back to article Apple gearing up for Watch BONANZA

Apple is setting up for a massive rollout of its new Watch device, if rumors are to be believed. A report from Taipei's DigiTimes cites industry sources as the source in a report suggesting Apple has ordered enough chips to power between 40 and 50 million wrist jobs. If correct the report indicates that Apple has high hopes …

  1. Steve Davies 3 Silver badge
    Holmes

    Sweat sniffing sensor?

    Well when the Fanbois see the price of the thing, they'll probably break out in a cold sweat then the lack of a sensor will be moot (IMHO)

    As to the 30-40 million, this is more than likely someone trying to big up their blog (and get ad-income) than any hard facts. 3-4 million might be even an over statement but that would dwarf the 10k/day that samsung managed so even that low number could be considered a success.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Sweat sniffing sensor?

      So you trash someone else and make alternate guesstimates yourself - well done!

    2. Lallabalalla

      Re: Sweat sniffing sensor?

      No worries: a year down the line and there'll be a sweat-sniffing version available. And we're all supposed to buy a second Watch at that point. Well, maybe. The v.1 will still be worth a lot on eBay I suppose. That's just the way Apple roll.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Sweat sniffing sensor?

        People always play the Apple stuff is junk after a year. When it's just not true - I have older iDevices still in daily use - far longer than many other tech. An older (hard drive) iPod still working fine and it's got to be at least 8-10 years old.

        Apple stuff is typically supported well by the manufacturer for years, well made and holds its value well - 2 year old iPhones still worth around half their 'new' cost (sometimes a bit more). It's your [insert other brand] smartphone that is typically replaced every 18-24 months at contract renewal when I know lots of people who buy their iPhones SIM free and go on shorter and much cheaper SIM only contracts instead.

        Yes they may pay just over £500 for the phone up front (and I appreciate not everyone can afford that) but then pay £10-20 a month instead of £30-40 a month for a subsidised phone contract. It costs the same over 2 years but considerably less if you trade in the handset or just keep it for 3-4 years plus you often have better flexibility to change network or contract within that period.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Sweat sniffing sensor?

      So your personal estimates are 1/10th of what is the article rumors, but you've decided Samsung is actually selling 10x more than reported? Easy to see where your biases lie.

      That said, I think the idea Apple expects to sell 40 or 50 million of these in the first year is ludicrous. I could see them reserving enough capacity to make that many chips if it is a massive hit, but they aren't going to actually order that many up front, and won't unless they're needed. Apple isn't going to put themselves into a position where they have to pay for tens of millions of unused chips if the Watch sells "only" 5 or 10 million.

      After all, those chips will have a short shelf life, as undoubtedly there will be improvements on a yearly basis as with the iPhone/iPad/iPod (well at least the iPod used to be updated yearly) This wouldn't be a product people would upgrade as frequently as a phone, but however successful it is you can expect larger sales in years 2 and 3 as many people will take a "wait and see" attitude about this, especially since a smart watch is the solution to a problem most people don't have.

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Apple need to learn from Ferrari and not produce too many products.

    Once everyone and their mum has an Apple gadget it loses its cool.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Everyone and their mum already has one and that's a good thing as there is more value when they work together - find friends, family sharing etc.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        ...and it has lost its cool.

  3. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    40 to 50 million units seems a high amount to order. People tend to renew their phones every 2 years because their contract lasts for two years and they are comfortable paying £30+ for what they perceive as a good handset. Tablets most people I know will upgrade them every 3 to 4 years.

    I just can't see people upgrading their watch every 2 to 3 years, so I really don't get the long term nature of this category. I would be tempted by a smartwatch, but it needs to the complete product which all the current ones including this Apple watch is seriously lacking. Especially in the battery department. I'd be amazed if this device ships 20 million. A lot of people will rightly be sceptical and baulk at the price. It's not like a phone where you get it for free on a contract, so that will put a lot of potential punters off

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Who said you have to upgrade your watch every 2-3 years - the same watch is likely to work on your next iPhone as well (as many more iUsers buy another iDevice).

      Also as for this replace their iPhone every 2 years - some may but many do not - I know people still running 3GS and 4 handsets although 3-4+ years old.

      Considering they shipped about 10m iPhone 6/6+ in the first week and the watch will work with some older models as well I'd be surprised if they did not ship at least 20m within the first 3 months. I can't remember the exact specs but if it includes a NFC chip (as I seem to recall it does) it would be a way to upgrade older iPhones to support Apple Pay etc.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Who said you have to upgrade your watch every 2-3 years

        This is Apple. The Watch 2 will have double the battery life and you never know it might have rained in Cupertino by then, so it might be waterproof as well. They will keep adding to newer watches making them faster, better battery and eventually after 2 maybe 3 years the software will start to get depreciated on the current ones and certain features will slip to try and get people back on the treadmill to upgrade it

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          I have no doubt there will be new versions - but my iPad 2 may not be as fast as the latest one but it's years old and still works fine as it was intended. The Apple Watch will be the same - a newer model will come out - it will have more features and you may choose to upgrade - but if not the old one will still work.

          I don't have my iPhone 3GS any more but the person I gave it to is still using it day-in-day-out. Old Nokias etc. may last (as they are typically so simple) but for a smartphone 4-5 years old is pretty good going.

          1. Oninoshiko

            iPad2 still works

            Really? Mine's been getting vary crashy lately. I'm strongly considering replacing it with a nVidia Shield (or another device which supports gamestream).

          2. Anonymous Coward
            Anonymous Coward

            Re:

            Yes, Watch 1.0 will still work for quite a while, but I think you'd have been less positive if you had the iPad 1 or iphone 2G. They dropped all support for those limited bits of junk quite a while back and it's not a good experience compared to ipad 2 / iPhone 3GS onwards. Watch 2.0 or beyond before I buy one, once the kinks are worked out and a killer app arrives. I'm happy to hold out for a while before being mugged by Apple (again!).

  4. andreas koch
    Coat

    Not an unreasonable number

    I even think that there could be a market for more. The article states 40 MiP sold last quarter, each wanting a companion watch. There will be more sold in the almost quarter to come until Watch release and having a new iPhone without a new iWatch is like putting Romanian remould tyres on your Porsche Panamera or buying a pair of Louis Vuitton shoes and wearing ASDA Smart Price tights with them.

    You just have to have it.

    And here's the good thing: While it shows that you are a modern, sophisticated, successful, beautiful and knowledgeable person, it can hide the fact that you only have iPhone 5C in your pocket, because your contract didn't allow upgrading on iDay. A Ferrari keyring on your Fiat key.

    So, the 40M plus the new Apple customers on Black Friday and after christmas plus the up-pretenders sounds very reasonable to have a 50M initial stock. It might just be out of general goodness to God-Bless-America to have, for a change, enough stock for the demand to avoid city centre riots and these unsightly shanty towns trailing away from the Apple stores for weeks.

    Apple Watch is, again, a very cleverly marketed and priced trinket. Nobody needs it and everybody can afford it; let me clarify: there is no urgent use for this item, so your dislike slides off it, you can't reason for or against it on an objective basis, it becomes a matter of taste and fashion or mock-taste and mock-fashion. Any argument about it will be emotional, and emotional arguments against something usually only harden the resolves of the parties involved.

    The price point is cleverly honed to peak impact: the most expensive that everyone can immediately deal with. 350 VMD is your utilities bills(water, gas, leccy, comms) bounced for a month, plus cutting the food down to staples. And, hey presto, you're a $positive_property person.

    Just my personal opinion, don't take it serious . . .

    1. turnip handler
      Headmaster

      Re: Not an unreasonable number

      "Just my personal opinion, don't take it serious . . ."

      Seriously.

      1. andreas koch
        Unhappy

        @ turnip handler - Re: Not an unreasonable number

        Yep, seriously. I nearly used the joke icon, but then it'd be too obvious and spoil it.

        Now you spoilt it, sniff.

        Upvote for the sheer irony.

    2. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      "each wanting a companion watch"

      What are you on, why do you think iPhone owners will run out and buy the Watch? It will be designed to work well with the iPhone, but it isn't going to make the experience of owning the iPhone better. This isn't one of those stupid "you can get alerts on your watch so you don't have to take your phone out of your pocket" watches that have no reason for existing.

      As far as I can tell, it is more of a fitness/health thing that's a totally separate product, but while it will have a market it is definitely only going to appeal a small segment of iPhone owners, just like fitness bands appeal to only a small segment of people today. Perhaps as it gains greater "health" (as opposed to fitness) capability it will appeal to baby boomers who are starting to enter the old and frail stage of life.

      The wildcard is the "touch" sending thing that's targeted at China (and maybe Japan too, they like really odd tech like that) but that's unlikely to move the needle very much in the US/Europe. Unless maybe that will be a hit among teens and I'm just too old and out of touch to realize it.

  5. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    so many fools to be parted with their money

    Surely there are two reasons to buy a particular watch, not always complimentary reasons.

    1. Looks. You buy a watch because it looks good. Sorry, but enough of this "it's Apple, designed by the great Jonny Ive, so it must be beautiful" bullshit. The Apple Watch is ugly. It's thick, chunky and lacks any real style. Take away the Apple logo and nobody would bat an eyelid at it sitting in the Elizabeth Duke catalogue for £14.99

    2. Practicality.This is a watch designed to monitor your health, to keep track of exercise. Yet, it's not even waterproof. So, no swimming with it on. No mountain biking or running or hiking or virtually any other outdoor activity in a country with a climate where it rains. That is quite a large chunk of the planet. I'd also hazard a guess at it not being dustproof of capable of withstanding a few heavy falls from bikes or trips when running.

    So,in the end it will sell to image-conscious idiots with no taste and no need for a sports and health monitoring watch. Ah, that would be the Apple demographic.

    It will sell by the millions.

  6. NotWorkAdmin

    Apple's wrist job

    You guys are priceless.

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