nav search
Data Center Software Security DevOps Business Personal Tech Science Emergent Tech Bootnotes
BOFH
Lectures

back to article
Elon Musk's latest Tesla Model 3 delivery promise: 6,000... a week

Silver badge

Having an electric car is fine and dandy al that, but they don't tell you about the costs of replacing the batteries.

If one gives you cheese, you have to replace all of them, and usually end up with a more expensive car than a fossil-fuel based one....

6
12
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

For most people this won't be an issue.

This report

https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/

Shows that Tesla's can lose around 10% of charge after 160,000 miles. How much power does your Petrol/Diesel engine lose after that sort of distance?

Hardly significant IMHO.

Anyway, by the time most people want to replace their batteries, the price will be less than 50% of what it is now.

OR

you could buy a Renault Zoe and lease the battery... No worries about replacing it then are there?

23
5

Re: Replacing the batteries.

> This report

> https://electrek.co/2018/04/14/tesla-battery-degradation-data/

> Shows that Tesla's can lose around 10% of charge after

> 160,000 miles. How much power does your Petrol/Diesel

> engine lose after that sort of distance?

err...none, whatsoever.

Interesting that Tesla's lithium ion batteries seem to last forever, whereas nobody elses seem to; including the ones in people's 'phones.

I feel sure the genius that is Elon Musk must be telling the truth and all the scientists and engineers are wrong about the degradation of chemical batteries. /s

13
16
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Same has been reported on the Leafs and Zoes etc, the batteries have been outlasting first and second owner and counting.

8
4
Boffin

Re: Replacing the batteries.

> Interesting that Tesla's lithium ion batteries seem to last forever

No, they lose 10% after 160 K miles. My personal testing on lithium batteries shows that, if I don't discharge them below about 50%, they can last for a very long time. Test case of an iPaq 951 lithium battery replaced in 2004 and not allowed to discharge much most of the time ... it's now down to 65% capacity after 14 years. Still going strong, but the battery is getting kinda bumpy though, since the case wasn't meant to last that long.

11
3
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

I hope you mean "how much worse does the fuel consumption get?", not how much power, because that's the correlation.

Old carburettor engines and mechanical injection Diesels used to worsen fuel consumption more or less once they left the showroom as carbon built up, needles wore and so on, but it's less of an issue nowadays.

6
1
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

My personal testing on lithium batteries shows that, if I don't discharge them below about 50%, they can last for a very long time.

Great. To ensure longevity of my Tesla, I have to treat it with kid gloves and recharge at half the potential range. Can you think of any downsides?

Taking the model S, that's a circa 100k car with a routine range of 150 miles. Nice.

6
8
IT Angle

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Don't forget that the last 20% of said batteries are off-limits, unlocked by a special check-box that says, explicitly "I will make a long trip and require the full charge available", and said checkbox will clear itself in 72 hours. Some Tesla owner can show you that software button. Otherwise, you never get to fully charge the car to its full autonomy.

And I assume those remaining 20% (AND HERE IS YOUR IT ANGLE) gets to join an over-provisioning scheme, where these cells won't be actively charged and discharged, and will be probably used like that extra space in SSD drives, to increase durability of the battery pack, by reducing the number of cycles in each cell.

10
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: Replacing the batteries.

"No, they lose 10% after 160 K miles."

And the range drops 33% when it hits zero degrees (freezing) and about 50% by the time it reaches -10. I hate to think what it is at -30.

12
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: Replacing the batteries.

"Taking the model S, that's a circa 100k car with a routine range of 150 miles. Nice."

Or half that, when you need reliability the most, with a carbon footprint that starts off equivalent to 8 years of driving a gasoline powered vehicle, assuming none of your electricity causes carbon emissions somewhere along the line. If you do have to replace the battery, reset the carbon counter.

4
6
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

> How much power does your Petrol/Diesel

> engine lose after that sort of distance?

err...none, whatsoever.

Are you high? Engines degrade over time with wear and tear on the drive train, on the valves, maintaining compression etc. Do you really think that when you stick a 10-20yr old car* on a dyno it will generate the same bhp?

* UK average miles driven per year is <8k miles, (with large variance, I know! You don't need to tell me how you commute from Plymouth to Skegness every morning, IDGAF). For comparison, US average mileage is between 15-20k

13
0

Re: Replacing the batteries.

As far as I'm aware, the fuel tank doesn't shrink over the life of a petrol car and can supply the fuel at the same rate as the day it left the factory. BHP has nothing to do with this, the efficiency of conversion of stored chemical energy into kinetic energy does.

2
10
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Power != Range.

The RANGE of a 10 year old petrol car won't have degraded all that much. It's power might have a bit, but then again, in normal road use you don't really use all of it most of the time. And a good service will bring back many of the lost horses to the stable.

The range of a 10 year old Tesla is diminished. And so is the power (maximum amperage the batteries can deliver also diminishes). I'll take the 10 year old petrol car most of the time (depends on the engine if it's a good choice)

5
2
Silver badge
Headmaster

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Power != Range.

No shit. But the poster I was quoting said the power of an old car does not decrease. I even included it in the quote so it was clear what was being referred to. I find arguments that start with outright blatant lies difficult to digest.

11
0
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

And the range drops 33% when it hits zero degrees (freezing) and about 50% by the time it reaches -10. I hate to think what it is at -30.

If the UK ever got down to -30 I'd be staying home. Southerners simply can't drive in the snow [1], and a progression down to -30 will likely result in snow frequently in the UK. There's no point going out to try and drive if the road will be impassable because of abandoned vehicles.

[1] - Sorry folks, but its true. In fairness, the south gets about 5 minutes snow a year, so most locals just don't have any real experience of it.

7
0
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Are you high? Engines degrade over time with wear and tear on the drive train, on the valves, maintaining compression etc. Do you really think that when you stick a 10-20yr old car* on a dyno it will generate the same bhp?

It depends on how well its looked after. When I had my play thing tuned on a rolling road [1], it'd lost half a pony from book value in 15 years (0.5 bhp drop). In the interests of full disclosure, its given a full service annually and an oil change every 6k or after winter whatever comes first.

EFI and ignition coupled with proper exhaust gas analysis mean coking doesn't happen any more, and wear & tear can be minimised with a proper warm up and cool down procedure and frequent oil & filter changes. Modern oils are a massive help too.

Don't mistake this post for concern that a Tesla loses 10% of range over 160k miles - that sort of range drop doesn't bother me. As I've posted before, my bladder can only manage about 200 miles between stops, so anything with a greater range is mostly workable for me these days.

[1] its normal to do a before and after run if you're having a lot of work done so you can validate the improvement and ensure any problem isn't caused by the changes.

5
0

Re: " We need to act before it’s too late and London’s success is threatened. "

Are you high? Engines degrade over time with wear and tear on the drive train, on the valves, maintaining compression etc. Do you really think that when you stick a 10-20yr old car* on a dyno it will generate the same bhp?

Fifth Gear did that very test on an old VW Corrado. They gave it a service, ran some Redex through it, shoved it on a dyno and it was within a couple of BHP of its advertised power when new.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efIJHf7h5kI

2
0

Re: Replacing the batteries.

The different range options on a Tesla actually uses the same physical battery, the software limitations are just different. Now then, why does it cost more to be allowed to use more of the battery's capacity? Because using less makes it last longer and lowers Tesla's warranty repair costs.

When it comes to phones, the phone manufacturers crank the settings all the way to the "maximum capacity, some explosions, short life" end of the scale. And sometimes a bit too far.

0
0

Re: Replacing the batteries.

> Are you high? Engines degrade over time with wear and tear

> on the drive train, on the valves, maintaining compression etc.

> Do you really think that when you stick a 10-20yr old car*

> on a dyno it will generate the same bhp?

As it happens, initially engines are a bit 'tight' which will mean some losses to friction and lower mpg.

I tell you, you're talking horseshit if you think a modern engine with 160k on the clock is going to develop significantly less power than when new. I'm talking a normal 4-stroke car engine made by people who understand QA. ie. the Japanese manufacturers.

Just for the record. I studied mech/man engineering. It seems you watch Clarkson, absorb whatever old pony he has to say about cars and regurgitate it.

0
1
Holmes

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Funnily enough I saw a Tesla on the QEII Highway on Tuesday, while driving up to Edmonton, fun times when winter comes around for them as Winter definitely gets to -30C or lower in Alberta.

They could trickle charge from 110V block heater outlets in most car parks at Calgary transit stations & the like, but that only gets about 3 miles of range per hour parked (Daily average 8 - 10 hours).

0
0
Silver badge

Re: Replacing the batteries.

My petrol engine car drops 10MPG when it's around zero C outside.

That's a 20% drop in range.

Who'd have thunk it?

And yes, old internal combustion engines on a dyno do show a loss of power when they get old.

Not that any normal public road driving should ever need to use the full BHP potential of any engine.

1
0

Re: Replacing the batteries.

Battery discharge level is one part of the equation where rechargeable longevity is concerned. The bigger problem is charging past the 'bulk charge' point. this is typically 80% of battery capacity. Charging to 100% may be needed for the occasional long journey, but generally it's best not to go above 80% and for long battery life, this should be considered the normal maximum. Generally, it looks as though most Teslas, driven reasonably sensibly, will be good for half a million miles plus.

0
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: Replacing the batteries.

not quite

My 2cv regularly uses all the horses it has. All 24 of them! still, 40mpg for a 40 year old wagon isn't bad.

0
0
Anonymous Coward

The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

They are having issues scaling their production up to levels exptected by the arse talkers from Wall St.

Some reports indicate quality problems but they seem minor.

IMHO, the Model 3 is the wrong car for Europe in that it is a sedan/saloon and it is too expensive.

It will sell but not in the numbers (outside the USA) that many Wall St types (especially Bloomberg) think.

We'll have to wait another 2 years for the Model Y by which time, other makes will be selling EV's and the advantage that Tesla has will be either gone or disappearing.

2
2

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

'They are having issues scaling their production up to levels exptected by the arse talkers from Wall St.'

The arse talkers of Wall St. are irrelevant. The established manufacturers are coming and Tesla has a year or so to get volume manufacturing going or it will be swamped. JLR is first up with the I-pace but Audi will be along before the end of the year.

13
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

JLR is first up with the I-pace but Audi will be along before the end of the year.

JLR badged I-pace. Its made in Austria by contract car maker `Magna Steyr.

2
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

"the Model 3 is the wrong car for Europe in that it is a sedan/saloon "

What do they drive in Europe? I had thought the truck/SUV dominance was primarily elsewhere.

5
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

'"the Model 3 is the wrong car for Europe in that it is a sedan/saloon "

'What do they drive in Europe?'

Well I drive a hatchback and indeed I don't really want a saloon, despite having ordered one. especially one that is wider than my existing car for no good reason. Neither do I want a car where I have to use a touchscreen to adjust the radio volume etc, nor one without the main instrument display directly in front of me. I'd also like to buy from a place somewhere near to me, or at least be able to get it serviced nearby.

12
1

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

"the Model 3 is the wrong car for Europe in that it is a sedan/saloon "

"What do they drive in Europe? I had thought the truck/SUV dominance was primarily elsewhere."

Hatchbacks...

In the UK at least the top-selling car is the Ford Fiesta (and pretty much always has been)

The next seven (at least for 2017) are hatchbacks, with the Mercedes C-class (at no. 9) being the only sedan in the top 10. BMW 3-series is probably just outside the top 10, but aside from those it's hatchbacks (including SUVs and MPVs) most of the way.

France is similar in it's love of hatchbacks - pretty much every French car model is a hatchback and the French are fairly partisan in their choices.

Germany likes their BMWs, Audis and Mercs as sedans, but even those makers have a lot of hatchback variants (BMW 1-series plus all the Xs and GT variants; Merc A-class, CLA and all the Gs; Audi A1, A3 and all the Qs)

10
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

Nice try - please have a read about Magna, Nedcar, Valmet and a whole bunch of other contract manufacturers.

The i-pace is a Jag just as the thousands of Boxsters made in Finland by Valmet are Porsches and Minis in Netherlands are Minis. Manufacturers care about the design and the sales - production is somthing they'd all love to be rid of as the money is made elsewhere.

9
0
Anonymous Coward

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

Here in the US, the Chevy Bolt is available at a lower cost (the Model 3a actually in production are running around $49K) and a greater range (238 miles for the Bolt vs 220 for the Model 3). That has to be a consideration when looking at a small EV such as the Model 3.

4
2
Silver badge

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

IMHO, the Model 3 is the wrong car for Europe in that it is a sedan/saloon and it is too expensive.

I think the model 3 could be perfect for Europe. It could replace both my family car and my play thing, in terms of 0-60 time and practicality (doors, space etc). Most of the time I use the abnormally high power output of the play thing to get the drop on traffic exiting roundabouts / lights etc, creating space for the morons to do their thing without banging into me; I rarely use the full output for very long.

Now, before everyone hits me over the head with the "electric cars won't work at scale due to the grid" stick, I agree, however, for me (assuming you lot don't switch over) a model 3 could work really rather well.

The snag is, the price is higher than I pay for my cars, so I'd have to wait until it drops about half its value, so likely to be 10 years after they crack the mass production issue.

1
2
Silver badge

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

"I think the model 3 could be perfect for Europe."

At 4.7 metres long it's just too big - though given your nick I guess you ignore 95% of cars. The Leaf is also rather large for a commuter vehicle. Current battery technology means that small electric cars really don't work.

1
0
Silver badge

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

"They are having issues scaling their production up to levels exptected by the arse talkers from Wall St."

They are having issues scaling their production up to the levels that Musk has explicitly said they will manage. It's not Wall Street setting the targets that keep being missed, it's Tesla themselves. It can be fair enough to blame speculators and "analysts" when share prices jump around the place because reality didn't match with their imaginations, but when a company consistently misses its own production targets and has steadily growing losses, there's no-one else to blame.

1
0
Silver badge

Re: The Model 3 is coming.... er??? 2019 or is that 2020?

At 4.7 metres long it's just too big

Shorter than an Insignia or a Mondeo then?

6 inches longer than a Merc C class is too big?

0
0
Silver badge
Alert

A good salesman is like a double-edged sword. Sometimes the product works and then it's a good thing. If the product does not work, then good salesmen are dangerous. Personally, I tend to avoid buying from good salesmen.

Elon Musk is an excellent salesman.

13
2
Silver badge

how does tesla manufacturing compare to others?

Keep seeing headlines how they are doing bad about keeping up with their targets. But am curious how they compare to production lines of the bigger manufacturers (preferably taking into account size of factory etc). e.g. not fair to compare 10 toyota factories to 1 tesla factory (no idea how many factories toyota may have or how big they are), is there any stats on this kind of thing? I guess my point is more is Tesla doing a good job at making cars given the resources available? (seems that they may only have the one factory for cars in the bay area, excluding the battery factory(ies))

2
1
Anonymous Coward

Re: how does tesla manufacturing compare to others?

A close family member works for an automotive focused automation specialist, and they have worked all across Europe on big car maker projects. They described Tesla as chaotic to work for and have told their employer they won't work on the Tesla contract in future.

It seems to me that Musk unfortunately believes his own legend these days, and thinks that he can both walk on water and command the tide to go back. Big wank-off projects like firing a car into space do require a big wank-off ego to make them happen. However, creating the vastly complex, finely tuned machine of a successful car maker requires careful planning, team work, dull diligence, and humility. Not to mention supply chain. Making rockets is purely engineering. Making cars in volume is purely about supply chain. I think Tim Cook would be a brilliant car maker, Elon Musk would be brilliant heading up Apple.

9
2
Anonymous Coward

Re: how does tesla manufacturing compare to others?

All the above post displays is a gross lack of understanding of orbital class booster and spacecraft manufacturing.

5
0
Coat

Re: how does tesla manufacturing compare to others?

I wonder how much range of travel that Tesla has on its batteries at -270.5C.

0
0
Silver badge
Windows

I'm just wondering if the collective auto analysts have completely forgotten the late 70's. Perhaps they're too young now to consider that as anything other than 'ancient' history. Chrysler decided that automation all the way through was needed and trashed Windsor. It was 3 years of production before either the K or the Caravan was considered less than "trash".

Given that in November Tesla was only managing 200 or so cars a week to be now cranking out 2000+ cars a week says that *something* got done. I've seen two videos done in late november last year that absolutely mauled Tesla for alignment and gaps on the model 3. I cannot imagine that the issues raised in those videos have continued. I *know* that when I first looked at a Kia van (urrr.... '05 or 06 ish) even the one they rolled off the truck had issues just as bad as in those videos, and I'm pretty sure it was 3 years after that before they got better than trash reviews.

Anyone have a recently rolled off the line Model 3 to look over?

6
1
Silver badge

I've seen two videos done in late november last year that absolutely mauled Tesla for alignment and gaps on the model 3. I cannot imagine that the issues raised in those videos have continued.

Why not? Most American car buyers regard cars as a commodity, and don't care about the detail. So Tesla have churned out every Model S looking like it has suffered a bad crash repair. Why would they work on precision manufacture when their core market doesn't care about that?

Even Tesla show cars are APPALLINGLY turned out. I've seen display cars with kerbed alloys, dinged panels, orange peel paintwork, and gap alignment that makes my teeth look straight.

6
2
Bronze badge

6000 a week?

Will it be like the film Gung Ho then?

0
0
Silver badge

Musk realizes over-automation was a bad idea

"Yes, excessive automation at Tesla was a mistake. To be precise, my mistake. Humans are underrated."

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/984882630947753984

2
0
Silver badge

Promises, Promises...

Elon Musk needs to start a Broadway Play. Given his hype he might even make money if it fails. Or not.

1
0
Silver badge

That graph just makes me piss myself.

That's quite literally an "Elon Musk Self-Appreciation Fund", because that's huge amounts of money to piss away and never make a profit, and not fulfill even a quite rubbish production level promise. Ford are pushing out ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more cars for not much more money ($7bn income in 2017, selling 5-7 MILLION cars worldwide every year - that's 1000 times as many cars for only 10 times the income!).

I honestly don't get why Tesla get any publicity at all. They make fairly basic cars, from fairly basic components (nothing special, just the bog-standard tech in terms of motor, battery etc.), sell next-to-nothing, exist only because of a sugardaddy pumping money into them, can't even get a factory working, miss every target, automate-everything only to then claim humans-do-it-better, skirt bankruptcy constantly, and still can't do basic things like stop the automated stuff killing people by forcing drivers to drive still.

5
5
Silver badge
Angel

But have you seen how the rear doors of a Tesla X open?? SO COOL!

Joking aside, I think Tesla are the only cars where the dashboard computer display is worth a damn. As far as I've seen, all the competition use roughly the same quality as in-flight entertainment systems.

Not that I'll buy any electric car soon, because I don't feel like planning on advance where I'll plug my car during road trips.

4
2
Anonymous Coward

Nahhhhh

I'll stick with my V8 petrol engine powered and human-driven car.

Petrol is still relatively cheap, at least here.

Apols to the people of 2098 and beyond, yes, we were bastards!

3
4
Silver badge

Re: Nahhhhh

In the UK, 750ml of water can cost upwards of £1.50.

A litre of petrol in the UK can cost upwards of £1.17.

Considering what goes in to the process of making petrol, compared to bottling water, petrol is extremely cheap.

2
1

Re: Nahhhhh

Or the bottle of water is insanely expensive

7
0

Page:

POST COMMENT House rules

Not a member of The Register? Create a new account here.

  • Enter your comment

  • Add an icon

The Register - Independent news and views for the tech community. Part of Situation Publishing