"I expect to remain CEO for the foreseeable future"
At least until the 00 section catch up with him.
Elon Musk may be entertaining world+dog with his impressive space invasion but back on terra firma his electric car biz Tesla has just reported its fattest ever quarterly loss. The car and battery biz hemorrhaged $675.4m in the three months ending 31 December compared with a loss of $121m for the same period the previous year …
> I expect he will remain Tesla CEO till just before it becomes obvious Tesla investors are going to lose their shirts
Speaking as a Tesla investor.
I never ever expected to make a profit out of it. I put a non-insignificant sum into it years ago because I thought it was a crazy idea that should be attempted and The Musk looked insane enough to actually go for it. That investment has gone up well over 1000% so far and I could just retire and live comfortably off it.
But I don't care if, when or how he burns it, I'm not in it for the money. Whatever happens, the world is already a different place than back when this guy came up with the idea said "I'm going to do this", and I'm happy to contribute my small part to that.
As it was said from that British army officer¹, "his men would follow him anywhere, if only out of curiosity".
¹ Incidentally, I actually had an NCO like that.
"So I'm hopeful that people think that if we can send a Roadster to the asteroid belt, we could probably solve Model 3 production."
I look forward to it. I mean he said he was aiming for Mars but then ended up in the Astroid belt, it might mean the Model 4 gets put in to production before he finishes the 500,000 back orders of the Model 3?
I guess that's the difference between an engineering, scientific approach and seat of the pants showboating.
"Second star on the right and straight on 'til morning" is fine poetry, but it's not engineering. Musk talks about goals as if he's doing engineering but (what I suspect is) his true nature as a showman comes through when it comes to the deliveries.
I look forward to it. I mean he said he was aiming for Mars but then ended up in the Astroid belt, it might mean the Model 4 gets put in to production before he finishes the 500,000 back orders of the Model 3?
Dunno about that, but that Roadster paid for itself by a factor of 100+. Just being able to go out in front of investors and use this line probably costs a few 100 millions (in terms of share value).
"Dunno about that, but that Roadster paid for itself by a factor of 100+. Just being able to go out in front of investors and use this line probably costs a few 100 millions (in terms of share value)."
The stock has taken a right beating this week with a loss of about $5 billion in market Cap. Using the logic above, it could also be said that they would have been better off just loading the upper stage with politicians instead of the car.
"I mean he said he was aiming for Mars but then ended up in the Astroid belt"
In all honestly, he was aiming for AT LEAST Mars. They burned the upper stage to depletion regardless of target. It showed them how far the upper stage could get almost to Ceres, which is no mean feat. Honestly it would not have taken all that much fuel to get to Jupiter's orbit. In fact, the orbit it is in now will actually be affected by Jupiter making the orbit somewhat unstable, and the possibility exists that the roadster will be now ejected from the Solar System entirely by Jupiter at some stage in the distant future.
"In all honestly, he was aiming for AT LEAST Mars. They burned the upper stage to depletion regardless of target."
go here and have a play... the green orbit is the Roadster... take the simulation with a grain of salt as it is done with the currently available numbers which will change over time...
sorry for the long url...
http://orbitsimulator.com/gravitySimulatorCloud/yr/gsim2018.html?sv,1,2018-017A,2458157.50,-111460718436.256134,96755918467.335342,-75465634.877971,-22692.886039,-25294.933534,-722.153515,0,0,00FF00,90,65,,16000,0,12,1,0,
here it is shortened...
https://tinyurl.com/yabgew5v
"It showed them how far the upper stage could get almost to Ceres,"
If they didn't do the PR stunt of trying to land the boosters, they could have made it to Ceres. If they were really clever, they might have been able to land the car on Ceres. That would have shown more acumen than just flinging the rocket up as far as they could make it go. A photo of the roadster on the surface of Ceres would be serious space cred.
If you think calling out criminals is 'right-wing frothing' then that tells me everything I need to know about you.
Isn't this (https://www.bicycling.com/culture/tesla-is-paying-employees-to-commute-by-bike) a crime? Ridin a bike is a crime as afar as I'm concerned.
If I worked in the office I would love to be paid to bike to work, in fact when I did work in an office that's exactly what I did, every day and in the winter. How is riding a bike a crime? Can you get arrested for walking under false pretences?
I've tried to understand some of your bizarre commentary in the past but it seems I was off in deliberations so I think I'm going to have to ask if you were dropped as a baby? You may need to confirm this with parents.
If you really think there's some kind of pride to be had in riding a bike (which is a crime, by the way) then there is no reasoning with you.
It's a shame you can't be consistent in your trolling:
Back in 2014 you wrote:
Would I buy A Tesla? When you pry my Scott CR1 Pro from my cold dead hands, then maybe I'll consider it. :)
A Scott CR1 Pro is a bicycle, isn't it?
Ridin a bike is a crime as afar as I'm concerned.
As someone who lives in a criminal city where there is less than 1% of households without a cyclist, has a criminal wife (which clocks 16 miles a day bike commute) and two thoroughly criminal children (who commute to school and nearly all of their activities on bikes clocking up to 10 miles on some days) I am going to be short and to the point: F*ck off.
Alternative suggestion: HiIde under your bridge and continue to work on your morbid obesity, it suits you.
By the way, every time I end up working for a Valley company (it is a recurring mistake), my first thought is how to organize a spare bike there. Those nice cycling lanes around San Jose need filling and paying Avis king's ransom every time is just not worth it.
If Musk is actually promoting bike usage, one more cudos from me. One more thing the man is doing right. Applause.
I'm sure Tesla would love to have all of the rank and file rides their bikes to work. Big manufacturing plants have to space shifts apart to allow the parking lot to clear out before the next shift arrives or they'd have to have twice as big of a car park that just sits half empty most of the time. Get a whole bunch of the meat-robots to ride bikes and maybe they could do direct handoffs between shifts and keep the lines running all of the time. If they are only producing 2 Model 3's per hour, they need to use all of the hours of the day they can.
@unwarranted triumphalism
In your linked article, if you were to read it, Tesla motors is paying employees who cycle to the factory a little bonus. Nobody forces an employee to cycle to work, however, there is an incentive. This actually makes perfect economic sense if you think about the parking facilities needed were all employees to come in vehicles ... the savings thus generated are passed onto the cyclists, I guess that is fair.
I personally cycle my kids to school, mainly because I save time as I am never stuck in traffic that way and we have heavy traffic in the morning around here. My 5 yo now cycles the 2km on her own bicycle ... not sure what is criminal about cycling ... care to elaborate ? Can you ride a bike ?
I'm genuinely curious, since all the other manufacturers tried to destroy Tesla, then tried to BUY out Tesla, now they resort to petty internet sniping hoping to hurt their company value.
Sad and pathetic dying gasps from an industry that said electric cars weren't wanted by the public, but now follow on Tesla's footsteps as their previous selling models become unsustainable.
So many dinosaur car companies MASSIVELY MASSIVELY in debt for many many billions, cutting employee numbers and wages, yet still slagging off rivals.
I'm genuinely curious, since all the other manufacturers tried to destroy Tesla, then tried to BUY out Tesla, now they resort to petty internet sniping hoping to hurt their company value.
All the other manufacturers are still in the process of destroying Tesla. Including Tesla itself, via it's burn rate. Other manufacturers are ramping up production of their own EVs, and it's suppliers are helping. For example-
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-panasonic-results/panasonic-hikes-outlook-after-third-quarter-earnings-surge-on-automotive-demand-idUKKBN1FP0US
Aiming to reduce its dependence on Tesla, Panasonic recently partnered with Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) to develop and supply batteries for electric vehicles.
If Tesla aren't buying the output from Panasonic's 'Gigafactories', someone else will. And in other news, market jitters around wage inflation, and inflation in general will likely lead to rising interest rates and make it harder for Tesla to raise new capital via the bond markets. Or refinancing it's existing bonds will get more expensive.
All the other manufacturers are still in the process of destroying Tesla. Including Tesla itself, via it's burn rate. Other manufacturers are ramping up production of their own EVs, and it's suppliers are helping.
You don't seem to realise, that means Musk is winning. His stated goal wasn't to make as much money as he can, or even destroy the other manufacturers. He wanted to make electric cars mainstream because he wants to kick-start a sci-fi future and get us away from depending on fossil fuels. That's also why he makes solar panels and massive batteries, so we don't need to rely on coal-fired powerplants to fuel EVs. It's also why he open-sourced loads of Tesla patents, so that other companies can produce their own EVs and improve on the designs.
Ford and the rest of them trying to crush Tesla by making EVs is like threatening to throw Brer Rabbit into a briar patch.
You don't seem to realise, that means Musk is winning. His stated goal wasn't to make as much money as he can, or even destroy the other manufacturers. He wanted to make electric cars mainstream because he wants to kick-start a sci-fi future and get us away from depending on fossil fuels. That's also why he..
Incorporated Tesla as a non-profit? OK, so Musk didn't found Tesla, and he still has some way to go before the Model 3's sales catch up the Nissan Leaf. But if his goal wasn't to make money, he's on target with a $771m Q4 loss, declining margins and $9.5bn in debt. And only managed to produce 1,542 Model 3s, which is a long way from the promised 5,000 a week. And with 400,000 orders for those, customers will have to be patient. Or look at buying competing EVs from other manufacturer's who may not share Musk's view of the Model 3 being a 'premium EV'. And Tesla somehow needs to produce semis, trucks and it's new Roadster without massively increasing capex and wage bills.
And there'll be no getting away from fossil fuels because electricity is still going to be needed to charge EVs.
As I understand it, they've got a huge order book, but only take a grand or two deposit off people to go on it. So those numbers are more likely to be sales. I think it's a refundable deposit too, so it should show on their books as an asset of lots of cash, a liability of lots of deposits, and a small profit from whatever interest they earn on it.
Too many investors chasing possible higher returns in a very flat market, basically, and most of them are using other people's money - pension funds and the like.
The "irrational exuberance" of believing one man knows better than the entire enormous car industry floats on wodges of other people's cash.
'Anyone care to lend me a few millions to back that prediction?'
If I had it and you had his business plan and track record along with the major investors he already has onboard, I would consider it. He certainly isn't risking all his own wedge.
Personally, I wouldn't bet against him.