside the shop.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: I see...

            "Long established family businesses on the high street probably own their property. Business rates would be a concern though."

            There's also pressure to sell, especially as they get older as they want to get their wills in order and their children may not be willing to continue the business. Land grabbers know this.

            "Our surviving local store seems to do quite well and employs about half a dozen people. They have carved a niche for lawn mower maintenance and general household small needs like tools, paint, kitchen items, light bulbs etc."

            Hardware stores are one of the last stalwarts, but even they face pressure from big-box hardware stores like The Home Depot and Lowe's. Consider: the Home Depot is one of the largest retail businesses in the world, right up there with Kroger and Walmart.

            "They are usually cheaper than their only nearby supermarket competition."

            What if the nearest competition, however, is a big box? There's one reason Walmart's often called the Bane of Main Street.

  12. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    So presumably all of the online shopping will be unloaded & delivered into people's houses by robots - good luck with that.

    1. Charles 9

      Not as difficult as you think. Most houses they just need to get to the doorstep. As for the rest, things can adapt. Blocks can perhaps have a dedicated person/robot (either way specialized for that location) to do the last bits from a common receiving area.

  13. Chris Miller

    Why should freight be carried from New York to Chicago by railroads when we could employ enormously more men, for example, to carry it all on their backs?

    Economics in One Lesson - Henry Hazlitt

    1. ecofeco Silver badge

      Unemployed people can't by things.

      Economic Collapse 101

    2. Charles 9

      "Why should freight be carried from New York to Chicago by railroads when we could employ enormously more men, for example, to carry it all on their backs?"

      The same reason nonliving cars replaced horses: the little matter called upkeep.

  14. ecofeco Silver badge

    Yeah... nope

    Full automation has been the capitalist wet dream for 100 years.

    I work in, on and near large scale production systems. As big they come. None bigger. Globe spanning. They still employees thousands of people at the sharp end and there is no plan within my lifetime to replace them because... it's really not cost effective.

    Sure, there has been some automation, just like there always has, but wholesale replacement is not going to happen any time soon.

    So take it from someone who actually works on these systems and not the ivory tower gits. It ain't gonna happen for a long time.

    Especially not given the current state of shitware.

  15. MaldwynP

    Killer people

    Forget killer robots. The idea that you can pay a basic income for the 80% of the population that will be redundant by 2030, does not understand the basics of life. All things need a purpose, however small. The idea that we will be happy staying at home doing 'arts' or odd jobs will end in tears. Look out robots, the people are coming for you with pitchforks and fiery brands.

  16. Christian Berger

    Well It might go another way

    Instead of the "Singularity" we might get the "Crapularity".

    We experience technology working less and less well. Ask a 1980s programmer to make a little database table editing program, and they'll write a few lines of dBase. As a 2017 programmer and you'll get several Java or PHP frameworks cobbled together which might, if everything was done competently, be as good as the 3 line solution from the 1980s.

    This is what we get today. Things become more and more complex. Where you used to have a simple manual listing commands to drive a peripheral, you now have huge software abstraction layers which usually lack the function you want to have.

    Currently companies like Google or Amazon still get the people who know how to solve a problem as simple and flexible as possible. It's unclear if this will continue. Eventually those people will retire and unless we ramp up education, there might not be a generation which grew up with actual computers.

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