back to article Scariest climate change prediction yet: More time to eat plane food

Increasingly powerful transatlantic jet streams thanks could by 2050 add a global 2000 hours of extra flight time, says a University of Reading study. Jet streams are fast winds that can reach 300km/h and which flow from west to east. The winds are at their strongest during winter when the boundaries between hot and cold air …

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  1. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    False premise leads to false results

    Pretty much sums up the state of "climate change" modelling. Once you have bought off on the bogus predictions of the climate modellers, one can more or less model any future result.

    However, if the actual satellite data is correct, and the warming stays in the trivial department (as it has for 40 years according to the instruments in space), this, like most catastrophic predictions will not come to pass.

    I miss Lewis :(

    1. Dan 55 Silver badge
      Happy

      Re: False premise leads to false results

      New narrative: okay, we admit things are actually getting warmer, but only a little bit.

      1. codejunky Silver badge

        Re: False premise leads to false results

        @ Dan 55

        "New narrative: okay, we admit things are actually getting warmer, but only a little bit."

        I am fairly sure the narrative is the same old 'we all gonna die, the saviour is coming, something about 4 horsemen'.

        You would have thought the many false claims and blatant wealth transfer would have changed their story by now but nope. They still wanna stand on top of a hill waiting for their mothership to take them away while the rest of us burn on this planet. (I may have got the religions mixed up a little there. Eventually they all start sounding so similar)

      2. Fluffy Bunny
        Holmes

        Re: False premise leads to false results

        "Except that things aren't getting warmer. What are getting warmer are the brows of all the "climate scientists" as they rewrite the world's temperature record to turn flat and/or cooling trends into warming. There is a new hockey stick in the world. It is all the modifications to the world's temperature records getting higher and higher in yet another attempt to produce the "world's warmest".

        Every site in Paraguay was corrupted. Ditto Iceland. Even in Australia, an astounding level of scientific fraud has been committed.

    2. Thought About IT

      Re: False premise leads to false results

      "Boffins" can predict all they like, but no evidence will change the mind of those who are convinced AGW is a conspiracy. Some "boffins" even calculated that, given the number of scientists involved, such a conspiracy would fall apart after 3.5 years at most, but conspiracy theorists are immune to evidence.

      1. Someonehasusedthathandle

        Re: False premise leads to false results

        It's not a conspiracy, it's skepticism. It's looking at the data provided and finding it lacking.

        1. Thought About IT

          Re: False premise leads to false results

          "It's not a conspiracy, it's skepticism. It's looking at the data provided and finding it lacking."

          When over 97% of those qualified to study the evidence find it compelling, only a conspiracy theory explains your so-called scepticism.

          1. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re: False premise leads to false results

            When somebody tells you that there is 97% agreement for something as complex as this, you have to question whether it's true.

            The 97% figure is one of the things that makes me think 'hmmm'.

            1. Thought About IT

              Re: False premise leads to false results

              "The 97% figure is one of the things that makes me think 'hmmm'", that must be a conspiracy!

            2. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: False premise leads to false results

              Another thing that makes me think 'hmmm' is that temperatures are currently relatively stable ( ie: it's not 50°c in the UK today ), but any day now, if we don't do something immediately, that hockey stick is going to kick in. It's all too way convenient.

              1. TheVogon

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                "temperatures are currently relatively stable"

                You must have missed the last 2 years being in turn the warmest since records began?

                1. Anonymous Coward
                  Anonymous Coward

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  Only if you believe the homogonised ground data sets, which here in Australia are modified on a daily basis. The past has been cooled and the present is warmed ... ho-hum, the farce continues.

                2. codejunky Silver badge

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  @ TheVogon

                  "You must have missed the last 2 years being in turn the warmest since records began?"

                  Last I heard from the priests of MMCC it took many years to establish a trend and a couple of years data that didnt fit the pre-assumed conclusion was not acceptable as evidence of anything at all. Or have the rules changed again?

                  1. TheVogon

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    "it took many years to establish a trend"

                    But only a few years in this case to demonstrate that something is not "stable" but is subject to significant variation.

                    Trends like AGW though do indeed take many years to take us to the current point of lack of credible scientific doubt.

                    1. codejunky Silver badge

                      Re: False premise leads to false results

                      @ TheVogon

                      "But only a few years in this case to demonstrate that something is not "stable" but is subject to significant variation."

                      Nobody but the cult of absolute disbeliever understand that the world has gone through many changes.

                      "Trends like AGW though do indeed take many years to take us to the current point of lack of credible scientific doubt."

                      Except for the large periods of doubt where the amount of evidence forever needed increasing until it proved the pre-determined outcome. Say the world is doomed for long enough and eventually you will be proven right, but calling 6 every time a dice rolls will eventually land on the right answer too.

                      1. TheVogon

                        Re: False premise leads to false results

                        "Nobody but the cult of absolute disbeliever understand that the world has gone through many changes."

                        But most of them not caused by mankind over a few decades.

                        "but calling 6 every time a dice rolls will eventually land on the right answer too."

                        That's a good example of what the deniers are doing citing "18 years" of no warming - natural variation in the short term will always provide windows where you can pretend your chosen outcome is happening by cherry picking time ranges.

                        However, the longer term your data set versus the effect you are measuring, the less likely statistical anomalies are versus a long term trend...See for instance https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

                        1. codejunky Silver badge

                          Re: False premise leads to false results

                          @ TheVogon

                          "But most of them not caused by mankind over a few decades."

                          And there is a HUGE question over this one. That is why claiming the change is abnormal requires better proof than a religious belief. This is why it is sound to disbelieve the doomsday prophecy as it is to ignore those who claim nothing changes. Our understanding of climate just isnt good enough but a religious exploitation of a lack of scientific information is the same thing creationists did to argue against evolution (until science caught up). We cant get the answer until the work has been done.

                          "That's a good example of what the deniers are doing citing "18 years" of no warming - natural variation in the short term will always provide windows where you can pretend your chosen outcome is happening by cherry picking time ranges."

                          It is a fantastic example of the MMCC co2 theory religion. For many years everything they predicted was wrong, but they still insisted they were right. They were proven wrong and proven to be falsifying data to push their point. MMCC co2 theory has dont more to damage the reputation of 'scientists' than pretty much anything else I can think of. As I recall the 18yr argument was an amusement at the forever moving goalposts of MMCC co2 theory. We need x more years of data, every time the deadline passed the same comment was made and the same prophecy made. The religion made the sticks they are consistently beaten with (including cherry picking date ranges). As you say anyone can prove their chosen outcome by cherry picking, and people are sick of it (from both sides but mostly the homicidal people pushing MMCC co2 theory).

                          "However, the longer term your data set versus the effect you are measuring, the less likely statistical anomalies are versus a long term trend"

                          Very true depending on the reliability of the data and the manipulations which are applied. Lewis popped up a wonderful article ages ago about NASA modifying a dataset so badly that even the IPCC (not the most reliable nor trustworthy) refused to stand by it. And shockingly the modification changed a flat line to an increasing one.

                3. Anonymous Coward
                  Anonymous Coward

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "You must have missed the last 2 years being in turn the warmest since records began?"

                  Meh. "Since records began" is merely a blip in the earth's history.

            3. Anonymous Coward
              Anonymous Coward

              Re: False premise leads to false results

              And another ( last one, promise ):

              THIS YEAR HOTTEST EVER ( although actually *way* within the error margins, technically equally as warm as one year just after the war before AGW really apparently kicked in ). That form of hyperbole doesn't sit well with me.

              1. NomNomNom

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                "THIS YEAR HOTTEST EVER ( although actually *way* within the error margins, technically equally as warm as one year just after the war before AGW really apparently kicked in ). That form of hyperbole doesn't sit well"

                Well 2015 was the warmest year on record at the surface. It isn't within the error margins, it's the warmest.

                1. NomNomNom

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  so there is no 97% consensus of climate scientists that man made global warming is true but 100% of climate scientists believe in man made global warming to get more funding.

                  Thanks for the laugh people

                  1. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    Well, NomNomNom, you might actually read some of the sources claiming this (but we all know you won't, because you are a cheerleader for this bullshit). The links have been provided, so you do not have to dig up the papers - I have read some of them, utter bollocks!

                2. Fluffy Bunny
                  Holmes

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  2015 hottest ever. Except for 2010. And 1997. Oh, and let's not forget the medieval warm period, or the Roman warm period, or the Minoan warm period. Don't worry your pretty little head about that, we have the very best scientists rewriting history to remove those inconvenient truths.

                  And be very careful not to tell anyone that we're just in the latest of the interglacials, and a rather weak one at that.

                  1. NomNomNom

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    2015 is the hottest on record in all records except the lower troposphere records. It beats both 2010 and 1997.

                    That's land surface, sea surface and ocean heat.

                    curiously sceptics only see fit to ever quote the lower troposphere records as the single source of truth. Never mentioning that the most serious errors found in any records were in those lower troposphere records, which are just as heavily adjusted as the surface records.

                    As I said before the whole data adjustment conspiracy theory is politically motivated by sceptics straining for a justification for why they cherrypick the record that is most convenient to their argument. That's also why sceptics never question the adjustments made to the lower troposphere records. They could do so easily, but it wouldn't be politically expedient for the lobbyist funded think tanks (GWPF, Heartland Institute, SEPP) who churn out the sceptic memes for media consumption to do so.

                    Another thing is that only a few years ago sceptics were actively citing the other records to claim there was a pause in warming. It's only since additional time in a warming world has demolished the idea that the world has stopped warming that they are now disowning those records and clinging on to one. I expect the lower troposphere will go the same way soon too. All the indexes are heading upwards, it's only a matter of time.

                    Even sea level which is a proxy of thermal expansion and therefore (although just a few years ago sceptics were even trying to claim that had paused).

                    All the failed predictions seem to be stacking up on the side of the sceptics. Including their global cooling "it's going to cool down any day now" ideas.

                    Only the fervent believers among sceptics are going to be able to keep it up in coming years, probably trying to whitewash the history of pause advocacy in the process. We'll have another arctic sea ice record minimum in years to come and these sceptics will be desperately trying for a THIRD time to claim it's the last one and that ice is not heading towards zero. Really don't think the wider world is going to buy such insane repeatedly demonstrated wrong denial.

                    Perhaps this was why lewis page was disposed of. Afterall republican anti-science conspiracy theory style tabloid trash about "hoaxes" of adjusted data and new world order puppet masters is in stark contrast to decent scientific reporting such as:

                    http://arstechnica.co.uk/science/2016/01/thorough-not-thoroughly-fabricated-the-truth-about-global-temperature-data/

                    Perhaps the register doesn't want to be associated with trump-like reality bending stupidity anymore.

                    1. Anonymous Coward
                      Anonymous Coward

                      Re: False premise leads to false results

                      "All the failed predictions seem to be stacking up on the side of the sceptics. "

                      An obligatory cartoon - https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/failed-climate-predictions.jpg

                      Entertaining reading, about failed predictions.

                      http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/18888-embarrassing-predictions-haunt-the-global-warming-industry

                      http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/25-years-of-predicting-the-global-warming-tipping-point/

                      http://climatechangepredictions.org/

                      Meanwhile, the search for the missing "tropospheric hotspot", the #1 verifiable prediction of the "CO2 will cook us all" brigade, continues apace.

            4. GrumpenKraut

              Re: False premise leads to false results

              > The 97% figure is one of the things that makes me think 'hmmm'.

              You'll find that about the same percentage (likely a higher one) of physicists accept, say, quantum mechanics.

              Interpreting overwhelming agreement on a topic in the scientific community as suspect is very unwise.

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                But nobody is hoping to use the consensus on QM to reduce the living standards of everybody in the world.

                My point is that I don't believe the 97% figure. It's being jammed down our throats so as to say "You're wrong, science says so, reduce your living standards".

                I won't believe until I see some some actual evidence, not a vague promise that keeps getting pushed back, that any day now, we're going to experience the pointy end of hockey stick. Every time it's "firey death in 20 years", but 20 years came and went and we're apparently occasionally 0.1° warmer, within the margin of error.

                Next prediction, of course, will be different.

                1. TheVogon

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "I won't believe until I see some some actual evidence"

                  Like the accelerating year on year rise in sea levels for instance?

                  1. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    "Accelerating sea level rises" - not happening anywhere in the real world. Of course after data is homogonised and corrected, who knows (or cares).

                    1. TheVogon

                      Re: False premise leads to false results

                      ""Accelerating sea level rises" - not happening anywhere in the real world."

                      Sure - so those island states that are gradually sinking benieth the waves are imagining it? Or they are not "the real world"?

                      See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#/media/File:Trends_in_global_average_absolute_sea_level,_1880-2013.png

                      1. TheVogon

                        Re: False premise leads to false results

                        Also of note for sea level rise - 20% of it has been offset by increased retention of water on land - see:

                        http://spacecoastdaily.com/2016/02/study-nasa-satellite-shows-rising-seas-slowed-by-increasing-water-on-land/

                    2. This post has been deleted by its author

                    3. Vladimir Nicolici
                      FAIL

                      Re: False premise leads to false results

                      "data is homogonised"

                      Homo-what?

                      1. Anonymous Coward
                        Anonymous Coward

                        Re: False premise leads to false results

                        "Homogonised" is the term used by the Australian BoM for the temperature data set that is altered on a daily basis and is published. There have long been discussions about whether this activity is alone responsible for "creating" warming in Australia.

                        Here, there is a (disingenuous IMHO) defence of the practice.

                        http://theconversation.com/no-the-bureau-of-meteorology-is-not-fiddling-its-weather-data-31009

                        Basically, they claim that "everyone does it and so should we" and claim that their data reduces the trend in "extreme temperatures" in the 1951-2010 data set. This is a magicians trick, look here, not there! One wonders why this particular period is chosen or this particular aspect - indeed

                2. Alan Brown Silver badge

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "But nobody is hoping to use the consensus on QM to reduce the living standards of everybody in the world."

                  If you want to curb AGW, then you _can't reduce the living standards of everyone. Developed countries, perhaps, but 3/4 of the world lives in poverty and the only way to reduce their population growth is to make them better off.

                  The REAL answer to the issue is "more nooclear", but that doesn't fit the prevailing political agenda.

                  It's also worth noting that whilst a few hundred million dollars get thrown at things like the G8 Paris conference on climate change so all the leaders can hob-nob, actual researchers are mostly hard pressed to even get 50-100k grants for enough computing power to validate atmospheric satellite observations made over the last 40 years and see how much things have actually changed

                  (Hint: we know what the heat blanketing factor of CO2 is, but what we don't know is how much the earth's reflectivity has changed overall and therefore how much actual solar heat was retained in the atmosphere. At the current pace of data crunching, the project for analysing the change in every km^2 of the earth via satellite imagery taken over the last 40 years will be completed in 10-15 years)

                  1. TheVogon

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    "the only way to reduce their population growth is to make them better off."

                    Or not spend billions of our aid budget on keeping them alive in countries already populated well beyond what local resources can consistently support.

              2. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                @GrumpenKraut It also turns out that a significant number of theoretical physicists and real scientists incl. Nobel laureates, think that "climate science" is completely bogus and unrelated to science.

                1. GrumpenKraut

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  > ...a significant number of theoretical physicists and real scientists incl. Nobel laureates ... [citation needed]

                  Certainly not a significant percentage.

                  Plus, how do you define "real scientists", as not doing climate research?

              3. G R Goslin

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                If you look back, I think you'll find that at one time, not too long ago, more than 97% of scientists said that plate tectonics was not possible, and looking back a bit more, that the Big Bang Theory of evolution was rubbish. Whilst the first has been proven, we're still waiting on the latter. And going back a lot further the consensus of scientists was that the sun and stars orbited the Earth.

              4. Fluffy Bunny
                Holmes

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                Interestingly, quantum physicists don't accept quantum physics. That isn't to say that they don't accept quantum mechanics. It has made far too many accurate predictions to not be true. But they don't accept the exact same quantum mechanics. There is a tremendous amount of churn in the field, with everybody developing their own specific improvements.

                The same applies to relativity. The field is tremendously useful, but it is also very active with everybody providing their own unique contribution. Again, many accurate predictions demonstrate the worth of the theory. Gravitational lensing, and such.

                And this is where climate science demonstrates that it isn't actually a science. Although it has made many "predictions" (actually they call them projections because they aren't good enough to call predictions), none of them has come true. Only in climate science do they average garbage and expect to get gold out.

                Anybody that points out the failure to predict anything is shouted down. The worst insult is "not the right sort of climate scientist". There are two fatal, false, predictions:

                1) computer models all predict far too much warming - two, three, even more, times what is actually found on a long-term basis

                2) none of the climate scientists predicted the pause, which has lasted for 18 years an 8 months now.

                Finally, in a real science, failed theories are modified in the light of new evidence. Only in climate science is the data modified to fit the theories.

                1. NomNomNom

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "computer models all predict far too much warming - two, three, even more, times what is actually found on a long-term basis"

                  They do appear to show too much warming, but it isn't two or three times higher. It's more like 10-40%, which doesn't invalidate the theory that human emissions are warming the earth anymore than punctuated equilibrium invalidated the theory of evolution.

                  "none of the climate scientists predicted the pause, which has lasted for 18 years an 8 months now."

                  Actually the pause no longer exists in most datasets. Meaning it never existed. It was a statistical anomaly. Some scientists did warn sceptics that starting trends in 1998 over a short period was a bad idea. They didn't listen though.

                  I would say the fact warming has continued is probably the best example now of a prediction that AGW theory has got correct, mainly because it's detractors cannot claim it was an easy prediction to make. A potential falsification and the theory passed.

                  1. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    "Actually the pause no longer exists in most datasets."

                    And there we have it ...

                    “He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.”

                2. TheVogon

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "none of the climate scientists predicted the pause, which has lasted for 18 years an 8 months now."

                  I think you are a bit out of date - there is no 'pause': See http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/d/2/hadcrut4_graph_small.jpg

                  Not to mention that 2016 is expected for the third year in a row to be the warmest on record: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/global-temperature

            5. TheVogon

              Re: False premise leads to false results

              "The 97% figure is one of the things that makes me think 'hmmm'."

              It comes from here: http://skepticalscience.com/97-percent-consensus-cook-et-al-2013.html

              1. Anonymous Coward
                Anonymous Coward

                Re: False premise leads to false results

                @TheVogon: You probably should start reading here. http://www.populartechnology.net/2014/12/97-articles-refuting-97-consensus.html

                Like the HockeyStick, it is fraud. Anyone quoting the 97% merely demonstrates they are incapable of independent thought (or research for that matter).

                1. TheVogon

                  Re: False premise leads to false results

                  "Anyone quoting the 97% merely demonstrates they are incapable of independent thought "

                  Anyone quoting incorrectly as 97% of climate scientists maybe. The actual consensus was 97% of peer reviewed climate science papers. See the source I posted.

                  That global warming is happening and that man is at least a significiant cause hasn't been in any credible doubt for at least a decade now. The things really in question are how bad is it going to get, in what time scale, versus what atmospheric levels of CO2 as we don't know how accurate the models are, and what natural amplification or mitigation effects might exist that we don't yet know about?

                  1. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    Well Vogon, now I know you are a clown, not like there has been any doubt for a least a decade now.

                    You really need to educate yourself on the total GHG effect in the atmosphere versus the delta of human GHG emissions. Thermogeddon is not going to happen. The missing science is still AWOL.

                    What is more likely to happen is that idiot governments will listen to idiot pseudo-scientists and spend billions on desalination plants because rain is going to stop falling (or whatever there next wrong prediction is), making life less good for everyone. Oh wait, that already happened!

                    1. TheVogon

                      Re: False premise leads to false results

                      "You really need to educate yourself on the total GHG effect in the atmosphere versus the delta of human GHG emissions."

                      Yes, done that in much detail. The impact of human emissions of CO2 are well known, anyway. e.g. long term warming of the planet.

                      "Thermogeddon is not going to happen."

                      Depends what you mean by 'Thermogeddon'. The planet is likely going to continue getting warmer as a direct consequence of increased level of human caused CO2 emissions. A catastrophic runaway impact as I would infer from your term is apparently quite possible. For instance what happens when the permafrost melts? Or the clathrates?

                      See http://www.wunderground.com/resources/climate/melting_permafrost.asp

                      and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis

                      "What is more likely to happen is that idiot governments will listen to idiot pseudo-scientists "

                      Seems to be a particularly American thing, but yes there is apparently a risk of ignoring the problem - largely driven by a massive funding effort by those with vested interested (like fossil fuel companies) to create the illusion of an on-going scientific debate where none really exists.

                      1. Anonymous Coward
                        Anonymous Coward

                        Re: False premise leads to false results

                        "The planet is likely going to continue getting warmer as a direct consequence of increased level of human caused CO2 emissions. "

                        I think it was Burt Rutan who rhetorically asked, "If I told you that it is very likely that this plane I have designed will not crash, would you get in it?" (I did not double check the exact quote, but this was the gist)

                  2. Anonymous Coward
                    Anonymous Coward

                    Re: False premise leads to false results

                    "Anyone quoting incorrectly as 97% of climate scientists maybe. The actual consensus was 97% of peer reviewed climate science papers. See the source I posted."

                    And I posted the links where this piece of fraudulent surveying (and others) was debunked over and over again. You read not one of the referenced papers or articles.

                    That 97% of scientists who believe in AGW agree with AGW is a pretty poor showing. Apparently 3% of the believers are heretics.

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