Robots will enable a sustainable grey economy My uncle Amadeo turns 79 this week and bought himself a luxe Model S Tesla as a present. Amadeo is an eminent scientist and avid student of the future, so the Tesla was an obvious choice because I suspect he recognises that he won’t always feel comfortable behind the wheel. So he opted for a vehicle that can already do some …
Many developing countries already have this. It's called public transport.
When transport is comprehensive, and people aren't all spread out in decaying suburban sprawl, car ownership becomes optional and even undesirable. In some countries buses are free for old people, no proof of age required.
What will happen is these countries will move on to cool maglev trains, self-driving buses, cycle lanes, pedestrianised city centres, and car cultures will be stuck with an unassailable socio-technological debt. You have to build public transport into the fabric of new cities.
Good idea, AC! They could learn from the UK's best public transport, in and around London.
Its slow, dirty, overcrowded, and a wholly unpleasant experience. It has minimal levels of adaptation for the elderly or those with limited mobility. And at a total cost level it is ludicrously expensive, even if fares are controlled down.
If you really think we're moving to a post-personal transport world, you've only thought about it from the public sector provider perspective, rather than what people actually want.
> You have to build public transport into the fabric of new cities.
Building infrastructure for the future is tricky - you don't know what you'll need. Take the first canals in England; they were relatively narrow, because it wasn't seen how popular they would become. Businesses and warehouses were built right next to them, which meant that they then couldn't be widened, necessitating the construction of new canals for service the same routes.
New cities... Interesting. ”If you want to go there, then I wouldn't start from here" goes the old joke. Can anyone here sketch out a portrait of any recent examples from around the world? In any case, the majority of the urban population, especially in the West, won't be living in new cities anytime soon.
Dave 126 : "New cities... Interesting. ”If you want to go there, then I wouldn't start from here" goes the old joke. Can anyone here sketch out a portrait of any recent examples from around the world? "
The only one that springs to mind (and I can't say it's a shining example),
Naypyidaw - the capital of Burma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naypyidaw
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/mar/19/burmas-capital-naypyidaw-post-apocalypse-suburbia-highways-wifi
> Take the first canals in England; they were relatively narrow, because it wasn't seen how popular they would become. Businesses and warehouses were built right next to them, which meant that they then couldn't be widened, necessitating the construction of new canals for service the same routes.
Pedantically, widening a canal is trivially easy (you just dig away the bank) except for the tunnels and locks, which are nigh on impossible to widen without closing the canal for the duration.
The original canals were narrow because the boats were horse drawn, and since horses walk at the same speed as each other, overtaking wasn't seen as necessary.
"UK's best public transport, in and around London."
It might be dirty and slow, but at least London has viable public transport. In Bristol we only have buses, and they're bloody terrible. They're expensive (more than London), slow (slower than walking a lot of the time), infrequent, dangerous, and rarely go where you need.
That said, public transport is tricky anywhere the street plan is basically still based on the medieval roads that Farmer Giles used to get his cows to the river a thousand years ago.
> ...public transport is tricky anywhere the street plan...
Nothing to do with street plans. Public transport is conceptually flawed, based on the weird assumption that everybody has the same requirements. There are a few places where it's a statistically-valid assumption, but usually it's unjustifiable. In the UK, transport systems are hobbled because policy-makers base their policies on what would (perhaps) work for (their part of) London.
And not forgetting government short sightedness. We still don't have a railway station in the town/village I live in, despite rapidly expanding population due to house building. All thanks to Dr Beeching*
*Note, the only reason East Grinstead kept its station was the fact his other half needed to still be able to get in and out of London from there. The surprise was that they didn't keep the line going south, obviously she wasn't that keen on ice creams by the seaside...
>Public transport is conceptually flawed, based on the weird assumption that everybody has the same requirements
Yet there are traffic jams, all over the country, because huge numbers of people want to go from (roughly) the same place to another same place.
Increasingly, as autonomous(ish) vehicles can take public transport passengers the last mile or so, it will be private transport that fades away.
"Increasingly, as autonomous(ish) vehicles can take public transport passengers the last mile or so, it will be private transport that fades away."
How does that work? Is public transport going to invest in fleets of autonomous vehicles that will be used for an hour or so at each end of the working day? Private owners do so because they have to. Public owners won't because it's SEP.
The key point is "roughly"...
And in these instances, the public transport (if it exists) is usually over congested too, and the routing may make things worse as it forces people to take indirect routes via hub locations instead of going directly to their destinations.
Too many people going to the same places at the same times. The congestion problems would be solved by spreading out times and locations.
"Public transport is conceptually flawed, based on the weird assumption that everybody has the same requirements."
Which usually comes to the conclusion that everyone wants to commute into the centre of $city in the morning and back out at night.
This starts to fail when you have clusters of towns & cities such as Manchester, Oldham, Huddersfield, Bradford, Leeds/, Wakefield and Sheffield (plus a few others on t'wrong side of t'Pennines) or the equivalent in the Midlands & the North East. You then find that the only public transport offered is $home to $(centre you don't want to go to) to $(centre nearer where you want to go to) to $(where you want to go to) and it takes 2 hours each way with one connection involving a 40 minute wait and another just 40 seconds. It doesn't help to move house because different members of the household commute in different directions.
It might be dirty and slow, but at least London has viable public transport. In Bristol we only have buses, and they're bloody terrible. They're expensive (more than London), slow (slower than walking a lot of the time), infrequent, dangerous, and rarely go where you need.
You think Bristol's busses are dangerous? Try Reading's.
For those not in a big city, how often do they drive? The grandparents drive once a week shopping and once or twice a month to the doctor's.
If they got rid of the car and used a taxi, it would probably work out a lot less than the maintenance and insurance for the year, let alone deprecation, fuel etc.
"For those not in a big city, how often do they drive?"
Let's see.
Mondays SWMBO to gym. We each pick up one of the grandkids from school.
Tuesdays SWMBO to her patchwork class (used to be me who drove her before some equipment changes were made & a smaller car was enough). Then SWMBO to art class.
Wednesdays SWMBO to gym then one of other of us take grandkids to tennis.
Thursdays Me take SWMBO to charity shop, collect her later then go for meal, one week in 3 go to local auction viewing.
Fridays SWMBO to gym, then often both of us out to where-ever (it's often the only weekday with nothing fixed for the afternoon).
Shopping? Oh, mostly me, two or three times a week.
The thing is, we both grew up in a time when private vehicles were rare. When they became generally accessible it was a change which had probably only been equalled once in human history and that was the introduction of the bicycle. It represented a huge expansion of individual freedom to travel at will. The introduction of railways probably came somewhere close but even then there was a constraints of distance from station, routes and timetables.
I suspect the entrenched hostility of TPTB to the private car is an expression of their instinctive opposition to any form of personal freedom - much the same as their current opposition to privacy of communication.
For the elderly, it's often a matter of freedom and quality of life rather than cost. My father continued to drive with dementia and burned out several clutches in the course of two years but would never contemplate taking a taxi because in his remote part of the coutryside it would mean booking a taxi several days in advance and at the same point confirming a pick-up time. The ability to do things spontaneously rather than at someone else's convenience has a value, particularly when your control over other parts of your life is slipping away.
Having an autonomous car collect the shopping is also not really what elderly people want - they don't want to be confined indoors seeing noone. And, indeed, how long are traditional shops going to survive?
Video chat with their friends and a delivery driver turning up periodically along with a postman and milkman would do a great deal more for many isolated elderly than an autonomous vehicle taking them on a solitary trip to the last supermarket not to fall to the might of Amazon.
A version of Skype running on a large screen on the wall that could be operated without continously swapping spectacles would make a much bigger difference at a much lower level of investment.
Video chat with their friends and a delivery driver turning up periodically along with a postman and milkman would do a great deal more for many isolated elderly than an autonomous vehicle taking them on a solitary trip to the last supermarket not to fall to the might of Amazon
I beg to differ - video chat is not a like-for-like replacement for social interaction with an actual human being.
Speaking from experience, my own father falls into the "lonely" category right now, having recently suffered the bereavement of my mother. He'd had someone by his side pretty much all day every day for something like 6 decades. With that gone, he feels very isolated.
Having only a few moments of human interaction with a milkman or postman each day is not enough, and to keep his sanity he travels to places where he can meet friends in person...just talking on the phone is not enough. Until you've felt lonely and isolated, you cannot imagine how soul-crushing it is to go for a entire 24 or 48 hour periods without seeing another human being.
@Hans Neeson-Bumpsadese
"you cannot imagine how soul-crushing it is to go for a entire 24 or 48 hour periods without seeing another human being."
You just described my perfect weekend.
If I could make this happen for my weeks off work (have to go buy food somewhere), I would happily do it.
"What makes you think that all old people should or want to live in a crowded city as they get older."
I live in the country. We still have the remnants of public transport here. If I want to go somewhere where I can't be bothered with the hassle of parking or just their general hostility to cars as a whole I use my bus pass. It is, of course, ironic that the better bus service isn't the one with a bus stop just down the lane but the one where I have to drive a few miles to the bus stop.
Public transport does not work for all places in the US. Even if it did, there are still issues with the elderly (I'm getting there myself) with 1) actually getting to the bus/train stop 2) Some of us live miles/kilometers from the nearest stop.
This is what I'm coining as the "last step" (or last wheel-chair?) problem (as opposed to the last mile problem).
The timing may actually be pretty good for me. I figure I will want (or need) something like this in about 10-15 years - by then they <should> have all of the issues worked out.. I hope..
There's also the issue of one's independence which Yanks have shown to value from time-to-time.
The bus service in Kent is geared up to support all ages of traveller. Newer designs of bus lower themselves to the kerb when they stop to allow wheelchair users on, they are equipped with USB charging points for mobile devices and even have rudimentary wifi while in built up areas. My Mum is 73 years old and has thouroughly relished her free bus pass since it was first issued to her on her retirement. She has no need for a car or even a license, despite living in the sticks. Hourly buses work just fine and are a far cheaper, less wasteful use of resources than individual autonomus vehicles, no matter how cool they sound.
> Can he get into and out of the Tesla without help?
One of the reasons that Japan has led the way in robotics (besides their high tech manufacturing base) is due to their awareness that their population is aging, and their are fewer young people to care for the infirm aged. This means that devices that aid in the care of older people are of great interest. A vehicle with a mechanised seat that raises the passenger up is not beyond the wit of engineers.
The infirm are of course only the extreme end of an older population. Japan (and Germany for that matter) have used design of the workplace to allow people to stay in work for longer. Indoor hydroponics farms for growing lettuce, with the plants grown on raised beds mean that they can be harvested without the farmers bending down.
Help or not, according to the article one can get a Tesla S for about a hundred times the price of a Zimmer frame. I just saw one (Zimmer) on Amazon UK for £32.40, I am going to buy a Tesla S tomorrow with cash, ready for my retirement next year.
I drove one for a short distance a couple of years ago, impressive!
Across town a carer on minimum wage is performing her third "manual evacuation" of the week on an constipated codger while trying to work out a route to her next appointment that will get here there before she is docked for being late, and which won't need the driving skills of Jason Staitham in The Transporter, or an Audi to do so.
Her employers, who won the contract from the local authority on the faked credentials and bogus social connections of the CEO, will continue to charge the local authority through the nose for this service, because running it in house cannot possibly be a good use of resources because subcon-tractors are soooo much more efficient.
We've just seen how hard it is politically to address these issues. Theresa May makes tentative noises about using using the assets of a generation who have done pretty well to pay for younger people to care for them and people start shouting 'dementia tax!' by people claiming to be 'progressive'.
I'm not saying I supported her plan, just that any sensible debate seems impossible with partisan views. If only sociable media could be used for education and learning instead of uninformed self expression.
And a form of social networking maybe could be so used - there are efforts to network experts to answer social and technological problems.
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/futuretense/how-to-problem-solve---the-ultimate-problem/8610108
Agreed.
Where the "Grey vote" is concerned it's not just the codgers who are sh***ing themselves over the costs of community care.
My "techno fix" would be a human sized and shaped remotely operated avatar which was strong enough and agile enough to handle elderly care, eliminating the travel problems and allowing enough time to properly tend to peoples needs and without risking serious injury doing so.
But the issue remains where the money comes from. Life expectancy is going up. In the UK it is expected that 25% of the people alive today will live to 100, an astonishing figure that's been quietly creeping up year by year, 1% at a time.
Well, if we could build robots to build the robots that help us out of bed...
Taken all the way (eliminate all human labour) we eventually get to questions about the allocation of finite resources, such as land, minerals and power (energy)… and thus population growth.
"In the UK it is expected that 25% of the people alive today will live to 100, an astonishing figure that's been quietly creeping up year by year, 1% at a time."
If they live longer then it is probably because they are healthier even if there is a cost in drugs to maintain that they are less likely to need high levels of care and, trying to be on topic, self driving cars and other robotics will also help them remain in their own homes for longer too.
An optimistic view perhaps, I just prefer to hope for the best and plan for the worst rather than sink into a pit of depression that will be self fulfilling.
> If they live longer then it is probably because they are healthier even if there is a cost in drugs to maintain that they are less likely to need high levels of care
Not exactly. Longer life spans are partly attributable to a decrease in cheap to treat conditions such as heart disease*, thus a rise in expensive to cope with conditions such as dementia.
*If you survive you may have a Stent or drug treatment and lifestyle changes - or else it kills you quickly. Dementia patients may require care for years.
"Not exactly. Longer life spans are partly attributable to a decrease in cheap to treat conditions such as heart disease*, thus a rise in expensive to cope with conditions such as dementia."
Yes, I know it does not balance out and even if treatments to prevent/delay/reverse some types of dementia become available there will be other things that cost more. Robotics in the home, while cheaper than humans still will not be cheap.
This may pull in some down votes so let me preface that I mean the following supported by an ethical framework; my father has Alzheimer's. Dependent in individual circumstances stopping treatment of dementia patients for some of the other conditions such as heart disease could be the kindest thing.
@John Smith 19
Across town a carer on minimum wage is performing her third "manual evacuation" of the week on an constipated codger...
My "techno fix" would be a human sized and shaped remotely operated avatar which was strong enough and agile enough to handle elderly care,
"All right Mr. Colnberst, we'll get you cleaned out straight away. Just hold still."
"OHJESUSGOD!"
"I'm so sorry Mr. Colnberst, this thing is acting up again. Let me call tech support."
"Hello, this is tech support. How may I help you toda...ooohhhh, that's what you're doing right now."
"The arm on this thing isn't moving properly. It should be making a slow, gentle movement, but it's just slamming down hard."
"Let me just try resetting the control unit here."
"MOTHEROFGOD!!!"
"Well, that shouldn't have happened. Let me check the servo calibration."
"SWEETJESUSMARYMAGDALENE!!!!"
"Huh, everything I do seems to cause the arm to actuate. Let me try a factory default reset."
"OHMYGODOHMYGODMOTHEROFGODJESUSGOD!!!"
"The control unit isn't responding..."
"AHHHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHHHH-AHHHHHHHH!!!"
"I think the arm's trying to seek to it's factory default position, but Mr...is it Colnberst...is in the way, so it just keeps trying again and again."
"OUR FATHER-UUUHHHHHHHHAAA-WHO ART IN HEAVEN-EEEEEYYYYYYHHHHHAAAAA-HALLOWED BE-GAAAAAAAAA!!!"
"Yeah, okay, uhhh, I've come to the conclusion that the problem is because of your internet. You'll have to call your ISP. Have a nice day." (click)
"Hello? Hello?!"
"THOUGH I WALK THROUGH-OHMYGAAAAAAAD-VALLEY OF THE SHADOW-GUUUUAAAAA-FEAR NO EVIL-RAAAAAWWWW-WILL IT NEVER END!!!?"
Ho ho ho. Very nicely done.
The comic possibilities are nearly endless.
What I had in mind was more what "Shadow Robtics" had created for a "robot chef" system. This uses high power to weight pneumatic "muscles" (essentially balloons inside a strong knitted bag)
Such systems can be as strong as hydraulic systems but as the run on compressed air they can be compliant, so if you push back they "give." Handy for safety issues but still able to lift an adult in an emergency.
Lighter "muscles" means lighter structures and lower power needs, a ripple effect throughout the design.
For the UI I was thinking of putting a screen on the front face like those things at conferences, like Segways with web cams, microphones for the back channel.
The goal is to help people stay in their own homes who are still mobile but with limited mobility.
Seriously, the autonomous car could reverse the decline of the country pub. Well, it would address one factor; successive governments have been determined to keep raising beer duties on health grounds, despite the fact that booze can be bought for an eighth of the price from a supermarket and consumed at home. What we lose is community and the health benefits of society and laughter.
the autonomous car could reverse the decline of the country pub
If transport were the issue, yes. But the even faster decline of urban pubs suggest there's rather more to it. The decline has been fairly continuous since before 1980, with a brief pause during the late 1990s. It isn't really about the smoking ban, or taxes, or transport, it is that fewer and fewer people want to drink in pubs, for a range of reasons.
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