Boffins grudgingly admit they may have found an exomoon After Twitter-leaks, a trio of exoplanet-hunters have decided to go public with observations they reckoned weren't quite up to broadcast-quality but which is rather significant: the first possible detection of a moon orbiting an exoplanet. It's hard enough to reliably spot exoplanets given that we do so by observing tiny …
Bayes factor is meant to compare 2 hypotheses to see which is more likely.
If both are equal then it's 0.5. However wikipedia has a list of 6 possible candidate exo-moons, so this would not be the first possible detection IOW there is some statistical data that can shift the probabilities.
I guess if its 2 then it's "Somewhat more likely, but by no means certain."
(Probably) nothing to see here even after the results from Hubble arrive. Move along.
Just to point out that the "tiny flickerings in a star", when detecting exoplanets, only occur when the orbital plane of the distant system is aligned with Earth and the exoplanet transits its star
For systems where the orbital plane is not aligned with Earth we detect exoplanets by observing the 'wobble' of the star due to it [the star] orbiting around an offset barycentre, the offset being caused by the presence of the exoplanet.
I might be wrong, but that's not my understanding of how it works. Yes, detecting a "wobble" on the star is one of the methods used, but not as one might imagine it - as "seeing the star literally wobble around" in the sky (which displacement would presumably be ludicrously small), but by detecting tiny Doppler shifts in its spectrum as it alternately moves towards / away from us. That, however, implies we're still in the same plane the wobble is happening in...
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