back to article Another Brexit cliff edge: UK.gov warned over data flows to EU

The UK is risking a security and trade "cliff edge" if it doesn't secure an arrangement that allows data transfer with the European Union to continue after Brexit, a report has said. In its report Brexit: The EU data protection package, published today, the House of Lords EU Home Affairs Sub-Committee said that there was "no …

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  1. Dan 55 Silver badge
    Facepalm

    The committee is also concerned that the UK will lose its influence over the setting of those laws, and has urged the government to take steps to ensure it can still exert its influence.

    Given that it seems the UK negotiating team rocked up without any notes yesterday (see photo half-way down), I really doubt that's going to happen.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      If you're no longer a member of the club, or even if you signal the intention that you are quitting the club, it's hard to see how you can exert any influence on the rules set by the club.

      The whole thing is just a huge dog's breakfast of stupidity with no clear objectives, no plan, no implementation strategy and fundamentally no analysis of the costs/benefits, advantages/disadvantages. Somehow, we're meant to swallow the fiction that May/Johnson/Gove/Grayling/Davis/Fox are actually competent...

    2. Charlie Clark Silver badge

      Especially if the minister responsible only attends the meetings on a part time basis.

      1. Nick Kew

        @Charlie Clark

        "Especially if the minister responsible only attends the meetings on a part time basis."

        Sensible. Sir Humphrey will have to do the work anyway, and he doesn't want some idiot politician looking over his shoulder.

        1. Yes Me Silver badge

          Re: @Charlie Clark

          Sir Humphrey is in despair, but strongly suspects the whole nonsense will go away soon, along with Theresa May and her "friends".

    3. codejunky Silver badge

      @ Dan 55

      "Given that it seems the UK negotiating team rocked up without any notes yesterday (see photo half-way down), I really doubt that's going to happen."

      You do know that our position is to leave the EU? How many pieces of paper do you need that writing on to know that? The ball is now in the EU's court. They want access to this and that, ok its a trade negotiation and thats not a bad thing. But our position is to leave.

      If the EU decide to be petty and make outrageous demands then our side just need to laugh and walk out. That doesnt need any paper either. If the EU want a serious discussion then cool, our negotiators will likely need some paper when there is something worth writing down or figuring out. But right now it is up to the EU how they want to interact with us outside the EU.

      1. Flocke Kroes Silver badge

        Re: @ codejunky

        "But right now it is up to the EU how they want to interact with us outside the EU."

        So, let the rest of the EU write the withdrawl and future relationship agreement? The UK does not need to send any negotiators? The UK just has to sign whatever they come up with?

        Glad to see you have more faith in the EU than the UK government.

        1. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: @ codejunky

          @ Flocke Kroes

          "So, let the rest of the EU write the withdrawl and future relationship agreement?"

          Erm you do know what is going on dont you? We have said we are leaving. The UK for example said a reciprocal agreement for the others citizens and the EU took their time trying to figure out if they wanted that. We are pretty clear, but it is the EU who need to figure themselves out.

          "The UK does not need to send any negotiators? The UK just has to sign whatever they come up with?"

          The UK doesnt need to do anything until the EU has figured out their position. Hell they cant even start the negotiations right (and they want to do our trade deals!). Demand 60bn and we poke holes in their maths for tractors to roll through. So the EU says oops, erm, duhhhhhhhhhhhh, £100bn which is padded with crap we are not liable for so they can negotiate down to £60bn. It isnt our incompetence we need to worry about yet.

          1. Dan 55 Silver badge

            Re: @ codejunky

            What a strange back-to-front world it is where you are. The EU are publishing everything, it's all there on their website.

            In particular the EU's position on EU/British citizens living in UK/EU was published some two weeks before the UK's position.

            When the UK did publish their position, it was found not to be reciprocal (did not keep all rights that people who have used their EU treaty rights have, all rights were lost after two years if the EU citizen left the UK, no mention at all of cross-border workers).

            If the UK is leaving but doesn't know how to solve the Irish border problem (and now probably never will be able to because the government is hamstrung by the DUP), doesn't know what kind of access to single market and customs union it wants, and is proposing residency rules for EU citizens that can break up their families, it's upon the UK to come up with some solutions. One year after the referendum vote with no answers to any of these questions is shocking incompetence.

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: @ codejunky

              @ Dan 55

              "In particular the EU's position on EU/British citizens living in UK/EU was published some two weeks before the UK's position."

              And why there were so many calls for the UK to unilaterally grant the rights because the EU wouldnt play ball. Erm.

              "When the UK did publish their position, it was found not to be reciprocal "

              Not the current arrangement yup. I expect you mean this- https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2017/07/12/guy-verhofstadt-continues-to-whistle-over-eu-citizens-rights-post-brexit/#5573d3092bfb

              "If the UK is leaving but doesn't know how to solve the Irish border problem"

              Do we consider it our problem? If so to what extent do we care and we only need care as far as our end of the border. Just as the other side is for the EU to ponder.

              "doesn't know what kind of access to single market and customs union it wants"

              Erm yeah, hard brexit (how is this difficult?). If the EU is willing to do a trade deal cool, if not so what.

              "and is proposing residency rules for EU citizens that can break up their families"

              Wow the smell of bull

              "it's upon the UK to come up with some solutions"

              Eh? I thought the remoaning position was that the EU was all powerful and we were irrelevant. Now you say we have all the power and should be telling the EU how to do things? The point of leaving is that they aint telling us and we aint telling them how to do things. We are leaving, leaving, leaving (repeat until it sinks in), leaving. It is up to the EU what they want to negotiate, then we can talk. We just wanna leave and that involves..... us leaving.

              "One year after the referendum vote with no answers to any of these questions is shocking incompetence."

              We might not agree who's incompetence but I will agree with that line.

              1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                Re: @ codejunky

                Good old Tim W quoting BoJo the Clown to back him up. You could have picked any other article but that one.

                There will always be a need for 3rd party arbitration between two countries, this existed before the UK's membership of the EC/EU and saying now that Brexit means the UK is a law unto itself and doesn't recognise 3rd party arbitration is absurd and unworkable and throws our relationships with other countries into doubt.

                "and is proposing residency rules for EU citizens that can break up their families"

                Wow the smell of bull

                No. Family reunion rights were dropped by Maybot in 2012 and full rights will only be granted after 5 years residency.

                There are families in the UK which have some British citizens and some EU citizens. Under the proposal, EU citizens must earn more than a certain an income level and if they leave for two years (e.g. university in another EU country) they have to start to build up rights again.

                If some EU citizens were to try to obtain citizenship, they may lose their other nationality (e.g. Dutch).

                More or less same problem is faced by British citizens in the EU. For those that cannot use family reunion rights, they may have to take up citizenship. Some countries want you to renounce your foreign citizenship if you take up theirs, meaning they lose right to residency in the UK.

                We just wanna leave and that involves..... us leaving.

                Polls seem to be throwing that whole "we just wanna leave" thing into doubt, but anyway.

                If we do cry and take our ball home without negotiating then we will end up economically fucked. Imports and exports require cooperation. Flights require cooperation. Data protection requires cooperation. If we make no attempt to negotiate or cooperate then we can't complain when the country is royally screwed.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: @ codejunky

                  @ Dan 55

                  "Brexit means the UK is a law unto itself and doesn't recognise 3rd party arbitration is absurd and unworkable and throws our relationships with other countries into doubt."

                  Thats cute but not what it is about. However that comment about 3rd party arbitration is actually why the EU trade deal with Japan (that they claim is done) isnt done. The EU rejects it while Japan demands the standard. But in this case the US do not overrule our court, nor Saudi Arabia or anywhere else. So no to the EU.

                  "If some EU citizens were to try to obtain citizenship, they may lose their other nationality (e.g. Dutch)."

                  Why? Is this a dictatorial thing from the UK? No? Who is it then?

                  "Some countries want you to renounce your foreign citizenship if you take up theirs, meaning they lose right to residency in the UK."

                  Ahhh we have an answer!

                  "Polls seem to be throwing that whole "we just wanna leave" thing into doubt, but anyway."

                  As they did before the vote, as they did after the vote, as they conflict with the.... RESULT of the rigged vote that still didnt return the predetermined answer. Thanks for playing.

                  "If we do cry and take our ball home without negotiating then we will end up economically fucked."

                  So much bull maybe it could be an export.

                  "Imports and exports require cooperation."

                  Yes. And that is why the world is lining up and hopefully the EU will be cooperative. But if they stick with the idiot suggestions of punishing us then they are not are they?

                  "If we make no attempt to negotiate or cooperate then we can't complain when the country is royally screwed."

                  Last I checked we had negotiators in a room with theirs. We now await the EU to make their opening offer (v2 with revised figures massively up after their initial colossal failure) which we will likely see to be about as cooperative as the garbage they have spewed so far.

                  1. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: @ codejunky

                    "Yes. And that is why the world is lining up and hopefully the EU will be cooperative. "

                    Wow, the level of arrogance, even stupidity is mind blowing.

                2. Anonymous Coward
                  Anonymous Coward

                  Re: @ codejunky

                  Some countries want you to renounce your foreign citizenship if you take up theirs, meaning they lose right to residency in the UK.

                  You can't renounce British citizenship if you have it through right of birth. No matter what you might say to a foreign government to gain the right to live there you remain British with all the associated rights.

                  1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                    Re: @ codejunky

                    Wrong, you fill in form RN (Application to renounce British citizenship) from the Home Office.

                    If the other country is serious about it, they will want to see the reply confirming that you have renounced your British citizenship.

                    1. Anonymous Coward
                      Anonymous Coward

                      Re: @ codejunky

                      Wrong, you fill in form RN (Application to renounce British citizenship)

                      If you read the notes to that form you will find "A person who renounces British citizenship or British overseas territories citizenship has a right (once only) to resume that citizenship if the renunciation was necessary to enable him or her to keep or obtain some other citizenship."

                      In other words it's a fudge to allow you to seem to have given it up, but you can still get it back just by asking, i.e. you haven't actually lost the right at all.

                      1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                        Re: @ codejunky

                        You can't get it back just by asking, there are conditions attached - read the guidance notes for form RS1. Would you really want to plan your future on the whims of a Home Office civil servant?

              2. Yes Me Silver badge

                Re: @ codejunky

                I thought the remoaning position was that the EU was all powerful and we were irrelevant. Now you say we have all the power and should be telling the EU how to do things? That's not what he said or implied. They have 27 potential vetos, so yes, they are in fact all-powerful in the talks: it is their deal or no deal. But by being modest and realistic in the talks (highly unlikely with Davis in charge) we have a chance of getting a deal that might get through the Commons. If we don't, of course, the government will be thrown out (if it even survives that long) and I'm pretty sure that the 27 will then agree to putting Article 50 on hold until a sensible (centrist) government comes along. It would be better to withdraw the Article 50 letter straight away though; that isn't exactly foreseen by the Treaty but the right things would probably happen.

                1. Anonymous Coward
                  Anonymous Coward

                  Re: @ codejunky

                  I'm pretty sure that the 27 will then agree to putting Article 50 on hold

                  Of course they will, they're desperately afraid that Brexit might be successful.

                2. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: @ codejunky

                  @ Yes Me

                  "That's not what he said or implied"

                  Yes it is. He said- "it's upon the UK to come up with some solutions" and so he thinks we have to come up with the EU's problems.

                  "it is their deal or no deal"

                  Actually it is for both to decide either to deal or not. That is why the EU keep getting laughed out of the room when they want to overrule our justice system or charge us a stupidly unfounded bill.

          2. Lars Silver badge
            Happy

            Re: @ codejunky

            "It isnt our incompetence we need to worry about yet.". So true, stupid will need to worry about nothing as it's always too late anyway.

            Dear Brits why do you accept this stupidity for absolutely no good reasons.

            Shitting here wondering what the hell made the year 2016 the "year of the talking arseholes". You Brits look at the USA and laugh at the Twat. We Europeans laugh at both the Twat and Brexit. It's not a nice laugh, not the kind a guy like Wodehouse produced, but rather the kind of laughter you can, or cannot, master when a guy steps into a heap of dog shit, turns angrily around accusing his wife of not warning him.

            Not a nice laughter, but also a laughter without any meanness.

      2. Anonymous Coward
        Facepalm

        Re: @ Dan 55

        If the EU decide to be petty and make outrageous demands then our side just need to laugh and walk out.

        The EU represents 44% of the UK's current export market, and at the UK represents 16% of the EU's "export" market. So who do you think loses the most if the UK delegation walks out?

        And whilst we are on the subject, what are you going to live on for the decade or two that it will take the UK to replace nearly half of its export market with markets outside Europe. Markets for which many UK products and services are not designed, and which in any case are already saturated with foreign competitors who already have market share that the UK would need to displace.

        1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

          Re: @ Dan 55

          The EU represents 44% of the UK's current export market, and at the UK represents 16% of the EU's "export" market. So who do you think loses the most if the UK delegation walks out?

          You can't compare percentages like that, the EU is a tad bigger than the UK.

          UK exports to EU, 44% of £550bn = £240bn

          EU exports to UK, 16% of £1800bn = £290bn

          so to answer your question, the EU loses more.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Happy

            Re: @ Dan 55

            You can't compare percentages like that, the EU is a tad bigger than the UK.

            UK exports to EU, 44% of £550bn = £240bn

            EU exports to UK, 16% of £1800bn = £290bn

            so to answer your question, the EU loses more.

            But the effect is far less significant to the EU than the UK because the EU is substantially larger. e.g. the UK loses about £4000 per head of its 60m population in export earnings, whilst the EU only loses about £640 per head of its 450m population (540m less the 60m British). So I'll take a £640 pay cut if you take a £4000 one...

            1. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

              Re: @ Dan 55

              So I'll take a £640 pay cut if you take a £4000 one...

              If that's the price of leaving the EU, I'll take it.

        2. codejunky Silver badge

          Re: @ Dan 55

          @ Smooth Newt

          "The EU represents 44% of the UK's current export market, and at the UK represents 16% of the EU's "export" market. So who do you think loses the most if the UK delegation walks out?"

          Both in different areas. Which is why the EU need to decide on their position and then there will be something to negotiate. No hostility or mocking in it, just the situation as it is.

          "And whilst we are on the subject, what are you going to live on for the decade or two that it will take the UK to replace nearly half of its export market with markets outside Europe."

          Its almost like we will be a pariah in the world. Nobody will want to trade with us. Oh no. Erm wait. We might even end up with a trade deal with China before the EU get one! And if we are so over-reliant on such a failing and barely still standing trading block then we obviously need to move away dont we.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Happy

            Re: @ Dan 55

            Nobody will want to trade with us. Oh no. Erm wait. We might even end up with a trade deal with China before the EU get one!

            I cannot see hundreds of British companies just rocking up to China on 30 March 2019 and opening hundreds of widget shops or whatever which instantly displaces most of the existing competition selling widgets, and who may have spent decades building up their market share.

            How long do you think it takes to build up significant market share from zero in the face of existing competition and a mature market for your product, because in most cases that is what they will face?

            1. codejunky Silver badge

              Re: @ Dan 55

              @ Smooth Newt

              "I cannot see hundreds of British companies just rocking up to China on 30 March 2019 and opening hundreds of widget shops or whatever which instantly displaces most of the existing competition selling widgets, and who may have spent decades building up their market share."

              I think I am seeing the problem with your view of trade.

              "How long do you think it takes to build up significant market share from zero in the face of existing competition and a mature market for your product, because in most cases that is what they will face?"

              Yup. Definitely seeing the error of your ways. I am not even sure where to start if your world view is that far wrong.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Meh

                Re: @ Dan 55

                Yup. Definitely seeing the error of your ways. I am not even sure where to start if your world view is that far wrong.

                Perhaps the Chinese will just buy various additional goods and services from us instead of whoever they are currently buying these things from, because We're British Dammit. Or perhaps because they like paying more for them, what with China having so much lower labour costs. Plus, unless you are already selling into China, your business's sales force etc won't speak Chinese, won't understand the Chinese market, and your company's products won't be designed for it or conform to their regulations.

                The economic consequences of Brexit might be relatively painless if it was spread over a generation or so, but not if we have just 618 days, 6 hours and 46 minutes.

              2. Triggerfish

                Re: @ Dan 55

                Yup. Definitely seeing the error of your ways. I am not even sure where to start if your world view is that far wrong.

                So some kit you have to get approved, electronic kit for example, so you have to go through the rigmarole of negotiating the Chinese Bureaucracy, everything will be done in Chinese, all a paperwork etc, you better not just understand Chinese, you better understand "The Chinese" you have to establish a presence and China is huge Shanghai has somewhere like 70m people alone, so that can be a problem, you better worry about IP issues, you are in competition with a major manufacturing country, your products might be priced out of the market depending on what they are. Lots of businesses have rocked up to China and tried to just start selling shit, most fall on their arse doing so.

                1. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: @ Dan 55

                  @ Triggerfish

                  Oh god your right! That is nobody trades with each other unless they are in a block. Oh how do Iceland trade with China? They must have special powers beyond our imagination! Its a wonder we can trade with the many languages in the EU. Good job the US doesnt trade with the EU (yes they do). And that nobody trades with anyone of any other language, culture or economy!

                  Instead I guess we all live in a tiny bubble afraid of the world and hating those foreigners. We must be strong and form a new superstate to compete with the likes of the US and the USSR. We must protect our industries from those poor countries with starving people so we can keep people employed in inefficient industry.

                  No thanks. I voted leave.

                  1. Dan 55 Silver badge
                    Happy

                    Re: @ codejunky

                    Instead I guess we all live in a tiny bubble afraid of the world and hating those foreigners.

                    I take it you're talking about the Brexiteer vote, the ones still hanging on believing in spite of all the evidence for it being a national tragedy enacted by an incompetent government?

                    Any half-way competent government would have taken Brexit to mean a move to the EEA and once in the EEA tried to push for a two-speed Europe.

                    1. Triggerfish

                      Re: @ codejunky

                      @ Dan

                      Apologies hit down vote when I meant to hit the upvote.

                    2. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: @ codejunky

                      @ Dan 55

                      "I take it you're talking about the Brexiteer vote"

                      You may want to read again. And if you come to the same conclusion read again and maybe get someone to read it with you and explain. The fact that you cant understand such an easy comment is probably why you think there is all this evidence of a national tragedy (I wont defend the gov ofc).

                      "Any half-way competent government would have taken Brexit to mean a move to the EEA and once in the EEA tried to push for a two-speed Europe."

                      Wasnt the warning that leaving the EU even for the EEA would remove our influence? So is this another one of those fantasies of somehow reforming the EU against all evidence of their will to do so? I was amazed how so many remain arguments centred on the political union being incompetent, incapable, awful, unworkable and headed for disaster but we should remain to try and fix it. I guess its a possible masochist enjoyment but outside of that it seems a pointless exercise.

                      The good news I can give you is you are so wrong that even if everything went tits up it is very unlikely to be as bad as you think things will be.

                    3. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

                      Re: @ codejunky

                      a move to the EEA and once in the EEA tried to push for a two-speed Europe

                      You're confusing EEA and EFTA. The UK is already a member of the EEA, because EU members are required to apply to become EEA members, but EEA rules are unclear on whether leaving the EU would neccessarily mean leaving the EEA. It seems they didn't consider that when drawing up the EEA agreement. The current argument is whether the UK could join EFTA after leaving the EU, at least one EFTA member (Norway) isn't keen due to the change in the balance of power which would result.

                  2. Triggerfish

                    Re: @ Dan 55

                    @Codejunky

                    Listen it's quite simple, you do not turn up to a country and just start selling. It takes time.

                    You may disagree with this and say we do not know trade, but I can tell you most of the comments about China you have disagreed with actually stand and reflect comments I hear from government advisors and people in chambers of commerce who actually do operate, trade and work out there.

                    Don't know how much experience you have with dealing with Asia but if you think you just toodle up and a week later you are selling things you are so wrong. It could take you a fair few months just to establish a representative office in any country. Combine that with how things may be done differently in Asia as well and it can get tricky especially if you are so Britain centric you think that's the way things will be done everywhere.

                    I'll agree you do not need a voting block any company can try it independently in fact many business do just that, and I will say again many fall on their arse because they do not pay attention to all the detail and problems they will face.

                    There seems to be the idea because we voted Brexit and are now a proud nation that everything will fall in line, people will try and give us beneficial trade deals that may hurt them but that's how it works right? Cos Britain is actually Great Britain. Personally I voted remain because I think that attitude is rubbish and naive.

                    There's a lot of "you do not understand international trade argument" your giving here, yet no real depth in the counter argument. So if you do think you can just rock up to China and start selling stuff within a matter of say a couple of weeks please tell me how?

                    1. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: @ Dan 55

                      @ Triggerfish

                      About your vote for dan, if you hit the upvote it will change your vote.

                      "Don't know how much experience you have with dealing with Asia but if you think you just toodle up and a week later you are selling things you are so wrong"

                      The problem is I havnt said this. Yet all I hear is defeatist rejection of interacting with the world because it might require work. The fact that there is a line of countries wanting trade deals with us already shows there is desire to trade with us in ways impossible as part of the cartel.

                      "many fall on their arse"

                      Interestingly this is the argument for the private sector. Most do fail in any market. But by trying there are successes.

                      "because we voted Brexit and are now a proud nation that everything will fall in line"

                      No.

                      "people will try and give us beneficial trade deals that may hurt them but that's how it works right"

                      What delusional rubbish have you been told or are you making this up to argue against? I have never heard anything this mad.

                      "Cos Britain is actually Great Britain."

                      I love this. Remain argument against 'Little England', the response is 'Great Britain' and when we vote leave suddenly Osborne and such started talking about Great Britain and not Little England. It is so funny to watch people so catastrophically wrong shamelessly change their attitude like true hypocrites. Similar problems with the eurosceptic / pro-euro when we were shown right no matter how loud the others cried out.

                      "Personally I voted remain because I think that attitude is rubbish and naive."

                      Thats fine, I can respect that view. But voting the other because some people on one side seem misinformed would have left us with nobody voting. I truly expect those views of leavers you have claimed are made up or from some fringe loony drunk who would normally be shouting about the coming of christ.

                      "So if you do think you can just rock up to China and start selling stuff within a matter of say a couple of weeks please tell me how?"

                      This is a problem. I dont just say that. Remove the straw man and you see your arguing against arguments you have presented. I point out pretty solidly that the claim we would be global pariahs and such fell at the first hurdle, we have a line for trade deals. We can be signing them the minute after getting out of the EU. Trade with members of the EU wont just stop that minute either, hell if the EU stops mucking about they might even be able to negotiate a trade deal although I do side with remainers that the 27 countries are not necessarily competent or adult enough to do such a thing.

                      We are at the front of the queue for a US trade deal. That doesnt mean start negotiating after we leave. That means our gov aught to be sorting it out and having the pen ready the minute we leave the EU. Same with China, Australia, New Zealand, etc. And our policies on trade and law will also matter. The fact that we are making serious roads to recovery from the recession almost a decade ago since the brexit vote means we might be in a better position before the next one hits. The EU still isnt and if we are tied to them they can drag us down.

                      I dont claim an easy life due to voting leave. I believe it is the best decision to make for a number of reasons and yet I get the same remain arguments (read dan) arguing against their own straw men and misrepresentations. In my book that is talking to ones self.

                      1. Triggerfish

                        Re: @ Dan 55

                        @ Codejunky

                        Cheers for that tip about voting

                        I would say people here have said companies are not going to be just turning up and starting trading immediately and you have been pretty dismissive of the idea that's not possible. I'd refer to your comments to smooth newt several comments back which I quoted from.

                        "I cannot see hundreds of British companies just rocking up to China on 30 March 2019 and opening hundreds of widget shops or whatever which instantly displaces most of the existing competition selling widgets, and who may have spent decades building up their market share."

                        I think I am seeing the problem with your view of trade.

                        "How long do you think it takes to build up significant market share from zero in the face of existing competition and a mature market for your product, because in most cases that is what they will face?"

                        Yup. Definitely seeing the error of your ways. I am not even sure where to start if your world view is that far wrong.

                        Likewise your response to me when I said it's not a simple process was to go on about Iceland, like I had said trade would not happen without a voting block, when did I ever say that?

                        This seems to be twisting my argument, and your argument and now being an accusation that I have created a straw man, whereas I feel there's some obfuscation in your response now to change it to a new argument itself.

                        I have not said it's impossible, I have said it's tricky will not happen quickly and it's a big risk takes time and investment for a lot of companies, especially if they have no idea how to approach it and it won't be a quick process. Smaller companies especially. Many are going to fail hard, if they lose trade from Europe and have to replace that with China then they may fail even harder.

                        Also as far as I understand trade deals mainly sort out taxes and tariffs etc, a company that has to make up it's trade short fall has to actually go and do it themselves, the government will help a bit, but those companies for the large part are on their own and have to figure it out themselves, or pay someone to figure it out for them.

                        the comments

                        "because we voted Brexit and are now a proud nation that everything will fall in line"

                        Seems to be an attitude amongst a lot of Brexiters, and some of the attitude our current gov seems to be taking to the table.

                        "people will try and give us beneficial trade deals that may hurt them but that's how it works right"

                        OK that was hyperbole based on the prev statement. :)

                        As for loony fringe, some of the example i have been given for voting Brexit

                        "I don't like David Cameron"

                        "You don't understand what it was like in the 70s we should go back to that"

                        "You do not understand manufacturing, this will be a great boost, doesn't matter if the pounds weakened people will buy more from us"

                        "I voted Brexit, just to see what would happen, but I thought it wouldn't go through"

                        "We need to secure our borders against people like the Syrians"

                        None of these struck me as irrational people, but their arguments for Brexit ... fuck me.

                        1. codejunky Silver badge

                          Re: @ Dan 55

                          @ Triggerfish

                          "I would say people here have said companies are not going to be just turning up and starting trading immediately and you have been pretty dismissive of the idea that's not possible."

                          Not at all. Originally I said we can walk out when the EU make outrageous demands (they have) and newt seemed to argue the EU has us over a barrel in trade. I said the EU need to figure out their position and then we can negotiate. I dismissed his comment on the basis that we are not some pariah in the world and amusingly we might end up with a trade deal with China before the EU manages it. The last line of my comment being the important one- "And if we are so over-reliant on such a failing and barely still standing trading block then we obviously need to move away dont we.". Since then I have been responding to interpretations of my comment.

                          "Likewise your response to me when I said it's not a simple"

                          But this is where I am chasing interpretations. I am talking about world trade and your talking about speaking Chinese. My point is we dont need a trade block to negotiate in the world nor the trade-off that is the EU. You can tell me its not simple and I agree. But it doesnt change anything.

                          "Seems to be an attitude amongst a lot of Brexiters, and some of the attitude our current gov seems to be taking to the table."

                          Some nutters maybe and I dont like the attitude of the gov. I do hope they are putting it on for the public like the EU members but I find it childish.

                          "some of the example i have been given for voting Brexit"

                          The Cameron one doesnt surprise me but it is irritating. That tribal politics rubbish causes more harm than good. Just as bad as the 'I didnt think it would happen' argument.

                          I dont understand any argument to go back to the 70's as it is the EU that is designed on that era and leaving would be very different. I hear it from remainers trying to mock leave voters so I point out this amusement often.

                          The manufacturing argument is actually pretty sane. Before the referendum the Sterling was considered overvalued and needing to fall. Then the brexit referendum was announced and suddenly it was a bad thing. As far as I am aware it has been a boost.

                          The borders thing isnt a daft one since border control was dismantled around the time of letting in Europe. Even labour admitted its failure here and while a good job we are out of the Schengen area, as Europe is finding, we still have increased threats to the country. I can understand why people doubt the capability of managing the borders while they are intentionally ruined and I have to agree with them.

                          1. Triggerfish

                            Re: @ Dan 55

                            @Codejunky

                            I dismissed his comment on the basis that we are not some pariah in the world and amusingly we might end up with a trade deal with China before the EU manages it. The last line of my comment being the important one- "And if we are so over-reliant on such a failing and barely still standing trading block then we obviously need to move away dont we.". Since then I have been responding to interpretations of my comment.

                            So you was being dimissive of the idea that just turning up in say China and selling widgets is not going to happen straight away.

                            But this is where I am chasing interpretations. I am talking about world trade and your talking about speaking Chinese. My point is we dont need a trade block to negotiate in the world nor the trade-off that is the EU. You can tell me its not simple and I agree. But it doesnt change anything.

                            As I said we I agree we do not need a trade block, I never brought that up in our coversation at all though you did. In fact I have pretty much reffered to companies themselves as seperate business entities. Trade deals sort tariffs, companies will have to do the rest themselves.

                            I was not just talking about speaking Chinese, I was pointing out that in response to what was a dismissive comment about smooth newt saying you cannot just turn up in China, To say that it's actually quite a complex processess in any country, I was using China as an example because thats was where the conversation was.

                            The point is, during the period when a company who now may have lost trade in Europe have to start looking at expanding into other regional markets is that there is a lead time, it's not short, it can be fraught with difficulties and it can be bloody trciky to do so, especially outside the EU market. A company that is suffering from a profit loss is going to have to weather a couple of years of investment, risk taking and reduced cash flow whilst still surviving long enough to actually hopefully break into that region, thats going to break a hell of a lot of companies, and saying well the other trading block was a bit shit so that's all good then is not really good sense to me.

                            I would disagree on the manufacturing arguement though, with a reduced pound the price of materials to manufacture goes up, so increasing the BOM, that cost has to be absorbed somewhere.

                            The border thing is tricky, but I think us throwing our cards out of the game, does not help us, working within and trying to change it might have, for a start we also lose a lot if we take away free movement, there's reasons the NHS wanted an exemption from the fallout. Likewise there are plenty of brits in the EU who are going to suffer. Also by dropping it we could lose the trade rights which I guess takes us back to the top again. :)

                            1. codejunky Silver badge

                              Re: @ Dan 55

                              @ Triggerfish

                              "So you was being dimissive of the idea that just turning up in say China and selling widgets is not going to happen straight away."

                              No

                              "Trade deals sort tariffs, companies will have to do the rest themselves."

                              Agreed. That is why I am pretty dismissive of the power and influence of the EU and their daft demands.

                              "To say that it's actually quite a complex processess in any country, I was using China as an example because thats was where the conversation was."

                              Thats fine. But still it doesnt change the situation. We are not overnight stop trading with the EU nor be some pariah in the world where we cant trade with them either.

                              "start looking at expanding into other regional markets is that there is a lead time, it's not short"

                              Yup. And businesses that are so EU centric they are useless outside of it will likely retreat within its borders assuming they can survive there. The rest will do some kind of mix of moving to the EU or possibly setting up an office there to get around the EU's threats (like the banks have done). Adaptation takes time but the remain argument seemed to forget that until it was convenient.

                              "I would disagree on the manufacturing arguement though, with a reduced pound the price of materials to manufacture goes up, so increasing the BOM, that cost has to be absorbed somewhere."

                              While we are in the EU yes. But then instead of importing it brings opportunities to manufacture here

                              (this is the time lag we discussed in this comment). It makes exports cheaper. A good example is to look at the currency manipulation of Greece and Germany. Same currency but it is too strong for Greece and too weak for Germany. The proof is in what would happen should they leave the euro and stand by themselves. Greece would devalue and quick, but just as quick Germany would have a much stronger currency

                              "working within and trying to change it might have"

                              The EU had no interest in that. France was very happy to support illegal migration in their attempt to get here. Germany caused a migration issue into Germany affecting some EU countries and then made it an EU problem.

                              "for a start we also lose a lot if we take away free movement"

                              Not at all. Labour already admitted their failure on this and it was a serious miscalculation. We interestingly get a lot of non-EU people coming into our NHS. Why would we ban useful people from the world and why would we give special treatment to the EU?

                              "Likewise there are plenty of brits in the EU who are going to suffer"

                              That shows how friendly the EU is if they do that. How is appeasing the EU a good thing in this case?

                              "Also by dropping it we could lose the trade rights which I guess takes us back to the top again. :)"

                              It is nice to talk to someone who also sees humour in this. I do enjoy reading your posts on the reg

                              1. Triggerfish

                                Re: @ Dan 55

                                @Codejunky

                                I do enjoy reading your posts on the reg

                                Likewise, but it's bedtime over here, and I fear we are taking over the board so gonna have to say g'night. :)

                          2. Dan 55 Silver badge

                            Re: @ codejunky

                            Experts say a no-deal Brexit would spawn 'legal morass and economic disaster', but hey, people have had enough of experts.

                            And, by the look of it, exports.

                            1. codejunky Silver badge

                              Re: @ codejunky

                              @ Dan 55

                              "Experts say a no-deal Brexit would spawn 'legal morass and economic disaster', but hey, people have had enough of experts."

                              Which experts? Carney provided a damning report of doom and gloom. Except his predecessor King pointed out that he was misrepresenting good news, the report was of all the things the gov and BoE had been trying to do for almost a decade to recover from the recession. Since the expert comment was from Gove (a politician) I guess you will stand by Camerons comments that we will be fine outside the EU, backed by Osborne. That is before the referendum and they did a swift 180.

                              If I remember correctly we had to join the Euro or become some pariah whos trade would be down the pan. **roll on tumble-weed**

                              1. Dan 55 Silver badge

                                Re: @ codejunky

                                Liam Fox has said this morning the UK can survive if there's no deal. Perhaps that should have gone on the big red bus instead.

                                If a politician, whose job it is to talk up whatever point is making, says it's a matter of survival then whichever way you look at it this is a shit sandwich.

                                1. codejunky Silver badge

                                  Re: @ codejunky

                                  @ Dan 55

                                  Wow. So in your world the translation is-

                                  Go well- Doom

                                  No problem- Doom

                                  Be ok- Doom

                                  Survive- Doom

                                  Doom- All ok?

                                  No wonder you have such a bleak outlook if you interpret everything in negatives.

                                2. Uncle Slacky Silver badge
                                  Facepalm

                                  Re: @ codejunky

                                  Reminds me of that quote from one of the Matrix sequels: "There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept."

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: @ Dan 55

            The delusion of Brexiters is staggering. I think I'll organise a conference of psychiatrists just on this topic.

          3. strum

            Re: @ Dan 55

            > We might even end up with a trade deal with China before the EU get one!

            Only if we're prepared to concede more to the Chinese than the EU is prepared to.

            That's the thing with sovereignty fantasists - they don't realise that every international treaty is a loss of sovereignty, in which the lesser power loses more than the greater power.

      3. strum

        Re: @ Dan 55

        >The ball is now in the EU's court.

        The delusion with this one is strong.

        The EU have laid out their position, unambiguously and in detail. The UK hasn't demonstrated that it has a clue.

        There are a thousand and one issues on which the EU's position needs no review - they simply continue as they are. Every one of them needs re-thinking by UK - with no evidence that the UK has even started adding them up.

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