back to article Airbus warns it could quit A380 production

Airbus has reported its most prolific year to date in terms of deliveries, but also warned that it needs a new buyer of its flagship A380 if it is to continue production. Speaking at its annual “Orders and Deliveries” event yesterday, the plane-maker said it delivered 718 passenger craft last year, four more than its previous …

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  1. PhilipN Silver badge

    "no choice but to shut down the program"

    Poor choice of words which gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

    1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
      Unhappy

      Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

      Or allowing Airbus to play the "No, that's our final offer. Accept it or we walk away from any further production" move.

      The question of course is wheather or not Emirates believe they really would do that.

      I kind of think they might.

      1. tahafarooq

        Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

        Emirates can always play the "give us what we want or we shift everything to Boeing" card. The fact that Emirates Airline is the only one interested in the A380, proves that Airbus doesn't know how to sell its flagship product.

        1. Steve Todd

          Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

          No, they can’t. Firstly Boeing have discontinued the 747 and now don’t make anything remotely close to the capacity of the A380. Secondly retraining their pilots and maintenance staff to whatever they replace them with would be hugely expensive.

          Adding to that, Emirates is not the only customer, it’s just the largest.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

            747-8 remains in production in both passenger and freighter forms at the current time - which a cursory check would have shown you....

            1. anothercynic Silver badge

              Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

              The 747-8 in passenger configuration is down to 5 examples in the pipeline, and the only real options on the table are the VIP versions (i.e. Air Force One's two examples plus some... ahem... Middle Eastern customers). The freight version on the other hand *is* still available and there's a good backlog.

              1. imanidiot Silver badge

                Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                There is basically no demand for passenger 747's. Boeing will be happy to build you a batch if you order more than 5 or so at at time, or pay through the nose for a custom "private jet" version, but almost all of what is in the order book is freighter versions.

                I think Airbus just gambled and lost. There is little to no demand for A380 sized airliners and demand will never pick up. A350/Boeing 777 class twins are large enough and much more economic to operate for most airlines who struggle to even fill those.

                1. Alan Brown Silver badge

                  Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                  "There is little to no demand for A380 sized airliners and demand will never pick up."

                  There are specific niches for them, especially as most major airlines have retired 747s over the last 5 years. bear in mind that the market for large transports is so low that only ~1600 747s have ever been built (compare with a combined backlog of more than 12,000 aircraft on the 737+A320 lines)

                  Fuel prices have been amazingly low for the last decade and are showing signs of coming back up. I was expecting oil to snap through $200/barrel when the price wars finally stopped - that hasn't happened but it's likely to, at which point economy minded fliers will gravitate to the hub+spoke model and forgo the time savings.

                  1. Charles 9

                    Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                    "Fuel prices have been amazingly low for the last decade and are showing signs of coming back up. I was expecting oil to snap through $200/barrel when the price wars finally stopped"

                    That's because the price wars haven't really stopped, only paused as suppliers are keeping themselves in check. And don't forget the work into synthetic fuel production (being conducted by the US Navy, who always have a fuel issue).

                    1. Alan Brown Silver badge

                      Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                      "don't forget the work into synthetic fuel production"

                      I'm not. It's unlikely to end up costing less than $300/barrel simply because if it's not done with algae then it's competing with food production (eg, jatophra) and there's not enough space in the agricultural market for that to be more than niche production.

                      In the long term we're going to need a nuclear economy - preferably molten salt for safety (20 years to commercialise) until fusion is ready (I think 100-150 years to commercialise, realistically) - and if you have molten salt nuclear tech then you have the heat to run a haber process to crack water to H2 and enough energy to tack on carbon atoms for easy handling whilst you're at it (ie, carbon neutral kerosene).

                      Carbon emissions are already well past the 2C tipping point and we're on track for 4C - the real danger isn't sea level rises though. People can move. Ocean acidification blowing the food chains apart and/or an anoxic event dropping global atmospheric oxygen levels down to 12-15% is the real thing to worry about. Our hungry brains can't handle low oxygen levels and our cardiopulmonary system tends to clog up if exposed to prolonged low oxygen levels, as the primary human body response is to increase haemoglobin levels by thickening the blood - which makes it much harder to pump around.

                      When you look at it that way, the chinese government's crash program of investigating every alternative to carbon and building a shedload of PWR/CANDU nukes in the meantime makes sense - whatever they find that works will need to be made available to developing countries at low cost as they can more than make up the any reductions the developed countries may make. Human nature means that when the shit hits the fan it will already be too late to make reductions vs going cold turkey. If/when LFTRs are ready they can eat the PWR waste.

                      It'd be even better and things would proceed faster if everyone put aside their differences and concentrated on getting LFTR/MSRs out the door asap. Whilst they have some downsides they're not as big a set of downsides as PWR nuclear power and we can't afford to sit around procrastinating.

            2. Johnr

              Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

              Airbus made a BIG mistake

              Boeing looked at the market when Airbus was designing the A-380 and said ...NAH

              We don't think that the market is going this way . We'll stick with the 747 that people will buy it up as the price drops. People want Non stop twin aisles not great fat ugly buses.

              I had the misfortune to fly an Air France A380 from Paris to Miami . Friggin horror show even with the "premium" coach . A glorified cattle car guaranteed to cripple you within 4 hrs of the 10hr flight . The ingress and egress was akin to the aforementioned cattle car not to mention the three carousels of luggage to deal with the 500 hapless souls and their 2 bags per

              1. Sorry that handle is already taken. Silver badge

                Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                Boeing looked at the market when Airbus was designing the A-380 and said ...NAH

                My understanding is that it wasn't because the concept was flawed; it was that the market wasn't big enough for a second option.

                1. Alan Brown Silver badge

                  Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                  " it was that the market wasn't big enough for a second option."

                  Which is exactly the reason that the L1011 and DC10/11 failed and took the manufacturers with them.

                  The difference is that the A380 is a halo craft of a range being sold and the farm isn't being bet on it. Airbus can afford to keep it as a low volume item as its presence sells the smaller birds.

              2. Alan Brown Silver badge

                Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

                "I had the misfortune to fly an Air France A380 from Paris to Miami . "

                You mean you had the misfortune to fly Air France. BTDTGTTS - they're awful no matter which aircraft they may plonk you on.

            3. Alan Brown Silver badge

              Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

              "747-8 remains in production"

              But I think you'll find it difficult to place an order for any more to be added to the queue unless you buy a bunch of them and don't mind waiting 6 years.

          2. This post has been deleted by its author

        2. Adam 52 Silver badge

          Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

          Emirates need Airbus to continue production to ensure availability of replacement aircraft when their fleet ages. They just don't need that production capacity right now.

      2. anothercynic Silver badge

        Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

        Emirates has already asked Airbus to look at re-engining the A380 (i.e. new engines, better fuel economy and fuel efficiency), but Airbus ruled it out for the current moment because it's not too bad yet. It has been clear that a 'A380neo' is *not* off the table (i.e. if EngineAlliance and Rolls Royce are improving their engines significantly, they'll be interested in doing it.

        Airbus has also gotten into the refurbishment business, and the first Singapore A380s have gone in for a refresher.

        The A380 is not dead *yet*, but like the B747, it's on life support... ;-)

        1. Alan Brown Silver badge

          Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

          " the first Singapore A380s have gone in for a refresher."

          Bear in mind that the first few A380s off the assembly line were overweight due to the wiring hassles. They're more likely to end up as freighters than to return to revenue passenger service (which should result in them being a bit lighter)

        2. Lars Silver badge

          Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

          "Emirates has already asked Airbus to look at re-engining the A380".

          Airbus doesn't produce engines but use RR and the American brands all doing their best to improve them.

          1. SkippyBing

            Re: Poor choice of words..gives Emirates the opportunity to squeeze the hell out of Airbus.

            'I had the misfortune to fly an Air France A380 from Paris to Miami .'

            The last five words in that sentence are superfluous.

    2. Lars Silver badge
      Go

      Re: "no choice but to shut down the program"

      If you look at airbus.com you find this about the A380.

      Total orders 317, total deliveries 222. aircraft in operation 222. Apparently not quite dead yet, but a niche market looking at the numbers no doubt..

      Also:

      "As of 31 December, Airbus’ overall backlog of jetliners remaining to be delivered stood at 7,265 aircraft – a new industry record."

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    380b?

    Datsun had a 180b

    Maybe they just need a few more buyer options...

    1. Khaptain Silver badge

      Re: 380b?

      The Datsun 180b didn't requite you to remodel your garage, it therefore has an advantage over the A380... The A380 is far better looking than the Datsun though,

    2. Holtsmark Silver badge

      Re: 380b?

      What they need is an A380 NEO.

      The New Engine Option led to savings in fuel consumption that made the extra outlay for the A380 uneconomical.

      Getting ultra high bypass engines (maybe with geared fans) onto the A380 as well as the other aerodynamic refinements that made the NEO such a hit would make the A380 competitive again. The question is: Will it be sufficiently competitive to pay back the investment?

      I am convinced that they are crunching numbers in Toulouse and Hamburg.

      1. Voland's right hand Silver badge

        Re: 380b?

        What they need is an A380 NEO.

        Lost in the report is the culprit: 78 A350 WXBs

        This is what is eating the 380's lunch. Unless 380 is improved, the 350 will devour its bigger sibling (especially once the "ridiculously long range" 350 option BA and friends are negotiating for starts shipping).

        1. Michael Jennings

          Re: 380b?

          Just as the 777 in its various versions has pretty much devoured the 747s lunch. Four engined aircraft -

          even very big ones - aren't the way to go at this point.

        2. Charles 9

          Re: 380b?

          "This is what is eating the 380's lunch. Unless 380 is improved, the 350 will devour its bigger sibling (especially once the "ridiculously long range" 350 option BA and friends are negotiating for starts shipping)."

          Correct me if I'm wrong, but perhaps one of the biggest issues dogging the 380 is that you need special accommodations for it, not just in the runways but at the terminals, whereas B777's and A350's were built to fit within the B747 profile and therefore can fly in placed already built to accommodate 747's and so on without much additional outlay?

      2. MJI Silver badge

        Re: 380b?

        Nothing really wrong with Trent.

        Already pretty fuel eficient and I bet they are working on improvements.

        Do not need new airframe for a new version of existing engine.

    3. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

      Re: 380b?

      Datsun had a 180b

      Ahh, Datsun. Whatever happened to them? Borged/renamed?

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: 380b?

        Datsun still exists. It's a Nissan brand.

      2. choleric

        Re: 380b?

        Datsun -> Nissan. Basically. Branding for different international markets makes the story a bit more complicated.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: 380b?

          It was Datsun in the US - up through the 70's I believe - then rebranded as Nissan. I always wondered why they would rebrand a successful, favorably regarded name.

          1. Alan Brown Silver badge

            Re: 380b?

            Nissan rebadged the Datsuns for the same reason that Mitsubishi rebadged themselves from Colt in some markets - worldwide consistency in marketing.

            In both cases the "brands" that were being used were originally car model names that non-japanese distributors decided to use as brands for various reasons.

            Personally I preferred the Datsun Insult.

            1. Muscleguy

              Re: 380b?

              They were Datsuns in Australia and New Zealand too.

            2. Lars Silver badge
              Happy

              Re: 380b?

              "Nissan rebadged the Datsuns for the same reason that Mitsubishi rebadged themselves from Colt in some markets - worldwide consistency in marketing.".

              It was Datsun in Finland too, the first European country to import them (1962) also the first Toyotas came to Finland. I had a 1967 Toyota I bought as second hand, The joke then was "when will you get a real Yota".

              For the name change, why not use the Wiki. (trying and trying to teach you commentards).

              "Datsun is an automobile brand owned by Nissan. Datsun's original production run began in 1931. From 1958 to 1986, only vehicles exported by Nissan were identified as Datsun. By 1986 Nissan had phased out the Datsun name, but re-launched it in June 2013 as the brand for low-cost vehicles manufactured for emerging markets..........".

              Japanese cars came as a shock for car makers around the world, cheep, reliable no fuss cars. It took some time for European producers to recover. The Brits never did although I suppose there was other deep reasons too.

              1. Alan Brown Silver badge

                Re: 380b?

                "Datsun's original production run began in 1931. "

                The marketing story back in the 70s and 80s was that the original Nissan car was called the DAT (initials of the founders) and the next model was the "Son of DAT", aka Datson and they chose Datsun as looking stylistically better as well as alluding to the land of the rising sun. (which is also where the Sunny name is supposedly derived from)

                https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/HERITAGE/short_story/en_p05-01.html

      3. Lars Silver badge
        Happy

        Re: 380b?

        "Ahh, Datsun. Whatever happened to them? Borged/renamed?"

        Try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datsun

        1. Prst. V.Jeltz Silver badge

          Re: 380b?

          " but re-launched it in June 2013 as the brand for low-cost vehicles manufactured for emerging markets.........."."

          Datsun is back? fantastic!

          1. SkippyBing

            Re: 380b?

            'Correct me if I'm wrong, but perhaps one of the biggest issues dogging the 380 is that you need special accommodations for it, not just in the runways but at the terminals, whereas B777's and A350's were built to fit within the B747 profile and therefore can fly in placed already built to accommodate 747's and so on without much additional outlay?'

            Although oddly the latest B777 is going to have folding wingtips to fit in the existing footprint. I think with the A380 the main issue is the jetways to get passengers on and off. It's footprint isn't much more than a B747 but if you want to get people on and off before they die of old age you need upper and lower jetways which nothing else needs.

  3. Ben1892
    Coat

    single-engine A350 ...

    That's going a bit far with the fuel economy isn't it ?

    Yeah I know what you meant, I'm putting it on and already halfway out the door

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: single-engine A350 ...

      The person who needs their coat is the author. I know the Reg can't afford proof readers, or sub-editors, but that puts the onus on the hack to try and make it intelligible. I had to infer that some bloke called "Leahy" is probably AIrbus's COO because it isn't clear.

    2. Holtsmark Silver badge

      Re: single-engine A350 ...

      The professional term is ETOPS:

      Engine Turns Or Passengers Swim

      1. anothercynic Silver badge

        Re: single-engine A350 ...

        And the A350 has the highest ETOPS certification of *any* aircraft *ever*: 6 hours, 10 minutes (ETOPS-370). That's how good RR has made the Trent XWB (*I am not affiliated with Rolls Royce Aircraft Engines of Derby).

        1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

          Re: single-engine A350 ...

          So if Canada were to close a bunch of northern airstrips it only keeps open as emergency diverts - then only the A350 would be able to make a lot of Eu-USA flights and Boeings would have to do a long expensive southern route.

          Boeing has just screwed Canada over with a 50% duty on Bombardier and Airbus has just take Bombardier under its wing...

    3. kcblo

      Re: single-engine A350 ...

      It will never able to obtain an airworthy certificate to fly.

  4. Real Ale is Best
    Happy

    I've really liked the few times I've been on A380. They are quiet and spacious (at least in Economy on Emirates, Singapore and Malaysia), and have been the nicest flights I have been on.

    It's a shame the economics don't work for the airlines.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      I agree. I love them. I'm lucky enough to have only flown in business and first on them (not because that's where I usually sit, comrades) on Qatar and Malaysia. They are lovely and quiet, especially upstairs. The Qatar ones are spotless, with a separate bar if you're in the posh cabins. Malaysia's are in poor condition as they can't make the sums work. KL isn't a big destination and there is a lot of competition for those wanting to change planes in that part of the world. They only fly the A380 to Heathrow and often struggle to fill them - the price I got first class for when I used it last year was not a huge amount more than economy on some airlines. Even this isn't going to last long, as they're replacing them with the A350 on this route and are reconfiguring some of their A380s to all-economy with tightly-packed seats, to be used for the Hajj and not much else.

      The big downside with them, and a lot of the newer planes is the fact that they are so quiet. Without the droning of the engines like you get on the 747 for example, you hear everything so it's harder to sleep.

      They do make sense for a lot of routes, particularly those where you are going to have to change planes in the middle of nowhere, like the Middle East. But for most airlines if it's the choice of two A350s or two B787s per day on a route or one A380 they will prefer the former as it provides more choice and the potential for shorter connections. Airlines don't want people sitting around airports either.

      1. CrazyOldCatMan Silver badge

        Without the droning of the engines

        I like hearing the engine noise. It's a reassurance that the flightline isn't about to go subterranean..

      2. Alan Brown Silver badge

        "Malaysia's are in poor condition as they can't make the sums work"

        That has little to do with the aircraft and a lot to do with the airiline. MAS was struggling and in deep shit for long enough that MH370 (and a bunch of earlier critical safety incidents) happened _because_ of it, not the other way around.

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