back to article Brit global warming skeptics now outnumber believers

Fewer Britons than ever support the proposition that global warming is caused by human-driven CO2 emissions, according to the latest survey. Some 48 per cent of Britons now agree with the suggestion that warming could be "mostly natural" and that the idea of it being human-caused has yet to be proven. By comparison only 43 per …

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  1. Shakje

    The question should really be

    how many scientists believe it is driven by natural causes?

    I would guess that there is a worrying disconnect in those figures.

    1. HMB

      Re: The question should really be

      How on earth would you get that information? The press in general frequently misrepresent science (e.g. Faster than light neutrinos mean physics is broken).

      There are scientists who are sceptics, but it's a hostile world for them. Any scientist doing something separate isn't going to want to stick their head over the top and upset they're funding. You only have to look at Marcus Brigstock's rhetoric to realise that it's a middle class social faux pas to challenge man made climate change theory and it's consequences.

      Challenging theories is the basis of science. It makes it particularly alarming to hear people condemning intelligent and well reasoned challenge against man made global warming.

      1. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: The question should really be

        "Challenging theories is the basis of science. "

        Lucky then that climate change is a religion. Hopefully they'll have taken account of that at the next census.

      2. Jaybus

        Re: The question should really be

        If there are huge grants for proving a human element in climate change, then there will be many scientists who believe it is man made. If there are huge grants for proving it is natural, then there will be many scientists who believe it is not man made. So aking a scientist if he believes climate change is man made is much like asking a prostitute if she likes you.

        1. NomNomNom

          Re: The question should really be

          Good job then that grants aren't predicated on the result of a study.

    2. Dave 3

      Re: The question should really be

      "A US government-funded survey has found that Americans with higher levels of scientific and mathematical knowledge are more sceptical regarding the dangers of climate change than their more poorly educated fellow citizens."

      http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/05/29/science_and_maths_knowledge_makes_you_sceptical/

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: The question should really be

      No, the question really should be "since the only opinion of importance is what the government bureaucracy believes, what fool thinks that the opinion of voters and citizens matter at all?"

    4. soreron
      FAIL

      Re: The question should really be

      once again climate 'scientists' 97 % ...real scientists 0%

    5. WatAWorld

      Re: The question should really be

      That was covered in a Reg article last month.

      The social scientists say real scientist are more skeptical than the general population.

      The social scientists figure that is a problem, but that is how we real scientists and engineers are trained to be, that is how real science works.

    6. icetrout
      Flame

      Re: The question should really be

      Seem's to me if climate change is human caused than the Over-Breeding 3rd World Planet Eaters should be held responsible for most of it & not given a "Free Pass". Oh my the Politicaly Correct halfwit's will be after me now!

  2. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Also

    Creationism is on the rise, due to evangelical churches preying on the poorly-educated.

    1. AndyS

      Re: Also

      What amazes me is the picking-and-choosing on sites like this when it comes to _which_ bits of scientific consensus to ignore.

      1. wayne 8
        FAIL

        Re: Also

        scientific consensus should be ignored. That's politics, not hard science.

        1. Anonymous Coward
          Anonymous Coward

          Re: Also

          The scientific process have discovered and improved our understanding of so many things. How can you dismiss this process when the very device you are using to write your message on is as a result of science?

          Just because climate change in inconvenient to capitalism and people who want to drive V12 Jags doesn't mean it is all rubbish.

          There's been a lot of insane weather in this country and around the world recently. The UK climate is changing, a perfect example of that is the huge rise in ticks (blood sucking parasites) that attack themselves to dogs, horses and even people.

    2. Ken Hagan Gold badge

      Re: Creationism is on the rise

      Is it? Or is it retreating to become an increasing noisy but irrelevant minority?

      My guess is that a couple of generations ago anyone with strong creationist beliefs would just have kept their mouth shut. Not because they felt oppressed or embarrassed, but simply because it wasn't a matter for public debate.

      Since then we've had a number of cases where creationists have tried to force their views into school biology lessons. Their successes are always short-lived. As soon as "normal" people notice what has happened, the creationists find themselves being voted off school boards and losing in court.

    3. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: Also

      No, some of us are actually highly educated and our view is that science and creationism can coexist. Science increasingly proves the existence of a creative force, but some people choose to draw other, irrational conclusions, but each to his own.

      1. imanidiot Silver badge
        Childcatcher

        Re: Also

        @AC

        "No, some of us are actually highly educated and our view is that science and creationism can coexist. Science increasingly proves the existence of a creative force, but some people choose to draw other, irrational conclusions, but each to his own."

        And here you are wrong unfortunately. Believing in a god is not, in it's basis compatible with science.

        The biggest and most sacrosanct question in science is: Why? (Or alternatively: "how the bleeping explative does that work?"). A scientist will always keep asking that question. No matter how well we understand the world and the universe we live in, there will be some edge were things are blurry, where we can't explain things. An edge where a scientist comes along and things: Wait, why is that?

        Believing in a god means that at some point you feel you no longer need to ask that question. At some point you decide that you don't need to find an explanation, you simply accept (a) God did it. THAT is why science and religion, in their basis are not compatible. Science CANNOT prove a creative force and there is NO evidence to even begin to suggest there could be a "design" to the universe.

        As a final note I will say this: I was raised as a Catholic. While I no longer attend a church and I no longer agree with the doctrine or dogma of the Roman Catholic Church I still believe in a god. A belief stemming from the more illogical and feeling based part of my brain, and a believe that I cannot explain rationally. It's probably a remnant of my upbringing.

        I support everyone's right to their own religion and their religious freedom, but I believe religion should NOT be involved in schools. Teaching creationism to children is cutting it awful close to religious indoctrination on young and impressionable minds. Religion has no place in education. It doesn't add anything but could arguably get very much in the way

        1. Jaybus

          Re: Also

          "And here you are wrong unfortunately. Believing in a god is not, in it's basis compatible with science."

          Science is the study of the natural (and observable) universe. As the concept of God is supernatural, the two concepts are orthagonal, and so one cannot preclude the other. It is not possible to make any correlations between the two, but they can certainly be studied individually. There are many such "incompatible" fields of study, for example music and painting.

          1. imanidiot Silver badge
            FAIL

            Re: Also

            @Jaybus

            You are wrong that science is limited to the natural universe. Science isn't even a THING the way you seem to think of it. It's not a specific field of research or something. Science is a method to understand the world around us. Science is HOW we study both our universe and any theoretical universe or entity we can think of. It means we obtaining repeatable results, that can be independently verified, or at the very least obtaining some sort of evidence that can be verified as being correct.

            All this includes the study and understanding of "the supernatural". (For which by the way there is no evidence of it's existence)

            music and painting are not even close to being "incompatible" fields of study. When taking a scientific approach there are so many things that can be studied about their relation, their creation, their impact on us humans, the creative process, the underlying social issues, etc, etc, etc.

            God does not fall outside of science. Nothing you can think of can not be approached in a scientific manner. And that's why there can't BE a correlation between science and the concept of God. Because one is a a method, the other is a thing. Things can be studied through science!

            1. Shakje
              Happy

              @imanidiot

              Sort of right, but it's simpler than that. If there was a being that was all-powerful and completely detached from our universe then it wouldn't be covered by science. There would be no reason for us to know about it. The real problem is, that as soon as such a being interacts with our universe it becomes measurable. So if there are claims of a god creating our universe, or taking part in miracles, or helping an army win a battle, or listening to prayer, or, say, sending his only son to die for us on a cross and satisfy a rather strange conception of justice (especially for an all-powerful, all-merciful being), then that god is measurable, or, at the very least, his actions are. Up until now, there has been nothing to suggest any divine intervention, so yes, your god may exist, and may be unmeasurable and unexplainable by science, but if he is, he's not the god of any major religion (close to Deism, but even then...).

              Science does point to a cause for creation, very much like seeing a fried egg points to some frying event, however, just as I don't attribute a fried breakfast to god (rather to myself or my wife), I see no reason to attribute the creation event to your god, unless you decide to take a religious text as your evidence. In that case, why not just start praising Xenu?

      2. Chris Donald
        Mushroom

        Re: Also

        How does science increasingly show there is a creative force?

        I do not believe any specific aspect of genuine scientific research either shows this or even has any meaningful way to attempt to.

        Belief is seductive, it has to be, it is an emergent property of brain architecture and is necessary for us to operate. If we could not believe and connect up possible cause and effect, we couldn't learn. The flip side is we have the ability to learn and believe harmful or nonsensical ideas. Also, we are influenceable, we have to be, for social cohesion.

        Hate the metaphor, but computer design means viruses can exist. Cell biology means viruses can exist. Mental base structures means memes can exist, these can be hooked easily into multiple levels of mental machinery including emotional ones. Making such ideas a potential part of identity, therefore an attack on these can be felt as an attack on the self.

        Climate change was pushed as a real scenario, in panic and emotion much more than pure science. As such it has the duel evil of a cult like emotional hook and an apparent scientific reality. Faced with that, it is no wonder that it became a foundation of a scientific religion deep enough to effect politics.

        James Lovelock admitted he was alarmist. What he forgot to add is emotion and cult tactics are best sellers.

        Non of this disproves any real science here. Though I do believe our own sun will effect us far more deeply than nearly anything we can do. Except maybe nuclear war.

      3. WatAWorld

        Re: Also

        One can be highly educated and believe in garbage. 20 years of learning dogma does not produce a scientist.

    4. Zombie Womble

      Re: Also

      "Creationism is on the rise"

      So is hollow earth, 2012 apocalypse and any other nutcase idea that David Icke might be promoting.

      Just because the internet has allowed these nut jobs to mutually reinforce their delusions doesn't mean anything to rational sphere living, sun orbiting, 2013 holiday planing normality.

      1. Michael Dunn
        Coat

        @Zombie Womble

        (A denizen of SW19?)

        Sorry, mate, the 2012 apocalypse has been deferred - recent discovery of a different Mayan calendar has scotched the 2012 "not with a bang but a whimper" exeunt omnes.

        Tickets for the 2016 Olympics in the pocket.

    5. Turtle

      Suitable kinds of ignorance

      "Also, creationism is on the rise, due to evangelical churches preying on the poorly-educated."

      Well how's the "sociology of science", the "sociology of knowledge", post-modernism, and belief in "The Singularity" doing?

      There's a suitable kind of ignorance for every social, ethnic, and economic class, educational level, political persuasion, and personality structure, but between creationism vs the belief systems I've mentioned above, which is, in your opinion, more pernicious and has more deleterious social consequences?

    6. YARR
      Boffin

      Genuine question about evolution

      On the subject of evolution v creationism, I have a question about evolution for the well-informed reg readership if anyone is reading this.....

      If a species by definition cannot reproduce with other species, and it takes 1 male + 1 female of the same species to reproduce, how do new species come into existence and preserve themselves?

      I thought evolutionary theory implies that changes in DNA occur due to random mutations, and that very occasionally that random mutation would create a new species that can't reproduce with it's parent species.

      Therefore, to create new species, the same very improbable mutation has to occur in both a male and female offspring living in the same vicinity and same lifetime. How likely is that?

      1. GrantB
        Boffin

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        If you are genuine, then there are lots of resources on the web that explain how all this works in endless detail. Start with Wikipedia, but I have found Dawkin's books like the Selfish Gene very good, (although he can be a little pit-bullish against Creationist's, he does do a good job of explaining clearly how we know evolution is a fact and how it all works). There is also the rather good book, a little old now but a classic called 'Origin of Species'

        To your question:

        "If a species by definition cannot reproduce with other species, and it takes 1 male + 1 female of the same species to reproduce, how do new species come into existence and preserve themselves?"

        First up species is not a very clear term. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Species

        but

        1) You may have missed that many species of life are asexual. Virus's for instance reproduce and mutate without sex, so we get new variations of the flu most years.

        2) You don't create a new ‘species’ with one mutation overnight.

        It is interesting to look an example of a highly visible mutation like that of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphynx_(cat) . These cases are relative rare as in the wild such a radical mutation would normally be expected to kill off the individual animals quickly. It is however possible that the individual animals (like this litter of cats) could have (and in fact did), survive and pass on the mutant gene by breeding with others in the population. A hairless cat breeding with ‘normal’ cats, would still produce some hairless kittens, in the same way that red-heads don’t have to breed with other red-heads to produce more gingers. If there was an advantage (or simply not a disadvantage), then the gene will continue on in the population.

        Just needs Dr Evil (Larry?) to take a family of these cats to an isolated bunker for a few thousand generations and they might diverge enough from the main population of cats to become not just a new breed, but a new species of evil cat overlords.

        Much more typically, you get tiny amounts of genetic variation that is selected for over time. An artificially accelerated case would be dogs breeds. They come in a range of sizes and skin colours as a result of gene expression, even within breeds. They all carry genes that produce the odd mutation (i.e. dwarf’s, albino’s) but most of the differences between breeds are because environmental factors (mainly dog breeders) _select_ characteristics, so over time you get large and small dog breeds, pure white dogs or red shaggy coats etc.

        Domestic dog breeds can still interbreed (though good luck on a male Chihuahua trying to shag a female Great Dane), and can even be interbreed with wolves, but probably have accumulated enough genetic variation over time to be considered as a separate species to foxes, jackals, coyotes with which they share a common ancestor (I assume dogs can’t interbreed with foxes.. not sure about jackals and coyotes).

        Point is there is no ‘new species’ of animal like a dog breed that pops up overnight and suddenly can’t interbreed with any of its parent species – as you say, that would die off. But you can and do get separate populations of animals like Chimpanzee’s and humans that share a common ancestor but can’t interbreed. Not that people don’t still try it on of course.. <yeek at that mental thought>

        Gets way more complex when you start looking at details.. but there is no chicken and egg problem like your query suggests,

      2. Leuenberg

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        No a single random mutation will not create a new species.

        That's the accumulation of a lot of mutations selected by environmental pressure other the course of thousands of generations. If an existing species is separated in two groups with two different environments, they will evolve independently up to the point of being considered different species.

        Note that the loss of the interbred capability is not necessarily mandatory and could be retained. A good exemple is the domestic and savage animals like boar/pigs or wolves/dogs who even with more than several thousands generations of selective pressure for traits not existing in the wild are still capable of breeding together.

      3. Anonymous Coward
        Anonymous Coward

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        A good example of this is so-called Ring species. For example, in the Eastern Atlantic region there are two types of gulls, from memory these may be Black Backed and Herring gulls. Here they are two species that cannot interbreed.

        However, as the species changes with longitudinal distribution, by the time we get to the Bering Sea/North Pacific, they have become a single species again.

        The problem with your question is that you are considering 'species' as an immutable division in time and space.

        Try

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_species

      4. imanidiot Silver badge

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        @Yarr

        (Note, I'm not a biologist, the following is my understanding of the biology of evolution)

        You are correct that the basic definition of one species turning into a new one "requires" that the new species can't reproduce with the parent species.

        Your confusion stems from how fast this process happens (or rather how slowly). No single mutation is going to produce an entirely new species.

        I'll give an example to explain a bit: I have a colony of lizards living on a very large island, currently connected to the mainland via a land bridge. At some point, due to an earthquacke, rising sea-level, asteroid of doom, whatever, this landbridge disappears. The lizards on the island can no longer visit the mainland to reproduce with their species their and can now only reproduce amongst themselves.

        Due to the island now being an actual island, the conditions gradually change. Some mutations amongst the lizards mean those adapted to the new conditions thrive, while the "old design" dies out. At this point the lizards from the mainland and the island can still reproduce but fertility would already be affected. This mutation and adoption to the environment then goes on. Over time the Island Lizard has changed so much it can no longer mate with the species on the mainland. They have thus become a new species. When that cut-off for "now it's a new species" is, is a bit of a gray area and hard to define, although I'm sure the biologists have a proper definition on paper somewhere.

        So the basic premise is not that a single mutation creates a new species. Its a whole series of beneficial mutations in a mostly separated community adapting to a changing or different environment.

      5. Brennan Young
        Megaphone

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        Natural selection acts on *populations*, not on individuals.

        Keep that in mind and everything falls into place. Please also disregard the stupidly named "Darwin Awards" when trying to understand how evolution works, because that is about individual misadventure. Genetics have very little to do with that.

      6. Seele
        Devil

        Re: Genuine question about evolution

        The idea of a species is, as you note, a matter of definition. If two populations of living things cannot interbreed, then by definition, they belong to different species. But reality is not so clear cut - there can be considerable variety even within a species. The scenario you present where an individual of an entirely new species suddeny appears (and cannot find a viable mate to continue the line) is very unlikely.

        Speciation is a gradual process. Populations diverge over time, accumulating differences through mutation or selection until a point is crossed where they cannot interbreed any more due to those differences. Even then there can be a fuzzy borderline where organisms from divergent populations can, in principle, mate and conceive and produce offspring, though this offspring may be unviable, or unable to produce further offspring itself.

    7. Jaybus

      Re: Also

      "Creationism is on the rise, due to evangelical churches preying on the poorly-educated."

      Oh....I thought they said "praying". Now I get it.

  3. Anomynous Coward

    "It would seem that the more people hear the arguments and study the policies, the less they like them."

    I really doubt that the average person has studied anything.

    It all just seems like two hideously biased entrenched positions hurling predictions of economic / social / environmental doom around and trying to grab followers wherever and however they can.

  4. Pete 2 Silver badge

    Science is not a democracy

    Just because the majority of the (uninformed and unqualified) public believe something to be true, doesn't make it so. The real world doesn't work like that - although I wouldn't be surprised to hear that most people think it should, and thus it shall be.

    Just like we can't hold a referendum and vote away inflation, recession or other economic woes (and denying evolution doesn't make it stop - except among the deniers).

    So it doesn't really matter what the majority of people think, hope or wish for. Science will still go on according to the Laws of Thermodynamics. The world will continue in its orbit as described by the Laws of Kepler and Einstein and politicians will still appeal to peoples' vanity by telling them that who they vote for will make a difference. All we can do is work out what the hell is ACTUALLY happening and use the best judgement of the small number of independent, yet qualified, souls to consider if anything can or should be done about it.

    Que cera cera

    1. Yet Another Anonymous coward Silver badge

      Re: Science is not a democracy

      Democracy is cheaper though.

      Umpteen billion $ for CERN to discover the Higgs Boson when we could just have a referendum on it. And if you made it a phone in vote on Trisha with premium numbers you could actually make money discovering the answer

    2. Steve Crook

      Re: Science is not a democracy

      What people think matters. Perception is almost everything. They vote, they buy stuff, they pay tax. It doesn't matter if it's true or not. Jews were not wrecking the German economy between WW1 & WW2, but someone managed to convince the German population that they were, and look where that got us.

      1. Hieronymus Howerd

        Re: Science is not a democracy

        Just when you were thinking Godwin was running late...

  5. jeffo

    Wrong!

    If you look at the survey http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/2012.06.27_Climate.pdf

    43% think "Global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by emissions from vehicles and industrial facilities"

    27% think "Global warming is a fact and is mostly caused by natural changes"

    21% think "Global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven"

    You really can't add the last 2 percentages together to make your article look better.

    1. teebie

      Re: Wrong!

      I noticed the suspiciously specific phrasing in the article too.

      Presumably "You can download the PDF, with results and methodology, here" is short for "You can download the PDF, with results and methodology, here, but we assume you won't bother, and we will get away with misrepresenting the results"

  6. MrPatrick
    FAIL

    SKEPTICS NOW OUTNUMBER BELIEVERS

    AKA More Brits happy to accept short term benefits and ignore the long term cost.

  7. David Hicks
    FAIL

    Nicely left out the progress being made

    That only -

    "21% of Americans (+1), 22% of Britons (+1) and 14% of Canadians (=) think global warming is a theory that has not yet been proven"

    So reality seems at least to have impinged on the general herd to some extent, in that only around a fifth of people in the US and the UK flat out deny it's happening.

    I'm also amused that you think it's meaningful that a large proportion of people don't want to hamper the economy right now. You know, in the midst of the global financial clusterf*** we're currently sitting in. Frankly if 43% of Brits say they would be willing to hamper economic growth for the environment it's something of a miracle.

    Also please note that they said they were willing to hamper growth, not get poorer. Your agenda is showing again, might want to pull those trousers back up a touch.

    1. g e

      Re: Nicely left out the progress being made

      It's the Anthropogenic aspect people are questioning, I don't think anyone questions some natural cycle may be taking place.

      1. David Hicks

        Re: Nicely left out the progress being made

        @g e

        Maybe they don't question that it's taking place *any more*. That is amazing progress, IMHO.

        Maybe now we can move on one stage in the discussions about what might be causing this, and what (if anything) is the appropriate action to take. One tiny step away from the morons/paid shills bellowing about how it's all a lie is one positive move in my book.

        Of course I don't believe for a second that humanity thinks long-term enough to void making life on this planet very difficult for itself in coming years. I think we'd rather bicker than deal with even clear and present danger, let alone nuanced evidence about our current polluting activities having a downside for future generations.

        Still, no sense worrying really, because you can't change people.

  8. Anonymous Coward
    Anonymous Coward

    Well done

    It's amazing what you can achieve. I hope you're feeling pleased with yourself.

  9. Tom 38

    I'm sceptical

    But I'm mainly sceptical about 'climate change' scientists, most of whom seemed to have made their mind up about the cause and effects of warming, and do their research to find the 'right' results.

    The sceptic position is harder to inhabit given the actions of some sections, who are not sceptics at all - they firmly believe there is no such thing as climate change. That's not a sceptic, that is a believer.

    1. Anonymous Coward
      Anonymous Coward

      Re: I'm sceptical

      Do you know any climate scientists? I do, they haven't "made up their minds" any more than evidence suggests is appropriate, and don't carry out research to prove their case. You wouldn't be able to get a research proposal accepted, were it not open to every reasonable eventuality.

      1. Tom 38

        Re: I'm sceptical

        The problem is for the people commissioning research, monitoring researchers at places like the CRU, political parties, green activists, "every reasonable eventuality" covers anything from "its all our fault, this is going to be a problem in 200 years" and "humans did it, this is going to be a problem in 10 years".

        Every year there is a re-design of the models, as modelling a system as complex as the Earth based upon 100 years of data is nonsensical, and their models are shown to be equally incomplete and inaccurate. "But don't worry, a little change to the model and everything now fits again" - it's statistical wankery.

        15 years ago, people doing this research were doing "global warming research", but that gave their pre-determined position away, so they went to "climate change research", and now they just say "climate research". A leopard doesn't change his spots, a researcher doesn't go into climate research with an open attitude - they already know what they are looking for.

        So, this is why I don't trust them. I don't trust the sceptics either, but they aren't trying to sell me anything.

        1. NomNomNom

          Re: I'm sceptical

          "15 years ago, people doing this research were doing "global warming research", but that gave their pre-determined position away, so they went to "climate change research", and now they just say "climate research"."

          You've derived what happened through fantasy story telling. My question is have you really fooled yourself into believing your own constructed fantasies? Because it sounds very much like you are trying to tell us what you describe actually happened.

          1. Tom 38

            Re: I'm sceptical

            I've already told you my position, I'm sceptical. This means I don't believe the accuracy of the currently presented theories, on either side.

            As I see it, the main argument for AGW is that humans have caused CO₂ levels to rise to levels that cause global warming, and therefore the only solution to decrease the amount of CO₂. What makes me distrust them is that they are not lobbying for massive numbers of nuclear power stations to be built.

            Instead, they want us to subsidise the upper middle class's electricity bills with ineffective solar, build massive arrays of (again) subsidized ineffective windmills. All this does is enrich Dale Vince, it's not saving the environment, and it's making the UK a less efficient and more costly place to live or run a company.

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