back to article Sayonara, Brits! The Irish tech sector could benefit from Brexit

There appears to be a broad consensus that a Brexit would be bad for Ireland: that Ireland’s economy would be seriously affected if the UK decides to leave the EU on June 23. A report by Irish business lobby group Ibec has warned of “the far-reaching impact on Ireland if our nearest neighbour, key trading partner and close …

  1. msknight

    Not quite the impact the brexiters fear

    English is still the glue that holds together many of those countries. It's a common language across many countries. I worked perfectly well for a number of years in Europe without speaking Dutch or German. Don't ask me about my French...

    A brexit won't change Ireland too much, outside the direct exit of the UK itself.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Not quite the impact the brexiters fear

      Ignoring the clearly stated fact that it will royally screw (historical pun intended) SMEs that export to the UK, and lots of jobs in small to medium companies will go to the wall, whereas the MNC FDI that will relocate to IRE from GB will not happen overnight. Already Brexit has wiped the 2015 sterling gains out:

      http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y

      Language is a commonality and not a glue though, and any Irish regional leaders of global corporations will be watching closely, as this will likely tip more jobs back towards Ireland. But while this is good for Irish tech, wouldn't you rather keep indigenous jobs in your country with their more direct returns to the local economy, than FDI jobs which, as this article shows, can be fickle to all of us no matter where we reside?

  2. Gordon 10
    FAIL

    Naff Statistic

    "The group argued that trade flows between Ireland and the UK (the country’s third-largest trading partner after the US and the rest of the EU)"

    So third largest trading partner when compared to 2 of the worlds biggest single markets, one of which Ireland is a part of. What about Ireland as a partner compared to each individual European country? What numpty came up with that comparison.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    As an Ex-pat living in Ireland but having a vote in the Ref...

    ... I'm probably going to vote Remain. Since we bring in a shed load of stuff from the UK via Dublin port and/or the North. If the UK votes to leave, then I'm fairly sure that the price of goods (that we already pay more here for, due to the UK wholesellers and every man and dog adding their exch rate Euro markup on) will just go up in price. They'll say it'll be the cost of importing it etc from a non EU country to 'justify it'.

    Seems to me most retailers have limited wholesale dealings with EU suppliers directly. Nearly everything comes via the UK due to either the retailer having a UK head office or our shared standards/legacy with the UK (plugs on electrical items / right hand drive car parts etc).

    Add to that the exch rate will possibly be nearly 1:1 and we'll be rightly done over more than we are currently. Some things will remain priced at 30-50% more than buying the equivalent in GBP in the North due to the retailers holding stock at their existing magical Euro markup rates. If the exch rate goes close to 1:1 then those near the border will start buying in the North as they did back in 2009.

    (As an aside I've bought high end server items from Germany directly in Euro. The Irish trade only suppliers here tend to source from the UK only. So the price was the converted German orig Euro price (for the retailer in the UK) in GBP, then converted back to Euro for Ireland. Needless to say the markup was about 2000 Euro on each item)... Just how it constantly works here.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Why Anon?

      Are you cowering in case your British friends find out you're voting Remain or in case your Irish friends find out that you're British?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Why Anon?

        I'm scared of Boris....

    2. Dave 15

      Re: As an Ex-pat living in Ireland but having a vote in the Ref...

      What is all this bull about the EU getting in the way of trade.

      They send more stuff to UK than UK does to the EU, the EU will not risk starting a trade war of any sort.

      The UK government hasn't the balls to try and protect the very little other than tax collecting and renting houses that passes for industry in the UK.

      Hence there will be very little in the way of any real change... and none that would make it harder to buy English bacon, cheese or beer in the EU (something you basically can't now)

  4. Len

    Malta is also English speaking

    "Ireland as the only remaining English-speaking member of the EU"

    There are currently three EU members with English as an official language, Malta is not going anywhere and won't abandon English as its language. Although I doubt many tech firms would relocate from the UK to Malta. Moving to Ireland makes more sense indeed.

    Furthermore, there are plenty of other EU countries where average standards of English are good enough to do business. A friend of mine moved to Amsterdam and lived and worked there in English-speaking businesses for six years before deciding to learn Dutch.

    1. noboard
      Pint

      Re: Malta is also English speaking

      If I had any say in a tech firm, I would definitely be arguing for a move to Malta. A nice spot near a beach I think and to hell with practicalities like Internet connections.

      1. Stephen 1

        Re: Malta is also English speaking

        Could you stop the buggers from slaughtering all the passing bird life while you're there please.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Malta is also English speaking

      Err, I work across Europe and the ONLY place I struggle because of English is France. They have as big a chip on their shoulder as we do, and they refuse to let their language become diluted, at least officially. I am afraid in the longer term that will be there loss.

      I was in jyvaaskyla in central Finland last week and the buggers there speak better English than I do (and that's a country where Swedish is the second language!).

  5. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

    More FUD

    A Brexit would lead to investment and currency uncertainty, disrupt trade, undermine the all-island economy and affect energy and climate change strategies, Ibec said.

    There's no reason that any of that would happen. UK and Ireland have had a free-travel zone since long before the EU existed, they used to share a currency before Ireland went off alone (which was pre-Euro) and the current Euro/Sterling situation won't change if the UK leaves. As for climate change and energy policy, they're signe dup to the same agreements and also share energy grids via interconnects which aren't going to evaporate on Brexit, unless they're planning to issue electrons with passports?

    It's this sort of FUD that makes people so skeptical of the pro and con arguments, they're all just theories pulled out of thin air to support whatever line the person proposing them wants to push.

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: More FUD

      So the idea is that the UK would leave the Eu to get more control over business and taxation - but continue to allow US companies to pretend to be in Ireland and pay no tax?

      Just out of a sense of nostalgia for the UK-Eire "special" relationship ?

      Yep - can see that happening.

      1. streaky

        Re: More FUD

        continue to allow US companies to pretend to be in Ireland and pay no tax?

        This is precisely why brexit would screw Ireland's pooch. They wouldn't be able to "evacuate" profits they claim were made in Ireland despite coming from UK sales and claim a single market defence. Upshot: Ireland's tech bullshit low tax low income low benefit to the state economy takes a massive proverbial kick in the teeth.

        Either way it's not going to affect UK voter opinions on the matter.

    2. Yes Me Silver badge

      Re: More FUD

      You sneeringly quote "investment and currency uncertainty, disrupt trade, undermine the all-island economy and affect energy and climate change strategies"

      That's probably an understatement of what would happen; no FUD there at all that I can see, just certainties. Mr Trump, no doubt, would also recommend a Wall between the Republic and the Province. I hope you feel good being on the same side as Trump.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: More FUD

      I disagree. Ireland exports more to the UK than anywhere else, and if Sterling continues to trend back down, UK importers will be less able to afford our goods, seriously impacting a major market. Unlike FDI, this mostly hits the more loyal and inwards investing local businesses. You assume the rate will remain unchanged, but already the GBP gains in 2015 have already evaporated over Brexit fears, with risk of falling as low as 1:1 parity predicted:

      http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=5Y

      You refer to a shared currency - the Irish pound ran at different values from 1210 to 1801, at which point military control of the island of Ireland was mostly complete. By 1826, the UK moved Ireland onto the UK pound. Once the Free State was created in 1922, Sterling was retained until 1928, at which point a seperate currency was created, but using the same gold ratio, it was artificially pegged to the value of sterling, which compensated for the damage done by the churlish embargo and financial disruption approach taken by the Empire. Eventually the goods which could no longer be taken by force needed to be traded, which thawed this somewhat, and by the 70s, Ireland entered the EMS, breaking the pegging in 1979. So essentially largely seperate except when under direct military control, and even the pegging stopped 37 years ago. Not exactly a current review of things there...

      Irish/UK free travel is currently granted under European agreements, and for this I have no doubt than the 2 years lead in would allow time for us to negotiate similar for mutual benefit - or else the border will be very difficult. Interesting times for the already expensive to maintain North ahead as well.

      I'd be wary of anti-FUD FUD, when you should at least consider the facts first. I agree that much of it will right-size within 5 years because life goes on no matter what, and it will certainly not be truly calamitous, but it will move cost jobs, trade, and relocate businesses. In the UK and outside, we will be dealing with areas of increased unemployment and government dissatisfaction, trade challenges, and legal agreements being renegotiated. It does sometimes feel like the Brexit arguments are all emotive.

      But hey, Trump has your back now, so it'll all be fine!

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: More FUD

        if Sterling continues to trend back down, UK importers will be less able to afford our goods, seriously impacting a major market.

        And this is true whether the UK leaves the EU or not, so is completely irrelevant FUD.

        shared currency...Not exactly a current review of things there...

        Didn't suggest it was, indeed quite the opposite. I well remember when Ireland broke the link last time, all the jokes about "so we can sink on our own". Sadly prophetic. And again, as you have explained, irrelevant to the EU since UK and Ireland have clearly managed a working trading relationship despite past currency changes.

        Irish/UK free travel is currently granted under European agreements,

        It's a special argreement that goes much further than any EU arrangements, since neither RoI or UK are in Schengen, and it's been in place since before the EU existed. Outside of the military restrictions during the "Troubles", cross-border travel hasn't needed passports or any other documents in my lifetime, beyond a customs declaration if you were crossing by car. Again, no EU connection, just more FUD.

        By the way, what's your fixation with Trump? He seeems much more aligned with the pro-EU bits of the British isles, scottish golf courses, etc., than with brexit.He's probably the least relevant wannabe politician as far as that is concerned.

  6. Ken 16 Silver badge
    Holmes

    Respected economist David McWilliams

    please amend to "Economist David McWilliams" or clarify that the respect is largely self generated. In fairness he also predicted the Irish Economy's collapse in 1998, 2002 and 2005 before being proven right in 2007.

    Aside from the source, I agree with the general theme of the article. Our Common Travel Area should protect us from the worst of the cross border freeze, while our tech and financial sectors should benefit from the collapse of the UK as an EU trade centre.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Respected economist David McWilliams

      while our tech and financial sectors should benefit from the collapse of the UK as an EU trade centre.

      Could I just say you're welcome to all the businesses of the City of London?

      If you want your economy (again?) distorted by bonus-obsessed, corrupt financial services mega-corporations, and the leeches of the legal, accountancy and consultancy sector you're welcome to the lot. Yes there's several billion in tax income you'll benefit from, but soon the entire Irish economy will be run for the benefit of those people, and the ordinary masses will be backstopping the risks whilst being laughed at by the 1%'ers.

      Whilst successive UK governments cosseted the big corporations of the City, they've let UK manufacturing rot, pushed up the cost of doing real business with real jobs for normal people, and presided over a vastly distorted economy.

      Ireland's welcome to all of that.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Respected economist David McWilliams

        >Ireland's welcome to all of that.

        Pretty much has it already...

        Irish Water

        Siteserv

        Nama

        Eircode

        Banks Bail Out

        Etc

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Respected economist David McWilliams

      "In fairness he also predicted the Irish Economy's collapse in 1998, 2002 and 2005 before being proven right in 2007."

      Well, that's an outstanding record for an economist.

  7. The Islander
    Unhappy

    Disruption but not as we know it?

    If the UK exits, I can see the EU striking policy (and rules as necessary) to ensure that the largely intact (for now) European hegemony treats the outsider in a uniform way. When it comes down to the wire, a small peripheral open economy will not be best served by euro-centric philosophy, as has been observed in the last few years.

    I can't see the emerald isle faring well in trade or free movement of anything - at the very least, I'd expect UK border controls at the RoI / NI border to rise significantly to offset the phobia that such an access point could become a gateway to the UK for the "wrong sort of people".

    Ireland has suffered from being an island at the most westerly point in Europe, necessitating greater logistics cost to exchange material, total erosion of manufacturing capacity of practical consumer goods, strength in agriculture that increasingly squeezes out the small farmer and adoption of the almighty service culture. Leaving it very exposed to external wobbles such as a decline in trade with its nearest neighbour - even if such trade is "only" 15%.

    There have been winners & losers along this journey, and undoubtedly that story will continue - maybe different people - should there be a Brexit. But it seems to me that a minority government relying on "independent" parliamentarians - who hours before electing a prime minister were demanding their pound of flesh for localised pet projects - will not have the capacity to steer the country effectively through a Brexit.

    1. 8Ace

      Re: Disruption but not as we know it?

      It has already been confirmed by UK Gov that in the event of UK exit border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will not be re-instated. The border will remain open, and to all intents and purposes unmarked, as is the case currently. There is too much cross border co-operation on everything from infrastructure to health for this to happen.

      1. Ken 16 Silver badge
        Mushroom

        Border Controls

        More controversially, the UK government have spoken about introducing "border control-like things" on the more easily policed sea and air routes from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Border Controls

          More controversially, the UK government have spoken about introducing "border control-like things" on the more easily policed sea and air routes from Northern Ireland to Great Britain.

          Why? Irish citizens have the right to live, work, and vote in the UK, predating any EU rules. There isn't a snowball's chance in hell that either government or population would tolerate something like passport checks between the countries being introduced.

      2. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

        Re: Disruption but not as we know it?

        The border was pretty permeable to Armalites and semtex so it is likely to stay open for people doing a bit of shopping or buying cheap petrol.

        It doesn't mean that Google/MSFT/Amazon etc can treat it as an open border for tax reasons

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Disruption but not as we know it?

          It doesn't mean that Google/MSFT/Amazon etc can treat it as an open border for tax reasons

          Why not? If the twerps of Westminster had any balls they could have enforced existing rules on transfer pricing, and even failing that obvious check, could have imposed a withholding tax. But successive UK governments haven't because they're quite happy to accommodate tax dodging US corporations.

          If the tossers won't act now, why would anything vary in future?

    2. Ken 16 Silver badge
      Big Brother

      capacity to steer the country effectively?

      Out government probably don't have the capacity to steer the country effectively through a set of orange cones laid out in the Leinster House car park but if they keep their mouths shut and do nothing it should sort itself out in time.

    3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

      Re: Disruption but not as we know it?

      'I'd expect UK border controls at the RoI / NI border to rise significantly to offset the phobia that such an access point could become a gateway to the UK for the "wrong sort of people".'

      This has never been achieved in the past.

      If by the Islander handle you mean the island of Ireland you'll probably be aware of the fact that there are properties which actually straddle the border. It's not feasible to put border controls within farms or houses.

    4. streaky

      Re: Disruption but not as we know it?

      to offset the phobia that such an access point could become a gateway to the UK for the "wrong sort of people"

      But this has always been true - both the fear and the reality. Nothing about in or out will change anything even remotely related to any of this.

      It's not like any of this is difficult to do, easily patrol-able with MQ-9's until something more permanent could be set up. Indeed the only reason it is like it is is purely down to historical reasons that aren't worth anything when it comes down to it. Sends a message that you give a shit about security of people in the north if nothing else.

  8. Slx

    To be fair to both countries, they're both massive tax and regulatory havens. I find it more than a little hypocritical when British commentators get all high and mighty about Ireland's low corporate tax rates while benefiting from the light touch regulation no questions asked centre of the world known as the City of London.

    The consequences for Ireland are likely to be unpredictable, as they will be for the UK.

    Bear in mind UK exports TO Ireland are enormous. We are your 5th biggest export market.

    It will also have a disproportionate impact on SMEs in both jurisdictions as they're the kinds of companies that might have limited expert trade and find it difficult to skirt new customs barriers.

    We basically have no idea how this might pan out. It's likely to be a very mixed bag.

  9. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Britain should go, but the vote will turn out to be no....

    Change is always a scary thing to people. Too many unknowns. Look at how the vote in Scotland went when everything came down to it.... It would be better for Ireland to be CTA-free of the UK, but it won't happen.... Its just political posturing....

  10. arctic_haze

    Brexited UK would start to crumble

    Scotland would most certainly have another independence referendum, this time on a "Let's stay in Europe" platform. Good luck with that, England.

    There's more. Ireland would be divided by a real border for the first time in recent history. The pressure to reunite the island would grow.

    An England + Wales rump of the "United" Kingdom would be a sad monument of Cameron's failure.

    1. Slx

      Re: Brexited UK would start to crumble

      Also, it's worth remembering that some of the Northern Ireland peace agreements were predicated on EU membership as are many of the cross-border bodies and just practical cooperation measures that go on across a whole range of services and infrastructure at this stage.

      I'm not sure how that's going to work...

      1. 8Ace

        I'm not sure how that's going to work...

        .. it won't. It's a small island and as such the two "countries" have logically decided to pool their resources. For example Kids in N.I. who need heart treatment will have that south of the border in Dublin, cancer services for the North West on both sides of the border will be provided in Derry in N.Ireland.

        It's ridiculous that the In/Out decision will effectively be decided in England where issues such as this have no relevance whatsoever.

    2. Dave 15

      Re: Brexited UK would start to crumble

      Really... I think we would have to consent to Scotland having a referendum on separation that has any real clout. Perhaps while the UK is being asked if it wants to offload the EU we should be asked if we want to offload Scotland as well... the rump I have no doubt would say offload to both!

      But to be honest a prosperous England and Wales would be worth the disruption. Without being forced by whitehall interpretations of eu regulation to spend all our money on out of date Spanish tanks, over priced German police cars and council trucks, Italian trains and all the rest of the foreign crud we could actually spend some British tax payers money on getting British workers off the dole and into factories making the stuff we actually need. When we have done that we will have British companies with product they could then go out and sell to the rest of the world... amazing idea but one which might just about make us richer than relying on employing people to collect sugar tax and hoping some foreigner will buy our houses to milk the buy to let market (that also happens to have the rents... therefore the profit... funded by the British tax payer)

  11. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Stay or go!

    Just stop with the portmanteau words already!

  12. Disgruntled
    WTF?

    Currency

    "A Brexit would lead to investment and currency uncertainty"

    That's right, there would be a big change in that Ireland would have the Euro and the UK would have the Pound, that's a massive change that will have a big impact on both countries.

  13. organiser

    "while it might be able to set its own corporation tax after Brexit"

    The UK sets its own corporation tax even within the EU, as does any other EU country.

  14. FreeTard

    As an Irishman, I'd hate to see the UK leave - coz it will be a royal pain in the arse getting visa's and all that for a week-end away, not to mention border restrictions (again) up north.

    Don't leave us lads, you're our best mates FFS.

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