back to article Electric driverless cars could make petrol and diesel motors 'socially unacceptable'

Connected vehicle folk ought to spend less time worrying about the trolley problem and more time concentrating on connected tech instead, Transport for London's Michael Hurwitz told the FISITA Plus mobility engineering conference this morning. "We spend a lot of time thinking whether the car should take out the child, or the …

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    1. Swarthy
      Stop

      Re: Trolley problem.

      Probably by using regenerative breaking & electric motors in the wheels. That way the brakes can't really fail (the brakes and the motors are the same thing - if it can't brake, it also can't accelerate) especially if you put in a redundant (you could call it an "emergency") brake.

    2. Tom 7

      Re: Trolley problem.

      While the trolley problem is an interesting distraction I think it might be possible to produce systems where the trolley problem is very unlikely to occur. Unlikely to the point of being largely irrelevant. If we have an electric CAV fleet driving around London saving many thousands of lives a year who dies when one of the vehicles quantum-tunnels onto a disused railway line is another address space all together.

      1. CheesyTheClown

        Re: Trolley problem.

        Consider connected autonomous vehicles.

        Either special utility vehicles or nearby delivery vehicles or worst case, nearby consumer vehicles can be algorithmicqlly redirected to a runaway vehicle, match speeds and forcefully decelerate the out of control vehicle.

        This would be wildly dangerous with human drivers, especially if they are not properly trained for such maneuvers. But by employing computer controlled cars, it could be possible to achieve this 99 out of 100 times with little more than paint damage.

        This doesn't solve a kids chasing a ball into the street without looking, but it can mitigate many issues related to systems failures.

        I can already picture sitting in a taxi and hearing. "Please brace yourself, this vehicle has been commandeered for an EV collision avoidance operation. Your insurance company has been notified that the owner of the vehicle in need will cover the cost of any collision damage to this vehicle. Time to impact, 21.4 seconds. Have a nice day"

      2. nijam Silver badge

        Re: Trolley problem.

        > ...driving around London saving many thousands of lives a year

        Good grief, how many people actually die on London's roads?

        1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: Trolley problem.

          "Good grief, how many people actually die on London's roads?"

          It's about 3k for the whole country so, yes, if you think the OP might have been exaggerating you may be right. OTOH he may have been counting algorithmically induced near misses as lives saved.

  2. Commswonk

    Bollocks...

    Over a working life of just over 40 years I must have driven somewhere north of 900,000 miles, with long distance commutes and carriage of "stuff" often in the mix. Many others will have driven a lot further. In all that time I heard all about congestion; now the modern concern is "pollution" and air quality. Either way the root cause is the same; lots of vehicles.

    However, in all that time nobody ever asked me why I was making the journeys I was, at the times when I was, and carrying what I was. Even now, in retirement, I drive quite a lot, sometimes over longish distances, still carrying "stuff" - albeit a different sort of stuff than I used to carry for work.

    And I have had to listen to all sorts of experts telling me that I was being selfish and doing it all wrong without taking the trouble to find out why I was doing it in the first place.

    The modern solution is to tell everyone that only fully electric autonomous cars will do; probably an easy answer if you look at a (small?) sub - set of all journeys made and project the findings on to all journeys. To be honest I could doubtless manage with a hybrid, but why should I "have" to allow the car to drive itself? My driving record is if not perfect at least one that has troubled the police and the courts little; from a personal (selfish?) perspective an autonomous car offers me nothing. (That might change; infirmity might catch up with me, but if that happens long journeys with "stuff" will be out anyway!)

    Examine London with its comprehensive public transport systems and you are likely to come to a different conclusion to that obtained by scrutinising the wider country. To my (probably) cynical mind reports such as these have the hallmarks of being tailored to fit an agenda.

    1. John Robson Silver badge

      Re: Bollocks...

      I'd love to be able to relax on a long drive, but paying constant attention to the road is not optional currently.

      Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed.

      Given that the vast proportion of journeys are pretty short then I still see the 'short range electric car' as a potential solution to many people's needs with a couple of (neither exclusive, nor complete) alternatives for longer distances:

      - Trailer (with either batteries or a generator)

      - Hire car

      - Trains for the short range cars (drive to station, onto train, off train carry on)

      1. John Smith 19 Gold badge
        WTF?

        "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

        Me too.

        Pity THEY DO NOT EXIST

        What is available (slightly smart cruise control) <> what people think is available (much better) <> what people dream about driving in.

        1. allthecoolshortnamesweretaken

          Re: "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

          Given that at the moment the availiable cars are level 2 at best we'll have to wait a little bit longer.

        2. John Robson Silver badge

          Re: "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

          "Pity THEY DO NOT EXIST"

          Shame that no research is being done then..

          Oh wait a moment, there is shed loads of research being done, to the point where we have vehicles on the road that are capable of a very significant proportion of the required driving.

          Pretty sure that even just getting a car to drive the motorway segments (which are by definition relatively easy) would be a vast improvement to the safety of driving at either end (certainly would improve my driving as I left the motorway if I had just had a few hours rest instead of constant observation).

          1. nijam Silver badge

            Re: "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

            > Shame that no research is being done then.

            Oh, there's research. And there's marketing, and there's propaganda. And the research is almost certainly the one of the three that gets the least resources.

          2. jrchips

            Re: "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

            "we have vehicles on the road that are capable of a very significant proportion of the required driving"

            The key words here are "a very significant proportion" because "a very significant proportion" doesn't mean "all". But it needs to be "all' if you want to take the driver out of the equation. As long as you require some occupant interaction/supervision/emergency override you require a sober, alert, non-distracted occupant. So forget about watching movies, sleeping, writing code, etc. Said another way, Level 4.8 isn't almost Level 5, it's just Level 4. And it could be worse, because if 90% of the driving is done for you who's going to be alert for the unplanned, time-uncertain 10%?

            Fully autonomous means fully autonomous under every circumstance. Otherwise folks won't trust the vehicle. That's why Level 5 is such a big challenge.

            1. John Robson Silver badge

              Re: "Having a level 5 autonomous vehicle would be very nice indeed."

              "The key words here are "a very significant proportion" because "a very significant proportion" doesn't mean "all". But it needs to be "all' if you want to take the driver out of the equation. As long as you require some occupant interaction/supervision/emergency override you require a sober, alert, non-distracted occupant. So forget about watching movies, sleeping, writing code, etc. Said another way, Level 4.8 isn't almost Level 5, it's just Level 4."

              Unless it can be level 5 on motorways, and 4/3/2 elsewhere.

              I see that as being achievable relatively easily - motorways are by definition and design simple roads to drive, with limited vehicle types, limited speed differentials, all the junctions are of one basic type (merge out/in) - navigation is simple as well...

              If I can drive the 5 miles to my nearest motorway junction and then rest/relax for 5 hours before getting prompted to take back over for the last 20 miles then my capacity for paying attention in those last 20 miles will be vastly improved over the version of me that has been paying close attention to the behaviour of all the other vehicles on the road for the last 5 hours - that's just inevitable.

              And of course in all likelihood the car will be monitoring my off motorway driving and providing alerts, or even emergency inputs, as well - which would be an additional boost to the safety of my driving.

              It's coming, and I hope it will be here fairly soon.

              However I do get a little concerned by the apparent tie-in people see between the driving technology and the power technology. Just because Tesla are doing a pretty damned good at both, doesn't mean they have to come together... I've seen some pretty decent stuff from Mercedes autonomous division with petrochemical propelled vehicles.

      2. Phil O'Sophical Silver badge

        Re: Bollocks...

        Plans to promote widescale use of battery-electric cars still don't take the charging problem into account. They posit some new battery technology that is cheap, holds at least twice as much as Li-ion, and can be recharged in 10 minutes, just like a petrol/diesel car. Even a back of the envelope calculation shows that the power needs of thousands of charging (filling) stations for such batteries would overwhelm existing infrastructure.

        Hire cars for longer journeys aren't practical either. If they were only needed for 10% of journeys who would manufacture them, and where would they be refuelled? Most of the demand would be school holidays and long weekends, so either there would be hundreds of thousands of such cars lying idle much of the time, or demand would outstrip supply.

        There's also the delivery vehicle problem, even with widespread rail transport for long distance the last 10-50 miles will need to be by road, and there'll need to be a refuelling infrastructure for that anyway. Since that fleet is mostly diesel we could end up with petrol cars being forced off the road and replaced by electric, leaving diesel cars for the long-distance travel, the exact opposite of what governments are pushing for now.

        I'd put my money on alternative liquid fuels, like alcohol. Some recent work (last year?) at Oak Ridge labs in the US has shown promise for nanoscale catalysts that can take CO2 and electricity and create alcohol. If it works on a large scale it could provide an answer to storing excess renewable energy at point of generation, help with carbon capture, and produce a fuel that will leave existing infrastructure and vehicles almost unchanged.

        1. ITnoob

          Re: Bollocks...

          Now if only someone would invent a charger that could be placed at work or at home. They could make a fortune ;)

        2. John Smith 19 Gold badge
          Pint

          "nanoscale catalysts that can take CO2 and electricity and create alcohol. "

          OMG.

          The holy grail.

          With a PV panel you can make beer* out of thin air.

          *Well a beverage with added alcohol content, which is enough for some people.

        3. inmypjs Silver badge

          Re: Bollocks...

          "I'd put my money on alternative liquid fuels"

          Yes you are never going to fly across the Atlantic on batteries, we are not going to have ships made half out of batteries so the can 'steam' for a week.

          When the dead dino stuff gets too hard to dig up we will be synthesising chemical fuels to exploit their 60:1 energy density advantage over batteries.

      3. bombastic bob Silver badge
        Devil

        Re: Bollocks...

        how about this:

        a) buy what you want

        b) let it use the kind of fuel you want (electricity, gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, propane, whatever)

        c) drive wherever you want

        d) pay all of the costs with YOUR OWN MONEY

        this should handle the vast majority of needs.

    2. a_yank_lurker

      Re: Bollocks...

      The basic fantasy of all these proposals is they do not consider the reasons why people make various choices. Also, too many of the agenda setters assume any reason they do not like is invalid and selfish.

      1. strum

        Re: Bollocks...

        >The basic fantasy of all these proposals is they do not consider the reasons why people make various choices.

        People can only choose from the (practical) options available. You might choose to go to work on a thoroughbred stallion, but if you've got nowhere to park it...

    3. Citizens untied

      Re: Bollocks...

      Hear hear. I think Mr. van Dyck honestly doesn't have the first clue what people who actually spend their time living their selfish unproductive lives are actually up to. Perhaps this is the problem they actually trying to solve.

      1. Terrance Brennan

        Re: Bollocks...

        I am surprised no one has said anything about the gibberish Van Dyck is blubbering at the end of the article. WTF is all that? It seems to be a string of unrelated buzz words/phrases. Does this guy have the slightest clue of this thing called "reality"?

    4. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Bollocks...

      Examine London with its comprehensive public transport systems

      Slow and shite in my not inconsiderable experience of the same. Many of the interchanges are incredibly tedious, manual and slow, air quality on the underground is appalling (so much for "zero emissions"), and door to door speed is often only about double walking speed.

      If London is the poster child for public transport, then we need a different solution.

    5. Vic

      Re: Bollocks...

      Either way the root cause is the same; lots of vehicles

      Actually, I don't think that is the root cause.

      IMO, it's poor driving standards. I cannot count the number of times I've driven along a 3-lane motorway with some moron doing 60mph in lane 2, with nothing whatsoever in lane 1. That leaves substantially all the motorway traffic having to merge from three lanes into one.

      And people aren't good at merging; there's this *need* to be one space ahead of someone you've never met before. So when two lanes merge together, both slow to a crawl or complete standstill. A little self-discipline, and *both* lanes would get through the merge much faster.

      Then there's the bunch that leave huge gaps in front of themselves I slow traffic. I cycled across the Itchen Toll Bridge this morning, watching several drivers leave a good 30 yards ahead clear. This just pushes the queue backwards by that amount - and when a queue hits a junction/roundabout, it propagates up all the feeder roads to that junction. It doesn't take many people like this to cause significant congestion.

      There are far more examples of crap driving, but those will do to get going with. TL;DR: our roads are able to deal with higher numbers of vehicles than they currently do, if only said vehicles weren't driven by people deliberately trying to stop all traffic.

      Vic.

      1. batfink
        Headmaster

        Re: Bollocks...

        @Vic - agree with your post in general, but your comment about somebody driving slowly 0in the middle lane requiring three lans of traffic into one isn't correct. It's just the wierd UK fallacy that you can't drive past somebody on their left and therefore need to cross two lanes to pass them on their right. I was dumbstruck the first time I saw it. Stop it at once!

        This is just an inability to distinguish between "overtaking oin the left" and "passing on the left". One is illegal, the other not. If you're already in a further-left lane, you can continue past a car on your right at your own speed. Now, compare this to "overtaking", which infers two lne-changes, ending up in the lane you started with.

        Of course, if we were to actually enforce the "keep left unless overtaking" rules, this problem wouldn't exist...

        1. Vic

          Re: Bollocks...

          It's just the wierd UK fallacy that you can't drive past somebody on their left and therefore need to cross two lanes to pass them on their right

          Except in two very specific circumstances - one of which is very unlikely to occur on motorways - that's no fallacy.

          You *are* allowed to pass on the left in congested conditions where the nearside lane is moving more quickly than the one to its right - "when traffic is moving slowly in queues", .

          You *are not*[1] allowed to pass on the left when someone is simply hogging lane 2.

          This is laid out in The Highway Code (Rule 163).

          Vic.

          [1] As this is a "should only" rule, it's not *technically* a breach of the Highway Code to overtake on the left - but there have been numerous prosecutions for doing this.

      2. Baldrickk

        Re: Bollocks...

        @Vic

        Agree completely on the middle lane hogger issue.

        Leaving some space though can help reduce traffic - think of all those times someone ends up in the wrong lane, intentionally or not, and needs to pull into the stationary lane of traffic and so stops (or drastically slows) in the moving lane, stopping that.

        Leaving a space allows them to pull in, keeping other lanes flowing.

        When this isn't the case, having a buffer zone can allow you to keep moving smoothly and slowly, instead of constant stop-start.

        1. Vic

          Re: Bollocks...

          Leaving some space though can help reduce traffic

          Sure - but there's a world of difference between leaving a bit of space so that traffic can adjust, and leaving an enormous gap in very slow-moving traffic on a single lane where there is no such adjustment to be made...

          When this isn't the case, having a buffer zone can allow you to keep moving smoothly and slowly, instead of constant stop-start.

          Yes, but again - if you're doing 5mph, you don't need much of a buffer to achieve that. 50 yards at 5mph is 20s of driving if the car in front doesn't move at all. That's not a buffer, that's just causing a traffic jam.

          Vic.

    6. MK_E

      Re: Bollocks...

      Have an upvote. I live in a satellite town and take the train in for a weekday commute. For travelling in en-masse with a few hundred other people who are all going from Specific Place A to Specific Place B, mass transit is perfect.

      On weekends? Sucks to be me, the trains don't run frequently enough to get me into town on time. Nobody else is going in at 7am on a Saturday so it doesn't make sense to send an entire train either.

      On night shifts? No such thing as an overnight return on scotrail, fork out for two singles even though it's literally the same as a dayshift worker's "go into work and back" just with AM and PM reversed.

      If I want to visit the parents? Public transport is, according to google, three changes minimum and will take three hours, at god knows what cost, while hopping in the car will get me there in little over an hour with as much crap packed into the boot as I feel like carrying. Even heading into Glasgow, the instant I put a single person in my passenger seat, it becomes cheaper per person than paying rail fare. Another guy I know wanted to travel from Leeds to Birmingham for the bank holiday weekend. It was literally cheaper for two people to go to the airport and hire a car than it was to take the train.

      All the ads and viral images I see scattered around the place along the lines of that one with a city street packed with cars and what it would look like if all those people took a single city bus or light rail seem to be oblivious to the idea that not all people are travelling to or from the same places or at the same times.

      1. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Bollocks...

        "For travelling in en-masse with a few hundred other people who are all going from Specific Place A to Specific Place B, mass transit is perfect."

        Unfortunately going from Specific Place A to Specific Place C by mass transit is unmitigated hell when mass transit only leaves A towards B which is diametrically opposite the direction to C. The journey from Specific Place B then goes by separate service to Specific Place D after a 40 minute wait and arrives there, assuming it's on time, with a 2 minute window to catch the next service, which runs at 15 minute intervals, to Specific Place C.

      2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: Bollocks...

        "No such thing as an overnight return on scotrail, fork out for two singles even though it's literally the same as a dayshift worker's "go into work and back" just with AM and PM reversed."

        That's the easy one One way for the first night, day returns work-home-work for the rest of the period, single the other way for the last night.

    7. Dave 15

      Re: Bollocks...

      Reasons to commute by car...

      Council stop the only direct busservice and tell you that you can use 2 busses instead (that take 5 hours in and 4 our out for a 25 mile journey)

      Government giving the unemployed a stack of cash to live in a house next to my office that they can't afford while I (stupidly trying to earn a living) have to commute every day because I can't afford the house I am paying for through my tax

      Companies that think if I work from home I will be shopping.... and ignoring the fact I am doing it on the itnernet from work anyway!

  3. JimC

    For inner cities

    Its quite easy to imagine a sort of automated electric taxi service, because usage will be high enough and dead time low enough. It would fight against energy usage of course, but automated interior cleaning would solve a lot of problems with multi use vehicles, and if lead times were short enough there could be something like a "reject if filthy" option wherupon it would go back to base for a deep clean.

    Long distance transport, and the countryside, on the other hand would be quite a different proposition.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: For inner cities

      It doesn't need automated interior cleaning, just internal cameras to see if the user has left mess in the car and give them the option to take it with them or pay for cleaning. When cleaning is required the car drives itself to a cleaner, probably someone working from home. I see an app coming on for this home worker car cleaning business .... lets call in Scruber.

      1. vir

        Re: For inner cities

        Not Scruber, Scrubbr. Or is that the one that lets you post pictures of your sponges for people to vote on?

      2. bombastic bob Silver badge
        Joke

        Re: For inner cities

        "When cleaning is required the car drives itself to a cleaner"

        rube goldberg setup ensues:

        a) car picked up, roof pops open, shake out the trash

        b) car is hosed down on the inside, blown dry with something equivalent to a jet engine

        c) a robot arm comes out from the side [off camera], hangs a tree-shaped de-oderizer from where the rear view mirror would normally be

        [while 'Powerhouse' plays in the background]

    2. Peter2 Silver badge

      Re: For inner cities

      Its quite easy to imagine a sort of automated electric taxi service, because usage will be high enough and dead time low enough.

      Cities have their own set of problems when you think about it.

      Firstly, you'd need time out to charge the battery, which is in fact a huge array of 18650 batteries, identical to that used on laptop's. In laptops lithium batteries tend to last for about a thousand charge cycles as a rule of thumb before you have to replace the battery because it won't hold a charge.

      Secondly, if it doesn't require a meatbag in the drivers seat then it's going to (in practice) be run 24x7 to take advantage of not requiring rest breaks, food, time with family etc resulting in fewer cars doing more mileage. What's that going to do to the battery?

      (assuming 1k charges until dead)

      @ 1 charge per day = ~ 3 years life.

      @ 2 charges per day = ~ a year and a half life.

      @ 3 charges per day = 9 months life.

      And a thousand charges on a laptop you get what, optimistically 10% of the rated capacity of the battery? If the full charge at new is ~300miles then I'd imagine a 10% capacity (ie 30 mile range) would be a problem for an electric car so they'd require replacement at shorter intervals than my thousand charge rule of thumb. Regardless, I think the electric car companies are going to be making "this is for home use only" rules for the battery rentals if anybody did start using them in any real way and the battery rentals cost a couple of hundred quid a month for home users as it is (more than I pay for fuel doing the uk average mileage!) before adding the cost of the electricity to charge it with.

      1. JimC

        Re: For inner cities/battery charge

        If you assume shared vehicles then its straightforward enough for them to return to a base for charging and flag themselves up as unavailable when the battery hits a trigger level. There'll need to be some smart logic in the system so that maximum numbers of vehicles are available and charged at times of peak demand, but this is scarcely conceptually difficult. I would see someone like TFL being the broker as it were for the service, and then private companies could tender to supply vehicles to TFL so there would be no monopoly supplier. If you like you can imagine 1st, 2nd and 3rd class cabs at different rates and other subtleties, but it out not be very different from a sort of self delivering and selfreturning Boris bike.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: For inner cities/battery charge

          Why do we have to have autonomous vehicles inside the city at all? Our goal is not to drive cars around London, it's to get people and things from one place to another. As the article briefly suggested, there might be other ideas that are more efficient and effective.

          I think moving sidewalks could be terribly effective for this if you can get some going 20 MPH. Just so long as there's still a way to make large deliveries.

          1. This post has been deleted by its author

            1. Vic

              Re: Moving sidewalks

              so you just walk across the tracks to one travelling at a reasonable speed for your length of journey

              That would give rise to a new game - betting on the number of people who fall over as they change track...

              Vic.

              1. This post has been deleted by its author

            2. I am the liquor

              Re: Moving sidewalks

              The roads must roll.

            3. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

              Re: Moving sidewalks

              "You had a dozen walkways running in parallel where each successive 'track' ran faster than the previous, so you just walk across the tracks to one travelling at a reasonable speed for your length of journey, and then back down again when your stop was coming up."

              How did they handle intersections?

              1. defiler

                Re: Moving sidewalks

                "How did they handle intersections?"

                Tuck and roll.

            4. Whiskers

              Re: Moving sidewalks

              Not Asimov; H G Wells in 1898 "When the Sleeper Wakes" <http://www.gutenberg.org/files/775/775-h/775-h.htm#link2HCH0005> (re-written in 1910).

              1. This post has been deleted by its author

        2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

          Re: For inner cities/battery charge

          There'll need to be some smart logic a lot of investment in cars lying idle most of the day in the system so that maximum numbers of vehicles are available and charged at times of peak demand, but this is scarcely conceptually difficult.

          That's assuming "maximum numbers" means "enough to meet demand". A private motorist might be prepared to invest in a car that lies idle most of the time because the journeys they make in it are important enough to them to justify that. An investor is going to want RoI over a short enough period to make it worth while.

      2. Doctor Syntax Silver badge

        Re: For inner cities

        "it's going to (in practice) be run 24x7"

        In order to do this you're either going to have to even out demand or leave a lot of dissatisfied would-be punters at rush hour.

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